Wednesday, December 25, 2024

THOMAS FRIEDMAN IN THE NYT ABOUT CHINA

Friedman's analysis regarding China is pertinent. People do not realize the strives China has made in half a century. From being Mao's laboratory it became the world's envy.

The amazing progress in all fields, mostly A.I., technology, weaponry and pertinence in strategic world affairs is spectacular. Otherwise the lift-off of such a large population in a more competitive middle-class society comes also with some risks. The Chinese family structure is obliged to move from the round table unit into the rectangular model, and this is easier said than done.

Today's world is not a pretty picture. China will also pay a price for its former embrace of countries that were already unreliable from the start and have become bankrupt today. Putin still does the same but it doesn't affect a combination of two known evils, while China has become the second superpower with the ambition to be the first. As Obama said before, Russia remains a regional power, with all the malign consequences it brings with it.

China is self-conscious and culturally arrogant. It always was so and President Xi knows how and when to activate Chinese historical identity. This is also a reason why Taiwan is such a difficult cypher to break. The Shanghai Communique lost one of its main creators in the person of Dr. Kissinger. Together with President Nixon he managed the coup du siècle, with the opening to China. Tragically, no successors were found for this golden, albeit uneven era of American diplomacy. Probably the Chinese will take into account Trump's shaky wanderings in international affairs because besides India and maybe Japan, the theater where partners meet runs empty. The EU became a poorhouse, the UK retains the pomp but has little pertinence and the Gulf States are too selfish to look beyond their narrow self-interest.

Chinese history is not always pleasant but it obeyed a set of rules and retained a discipline which makes for a predictable pattern of political and diplomatic behavior. It is not an aggressive power beyond what it considers to be its own (Taiwan, the Spratly's, border dispute with India). Overall it demands to be recognized as a major player. Nobody should underestimate the many susceptibilities which survived the emperors and dynasties that ruled by ritual and ceremonial distancing.

The new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs might look Western but their à la carte bonhomie shouldn't fool anyone. When the Chinese smile, the alarms should set off.

I for one will be happy to return. I'll read Friedman first.

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