AMERICAN DEJA VU

Trump is back. His oratory skills are limited but he chose nevertheless to stress his direct link to God. Otherwise he indulged in the usual themes that are close to the MAGA mind: southern borders, transphobia, drilling, climate change denial, America first. The many plutocrats present got their higher import taxes nod.

In reality nothing changed since his first forgettable tenure. Still, the entourage has none of the few responsible actors who tried to reign him in then. His court of an uninformed and totally unprepared claque will not be allowed a marge of autonomous thinking.

In reality too much is said about almost nothing. The real danger lies in the vanity of a man who can be baby-talked into almost anything as long as he is flattered and feels vindicated.

The Russians, Chinese, Israelis, North Koreans know the man. The EU doesn't get him since Western Europe has been largely spared until now from a folie à plusieurs. This president has all the neurotic symptoms of a very deranged personality and his lack of discipline or intellectual curiosity create an opening for anyone who attempts to manipulate him.

He is like a fool out of Molière. Unfortunately he appears again at a very unfortunate time when member states in the EU have mostly weakened leaders and little diplomatic credit. Trump will almost certainly go solo in the Middle East, with China or Russia. NATO will have to pay for its survival. Taiwan sees its worse nightmare coming true.

Still, with the US Supreme Court taken hostage, America has enough legal and constitutional safeguards that protect it from some inappropriate take-over. The problem is more a world wide malaise. Davos was the place to be. Yesterday's stars prefer to invest in dinner invitations by Trump than to be taken in by the lure of a meeting of yesterday's globalists. 

The older guys today, Netanyahu, Putin, Modi & Co. feel certainly more comfortable with Trump than they did with Biden. Nevertheless one should also be aware of the volatile nature of accommodations that solely rest on pragmatic, short- term arrangements. The former world order lasted a long time because existing diverging appreciations did not stand in the way of a larger consensus. Freedom, trade, technological advances, health etc. benefited from a shared view from the top. Yesterday Trump already slammed the door of the WHO. He prefers the witchcraft of Robert Kennedy, Jr.

In the very near future difficult situations will occur. The EU had better start considering ways and means to dissuade this new American bizarre administration to set its moral and strategic compass on Greenwich time. Ukraine or Palestine cannot afford to be relegated to "spare parts". The EU and NATO should review the hotline to Washington, before it becomes user-unfriendly.