LE PAPE ET LE ROI

Le pape a décidé d'entamer le processus de béatification de Baudouin 1, roi des Belges.

Cette décision, tombée du ciel (c'est le cas de le dire) a surpris le gouvernement, l'épiscopat  et les Belges.

Le Belge moyen est devenu indifférent par rapport à la religion, en premier lieu le catholicisme. Ce revirement se situe dans la foulée d'un nombre d'évènements . L'église a très mauvaise presse dans l'histoire de la colonisation du Congo. Les nombreux scandales qui sont venus à jour et le laxisme de l'autorité religieuse ont fortement ébranlé sa crédibilité. Les évènements au Moyen Orient ternissent en Europe à la fois les religions qui s'opposent sur place et la religion en général.

Personne ne conteste le charisme du roi Baudouin mais il n'était pas sans défauts. On peut s'interroger sur son attitude au sujet des évènements qui ont tristement marqué l'indépendance du Congo. Il a refusé de signer la loi votée par le Parlement, légalisant l'avortement conditionnel. On peut objecter qu'il a ainsi failli à son serment.

Ce roi reste estimé et aimé. Avec la reine Fabiola ils formaient un couple d'autant plus extraordinaire que les Cobourgs avant eux s'étaient surtout fait remarquer par leurs écarts.

Baudouin n'avait vraiment pas besoin d'un reliquaire alors qu'il reste dans les mémoires et les coeurs un homme souvent autoritaire mais toujours de classe.

THOMAS FRIEDMAN IN THE NYT ABOUT CHINA

Friedman's analysis regarding China is pertinent. People do not realize the strives China has made in half a century. From being Mao's laboratory it became the world's envy.

The amazing progress in all fields, mostly A.I., technology, weaponry and pertinence in strategic world affairs is spectacular. Otherwise the lift-off of such a large population in a more competitive middle-class society comes also with some risks. The Chinese family structure is obliged to move from the round table unit into the rectangular model, and this is easier said than done.

Today's world is not a pretty picture. China will also pay a price for its former embrace of countries that were already unreliable from the start and have become bankrupt today. Putin still does the same but it doesn't affect a combination of two known evils, while China has become the second superpower with the ambition to be the first. As Obama said before, Russia remains a regional power, with all the malign consequences it brings with it.

China is self-conscious and culturally arrogant. It always was so and President Xi knows how and when to activate Chinese historical identity. This is also a reason why Taiwan is such a difficult cypher to break. The Shanghai Communique lost one of its main creators in the person of Dr. Kissinger. Together with President Nixon he managed the coup du siècle, with the opening to China. Tragically, no successors were found for this golden, albeit uneven era of American diplomacy. Probably the Chinese will take into account Trump's shaky wanderings in international affairs because besides India and maybe Japan, the theater where partners meet runs empty. The EU became a poorhouse, the UK retains the pomp but has little pertinence and the Gulf States are too selfish to look beyond their narrow self-interest.

Chinese history is not always pleasant but it obeyed a set of rules and retained a discipline which makes for a predictable pattern of political and diplomatic behavior. It is not an aggressive power beyond what it considers to be its own (Taiwan, the Spratly's, border dispute with India). Overall it demands to be recognized as a major player. Nobody should underestimate the many susceptibilities which survived the emperors and dynasties that ruled by ritual and ceremonial distancing.

The new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs might look Western but their à la carte bonhomie shouldn't fool anyone. When the Chinese smile, the alarms should set off.

I for one will be happy to return. I'll read Friedman first.

THIS SINKING FEELING

I left America where Nero is waiting in the aisle. I arrived in Europe which is heading for the evil iceberg, oblivious.

Nobody can predict where Trump's ship of fools is heading. It is not hard to foresee a European meltdown wherein the normal powers get busted and wherein the "new normal" (Hungary, Italy, i.a.) starts to set the tone.

The EU is on life support. The former first tier countries, France and Germany, appear exhausted. Poland and the Baltics have their own regional legitimate priorities. Even the Netherlands appear suddenly insecure. If Belgium were ever get its act together it might be smart to return to the former Benelux  model which rivalled, often successfully, its European counterparts.

Brussels is the perfect place for hosting the European headquarters and NATO. It lives in its own chaos; it doesn't interfere in the latter and doesn't count in the former.

Nevertheless the overall geopolitical situation is dire. It is bad enough that the EU feels like a ship without a captain. America appears to become overloaded with mostly uninformed, clueless personae, whose lifespan solely depends on the mood of a narcissist. The happenings that come out of Mar-a-Lago have all the ingredients of some Peplum technicolor in the Sixties. Melania fits the bill.

All this could be almost trivial if the rest of the world were still on some normal trajectory. There are enough nutcases, human tragedies, evil players to make one homesick for the times of Kissinger. He was far from faultless but he was able to put roadblocks where need overturned caution. The current Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, will be missed. This man of modesty and class deserves gratitude and respect.

The final year of President Biden was a painful act to swallow. Fortunately his government and especially his close advisers in foreign affairs, defense, economy, finance, infrastructure, made for a sterling legacy. 

Miracles are a thing of the past. One must beware of a future wherein the weakness of one and the craziness of the other create the perfect storm.

LE PARDON DE BIDEN

Le président sortant a réalisé un beau score. Sans enthousiasmer les foules il pouvait se prévaloir d'un nombre considérable de succès et d'avances, sociale et économique. L'âge l'a rattrapé. Il est dommage qu'il n'a pas su maitriser une ultime étape qui le  laisse affaibli et surtout otage jugements contestables.

Voilà qu'il a pardonné son fils, en contradiction avec ses déclarations antérieures. On peut comprendre le père sans approuver pour autant le président. Ainsi il a terni sa réputation et embarassé les démocrates. Hunter Biden est une personnalité ambigue qui a manifestement mal géré des erreurs de jugement qu'il n'a d'ailleurs jamais contestées. En tout il a fait preuve d'un cynisme permanent.

Tout homme d'état a ses conseillers qui veillent à ce que les faiblesses et faux pas restent sous contrôle et n'apparaissent pas aux heures de grande écoute. Biden avait besoin d'être moins vu, moins subi, moins entendu. Ses sorties sont devenues pénibles et ses commentaires embarassants.

L'age peut exterminer la raison tempérée. D'aucuns ont maitrisé leur sortie...de Gaulle, Mandela, Gorbachev. Biden semble n'avoir retenu de l'âge que l'aspect naufrage. Il méritait mieux...