The mood worlwide is in a downward mode. Given the multiplicator of political, economic and strategic indicators, the doomsday scenario might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. There remains nevertheless a sort of no-man's land in between fact and consequence.
Certain observers are too quick to ignore the distance which still separates the shaken world order from an apocalypse foretold. The turmoil will certainly continue for a while. Hybrid warfare, trade brinkmanship, social unrest might be on tomorrow's menu.
Nevertheless all the talk about war and fatal scenarios is irresponsible. The Trump factor is taken very seriously, rightly so, but this American president is actually mostly unconsequential in the range of events that he helped to bring about. He doesn't own the chaos. He only appropriates it.
Too many are obsessed with too little. Trump is the sum of all aberrations, a culture vulgarian, decorating the Oval office in hardcore parvenu style. He preoccupies and sickly facinates because he cannot distinguish cause and effect. The same goes for his entourage that lacks any form of historical mediation. The Europeans dispise him (with meagre exceptions), the Russian (there is only one) and the Chinese (same) play the long game, leaving him to his Svengali illusions until he tires.
The economy was never a playground for amateurs.The financial crisis in the early 21st century could be managed by the adults in the room, while politicians were shown the exit. After a while the same will happen and the arsonist who tried to put the world on fire will be shown the exit.
There will always be individuals who mistrust the collective fate and who believe in unilateral warfare and protectionism. They are equally parochial in the realm of the economy and finance as they cannot grasp the complex interconnections of global policy. They distrust central bankers, the liberal forward thinkers and the globalists. Being unsavy, narrowminded, they fall for the noise and ignore the warning whisper. They cannot find Jackson Hole on their smallish roadmap.
The wake-up call will be coming. Dump measures die an infamous death. Trump will be even more often in Mar-a-Lago than now, sulking. The Republicans will have no other opportunity than to recall the few wise men and women that are currently in the wilderness. The central bankers and the guardians of the collective fate will come to the rescue, again. Jamie Dimon is waiting.....
