DID TRUMP'S FIRST WEEK SHAKE OR STIR THE WORLD ?

There is a lot of talk about Trump's first Barnum week. His "performance" (there is no other word) drives the many, who can already hardly bare to watch him, crazy.

The side-show, the court of the jester, is a sham in full action, already.

The expected roadblocks by some judges are a temporary relief. At the end of the day however, Trump's Supreme Court will follow the orders of the master .

Observers watch mostly with resignation. Soon the "delete button" will be the only escape route left from the madness. 

The Western Alliance had better get a flu shot, fast. Too much is still at stake and too little is left of the former trust, extinct for the time being.

The new anti-regulation hysteria will spare nobody and nothing. Some resistance against this free-fall might work for a while but it will give only a temporary respite.

Trump's ego is his only compass. Western leaders see him mostly as a buffoon. Others too. The difference is that the latter are willing to play his ego, out of self-interest.

The old Siegfried idyll between the US and the EU is gone for now. Only some darker harbors of former "understandings" might get a revival. The pas de deux with Kim, the eye contact with Putin, the aborted seduction of President Xi, will have a  "rerun".  Saudis will be delighted to let him build a Trump Haj Palace while Netanjahu got a new lifeline. All is well in that corner...

One should get used to four years of too much about nothing. This restless paranoid patient has no known interests other than himself. Hence America is governed by a lonely, often deranged individual, surrounded by a clique. Wrath and spite are no substitute for governing.

If only Gore Vidal were still around to write the great American  obituary.

AMERICAN DEJA VU

Trump is back. His oratory skills are limited but he chose nevertheless to stress his direct link to God. Otherwise he indulged in the usual themes that are close to the MAGA mind: southern borders, transphobia, drilling, climate change denial, America first. The many plutocrats present got their higher import taxes nod.

In reality nothing changed since his first forgettable tenure. Still, the entourage has none of the few responsible actors who tried to reign him in then. His court of an uninformed and totally unprepared claque will not be allowed a marge of autonomous thinking.

In reality too much is said about almost nothing. The real danger lies in the vanity of a man who can be baby-talked into almost anything as long as he is flattered and feels vindicated.

The Russians, Chinese, Israelis, North Koreans know the man. The EU doesn't get him since Western Europe has been largely spared until now from a folie à plusieurs. This president has all the neurotic symptoms of a very deranged personality and his lack of discipline or intellectual curiosity create an opening for anyone who attempts to manipulate him.

He is like a fool out of Molière. Unfortunately he appears again at a very unfortunate time when member states in the EU have mostly weakened leaders and little diplomatic credit. Trump will almost certainly go solo in the Middle East, with China or Russia. NATO will have to pay for its survival. Taiwan sees its worse nightmare coming true.

Still, with the US Supreme Court taken hostage, America has enough legal and constitutional safeguards that protect it from some inappropriate take-over. The problem is more a world wide malaise. Davos was the place to be. Yesterday's stars prefer to invest in dinner invitations by Trump than to be taken in by the lure of a meeting of yesterday's globalists. 

The older guys today, Netanyahu, Putin, Modi & Co. feel certainly more comfortable with Trump than they did with Biden. Nevertheless one should also be aware of the volatile nature of accommodations that solely rest on pragmatic, short- term arrangements. The former world order lasted a long time because existing diverging appreciations did not stand in the way of a larger consensus. Freedom, trade, technological advances, health etc. benefited from a shared view from the top. Yesterday Trump already slammed the door of the WHO. He prefers the witchcraft of Robert Kennedy, Jr.

In the very near future difficult situations will occur. The EU had better start considering ways and means to dissuade this new American bizarre administration to set its moral and strategic compass on Greenwich time. Ukraine or Palestine cannot afford to be relegated to "spare parts". The EU and NATO should review the hotline to Washington, before it becomes user-unfriendly.

DANTE A LOS ANGELES

Les incendies à Los Angeles sont le tribu qui est payé pour bénéficier du meilleur climat imaginable. Les vents périodiques méchants demandent leur dû.

Cette ville composite, contradictoire, est faite de contrastes qui se bousculent, trop riches, trop pauvres aussi, spectaculaires côté mer, sordides côté Burbank, capitale du porno. 

Les feux n'épargnent personne mais on peut parier que l'Oscar sera au rendez-Vous, indemne. Cette ville est la nouvelle Rome où le culte du beau et du fantasme, à court terme, prévaut sur toute autre considération. Certes il y aura des larmes mais les visagistes l'auront prévu. Sharon Stone ne saurait pleurer mais elle saura faire comme si...Son voiturier l'attendra.

On peut vivre sans dieu mais on ne peut pas être privé de rêve. Or il est domicilié là bas.

Restent les pompiers et services de secours extraordinaires qui méritent tous les Oscars....n'essayons pas d'imaginer le mème scénario en Europe....désolant.

LE DESTIN D' ULYSSE

Après plusieurs années d'absence le retour, où que ce soit, peut être un exercise périlleux.

Pour qui rentre  de Beverly Hills, capitale de l'exagération plutôt que du goût, l'expérience peut être déconcertante, eu égard aux contrastes, trop grands. Il faut bien reconnaitre que les femmes comme les hommes, extra-terrestres là bas, sont souvent super-séduisants. Le parc automobile est à l'avenant. Il regorge de Bentleys, Rolls et Maserati. Le temps y est délicieux. Les incendies périodiques le sont moins.

La question de savoir où se cachent les personnes du troisième âge que l'on voit se promener tristement dans les supermarchés Européens, cabas armés, poussettes piégées .

Le look à Beverly Hills est tout. Trump, entre autres, l'a bien compris et sait où trouver les figurants.

L'Union Européenne se porte mal. Elle a mal à la France, à l'Allemagne. La Belgique est une mini malade qui continue bien que mal à fonctionner sans se soucier du "look". L'économie européeenne fait grise mine . Les personnalités providentielles d'hier ont laché prise. L'Europe finira paradoxalement par envier les Américains qui ont trouvé en la personne de Trump le metteur en scène d'un cauchemar annoncé.

Tout celà est d'autant plus navrant qu'il ne devrait pas être impossible de remédier à cette "baisse de tension" qui s'étend en Europe. Peut être les remous attendus aux Etats-Unis créeront-ils un réveil ici.

Il ne faut cependant pas oublier de prendre en considération le rôle du high tech et de l'I.A. qui n'ont que deux maitres, Trump § Co. et la Chine. C'est entre ces deux que se décidera l'avenir. L'UE regardera ce combat de géants du haut de son petit strapontin. LMa P.M. Italienne a bien senti d'où vient le vent.

Il serait injuste de noircir une partie du dyptique et d'ignorer l'autre volet. Or les Etats-Unis ne sont pas la Californie. Ils portent le poids d'un passé raciste et n'arrivent toujours pas à maîtriser les graves problèmes d'injustice, de soins de santé ou des sans abris, qui là bas comme ailleurs font désormais partie du paysage urbain. Une forme de religiosité hybride propre à l'Amérique a également engendré des comportements qui frisent la psychopathie. Les démocrates se retrouvent minoritaires. Ils ont perdu leurs alliés naturels et ne peuvent compter que les élites universitaires laiques, les  gays et autres progressistes , femmes et hommes à égalité. Que réserve l'avenir pour Kamala ?

Beverly Hills est en réalité un mirage, une représentation sans scénario, où le décor tient lieu de réalité. Ces avenues impressionantes, ces palais silencieux semblent vides. Il se trouve en moyenne quatre voitures dans le driveway et autant de garages, mais rien ne bouge. Seuls les inombrables jardiniers (toujours Latino) apportent vie et sourire dans ce scénario pour gens fortunés. Les immigrants nettoient mème le mobilier urbain...sans oublier les services de nettoyage qui se succèdent quotidiennement. Pour tout dire, le retour à Bruxelles, poubelle européenne, est brutal. 

Et pourtant la Belgique, pays absurde composé de trois comme la Trinité, continue sa morne existence, entourée de l'indifférence de ses voisins ou de l'Economist. Elle réussit peu mais ne dérange personne. Elle n'arrive mème pas à suivre les obligations élémentaires tout en continuant d'abriter l'UE et l'OTAN, sans se tenir aux obligations requises. Elle viole impunément les règles de gouvernance éclairée et a  besoin d'un semestre pour mettre en place des gouvernements. C'est à pleurer.

Restent les croquettes crevettes,  pour autant qu'il n'y ait pas de vent, car une crevette qui s'envole accroit encore plus le déficit environnemental. La Belgique finira par se croire être un fantasme de Magritte. Ce derenier a tout dit, point besoin d'alourdir la facture.

En Europe, comme ailleurs Ulysse est réduit à voyager en éco pour se retrouver paumé à l'arrivée.

DOES EARLY 2025 FEEL'S " UNHEIMLICH " ?

It is difficult to describe the mood in these first days of January 2025. Observers feel mostly lost in a labyrinth wherein there are more questions than answers.

Given the many unanswered, or better, the ever-evolving question marks and the actions of unpredictable agitators everywhere, there are no safety barriers available.

That the world took a rightward turn is undeniable. It is often overblown. The world has known similar, even worse cycles and was able to overcome them, albeit at an enormous cost.  The Ying and the Yang have their own cycles after all.

The upcoming Trump presidency freaks many people out. This president-elect is indeed a proven, often cunning dérangeur first. While he fits often in the "culture" of the punchline and counts his supporters, home and abroad, among the undesirables, his bluster is often overrated. He is more Nero than Caesar. At the end of the day, America's handrails will prove more shock resistant than he and the MAGA "sect" imagine. The sympathy he enjoys in some parts of the world rests often with his peers, who hold onto power at the cost of legitimacy. By the way, his selection of governmental associates in crime is hallucinating. Elon Musk's latest attack against the German chancellor and his embrace of the German ultra-right only feed "unease", mostly in the EU. Europeans might try to neutralize Trump through flattering his ego but they cannot compete with a MAGA court that counts more billionaires or opportunistic flatterers than  Europe (minus Russia). His cultural, anti-immigration, anti- Woke crusade will find followers everywhere, even in the EU's democratic heartland. The Italian PM is currently enjoying the lavish hospitality of the ogre in Mar a Lago.

Two years from now the American mid-term elections will be a good indicator of the durability of the "mad man strategy". Trump argues that his unpredictability is the cornerstone of his overall  success. He forgets, or better, is oblivious of the fact that the success stories of strategic diplomacy and peacemaking resulted from trust a la carte between often disagreeing parties.

History is not a popular topic with the A.I. generation. That is too bad since history teaches that brutalism doesn't last and that a bad cycle ends up exhausting itself. By the way, today one is confronted with even more ominous challenges like climate change, the disappearing act of mercy and tolerance, creeping civil and a-typical wars or le racisme nouveau under the form of le grand remplacement. These evils will outlive the aberrations of the new and not-so-new MAGA right. America's short history  is already is packed with freaks and gurus. One more will not make such a difference in the long run. The EU had better concentrate on its homegrown weaknesses since not doing so  will give Trump & Co. more arguments to start their own pathological war against all the EU stands for.

The current unheimliche Zeitgeist has mostly aggravating external causes but it must first be addressed by internal self- confident therapies. Mental exhaustion will take care of the rest. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken's last interview should be a "obligatory reading" for all who need a compass in these uncertain times. Heart and brains beat drones.