TOMORROW'S CURSE ?

There is a lot of talk with regard to Trump's recent electoral victory. It has been called lots of superlatives, while the balance of power has hardly changed. America remains mostly a house divided. What has happened is that the MAGA's will be in full control of all the branches of government until the midterms, two years from now. There still remain some Republican dinosaurs who might make the MAGA coup not a done deal.

Until the inauguration in January a lot can happen. Musk's new DOGE machine is ready for the onslaught. The various, often surreal nominations for the cabinet appear to be more about kissing the ring than about outlining policies.

How this freak show is being considered in Moscow or Beijing is a sobering consideration. That the same envoy will deal with Russia and Ukraine should scare any informed observer of international affairs. Suffice to go back to the "good days" of the Cold War and imagine that the Soviet Union and Finland were supervised under the same US umbrella. This would have been considered, rightly so, as a tacit approval of Finlandization...the Trump administration is already suspect of making deals with Russia, on the back of Ukraine or NATO. Everything has to be done to support Ukraine's independence and choice of destiny. One had better be beware of  giving Putin an inch because his aim is to break up a world order that collides with his interests. Unfortunately, while Trump is transactional and unreliable, the West is weak, devoid of leaders and lacking self- confidence and pride.

The foreseeable negative trend in America thrives partially because of European indecision. The military, social and economic disarray in the EU is accelerating because of a failing overall leadership. Germany is on hold, France becomes a Rubik cube with no end in sight. Here and there the populists raise their heads and fists. The undercurrent of anti-Semitism is becoming really alarming. The Commission in Brussels is unloved and too large for its own credibility. The EU Council cannot come to terms with Viktor Orbàn & Co. The world is packed with dead and ailing bodies, left after the slaughter inflicted by the unanimity curse. The Security Council of the UN is a corpse. The mortuary is making room for the EU.

The overall situation could be less dramatic if instead of indulgence in self-fulfilling prophecies, people were dialing         911 for a start.

The next months will be interesting. They might also be sobering. The dollar will rule, also in Moscow.  With friends as these, who needs (more) enemies?

AU REVOIR MADAME LABHIB

Exit Lahbib , entre Bernard Quintin comme Ministre des Affaires Etrangères en Belgique.

Le président du MR annonce, le Premier Ministre Alexander De Croo encaisse. Ainsi fonctionne la particracie en Belgique.

A priori le nouveau titulaire a, contrairement à Madame Labhib, un beau palmares. Ce n'est donc pas la personnalité qui dérange, c'est une nouvelle fois un système politique bancal qui indispose.

La Belgique est devenue l'otage de personnalités qui peuvent trop souvent opérer en dehors de tout contrôle parlementaire. 

Les ombres chinoises dictent la politique. Si les exécutants apparaissent souvent débiles c'est que leur profil n'est devenu  qu'un accessoire pour leurs mandataires .

D'aucuns se posent la question de deviner si Bart De Wever, prochain Premier Ministre, choisira le modèle Gaston Eyskens ou Jean Luc Dehaene, plutôt que d'être le dindon de la farce...de toute façon Thanksgiving c'était hier. Les parieurs préfèrent la premiere option, celà promet du plaisir.

THANKSGIVING 2024

Oscar Wilde suggested that there are only two tragedies in life. One being not getting what one wants and the other being getting it. This could as well be the perfect epitaph for today's America. Many are shell-, or better, Trump-shocked. The mood gets worse with each designation that comes out of Mar-a-Lago's gaudy theater of the absurd. The incoming administration covers an arc that goes from the pathetic (Marco Rubio) to the demonic (Sebastian Gorka). 

America is a democracy and Trump's victory is absolute. He gave the forgotten males an umbrella and promised to keep them safe from the godless, leftist, woke intellectuals who rule the coasts. This is surprising since the US economy is the envy of the world. It also proves Thomas Piketty right when he argues that capital return is stronger than the rate of economical growth. Obviously the voters didn't buy the assertion that the trading room is a weapon of financial destruction of the common man.

It is far too early to predict the outcome of this "coup". The awakened MAGA beast might be hard to get back into the cage of failed experiments. Unleashed it might create a havoc too few saw coming.

This Thanksgiving feels more absurd than ever. The parade in Manhattan will be at the same time festive in a Norman Rockwell way and somewhat frightening in a mad Disney way. Beverly Hills will look its usual empty, devoid of people and "normal "air to breathe. Some Americans feel solace in their current gloomy bestsellers, or better in Cabo where the brown people stay rather than emigrate.

The world will have to adjust to the uncomfortable seating arrangement during the long, four-year flight. The Asians will adjust, the Africans of sub-Sahara don't count but for some raw materials, the Middle East will skip the journey all together and the Europeans will suffer all Angsts in their cramped seats. The EU has already an economy on life-support and a defense out of a Plautus satire...ça promet.

John Updike said that America is a vast conspiracy to make one happy. Unfortunately the luxuries don't make up for the necessities.

"VLAAMSE" TOETSEN

Met Demir en Weyts zijn "inheemse" toetsen "in". Aan het licht van zoveel domme uitspraken wordt het normaal dat velen  zich de vraag stellen wat de dwergregeringen in Belgie nog voorstellen.

Overal in de E.U. staan de signalen op rood. De wereld, in de eerste plaats de V.S., wordt onvoorspelbaar. Men staat zker niet te wachten op Belgie, dat het zelf niet meer haalt in een voetnota in The Economist of in de versleten Belgenmoppen, die vroeger nog een publiek vonden in Frankrijk of Nederland. De lachspieren werden ingeruild voor medeleven.

Bart De Wever verdient respect om toch nog te proberen een regering te vormen die misschien nog kans maakt orde te her- stellen in begroting, defensie, klimaat, buitenlandse zaken, kultuur, gezondheiszorg, die nu in de spoedafdeling zijn ondergebracht.

Ondertussen praat de "Vlaamse regering" verder voor eigen aanhang (die er nog is) , in de vogelkooi die dienst doet als "Vlaams" parlement. De Walen doen het beter of tenmiste discreter in Namen.

Spaak, Harmel, Dehaene zouden met ongeloof dit triest  spektakel bekijken en helaas moeten incasseren dat Belgie in de E.U.voortaan niet langer meetelt. Onze ministers worden nog "ondergaan" maarer wordt niet meer naar geluisterd. Het klinkt onrechtvaardig, o.m. voor Alexander De Croo, maar als je telkens weer  voor een Europese beslissing nog X aantal akoorden moet afdwingen binnenlands, gebeurt dat op de rug van de  geloofwaardigheid.

Dit beroert de "dwaallichten" in de Belgische regios niet. Dat het land ondertussen verkommert laat ze koud. Het helpt wel de verkoop van "The ugliest houses in Belgium", een internationale bestseller. De straten komen nog aan beurt voor een vervolg in de serie.

Blijft de Opera....De Munt werd terecht onderscheiden als de meest creatieve Bühne in Europa...Het ontbreken aan "Vlaamse toetsen" zal waarschijnlijk  in Genk en elders kwaad bloed zetten, met de gevolgen vandien. 

Leopold II sprak over "petit pays, petites gens", nu zou hij het meervoud moeten gebruiken..."petits pays", inderdaad.

BERLIN CALLS MOSCOW

Whenever the Germans and the Russians are talking, jitters appear.  Brest-Litovsk, Rapallo, the non-aggression pact with Russia, the Ostpolitik created, an unfortunately, rightly proven, malaise in Europe. The German Chancellor's calling Putin last week raises again the usual questions. Olaf Scholz heads a dying coalition inside and is almost a non persona outside. Besides breaking ranks with the EU and NATO, he leaves Kiev with unanswered questions. That Biden allowed Ukraine to use long- range missiles against Russia right now, will be seen by many as non-coincidental.

Obviously, sooner rather than later, one will have to talk to Moscow. Since this will be more than just small talk, this will require coordination with, and agreement of all. One should realize that the change of administration in Washington might create chaos and lead to a reversal of fortunes. Already Europeans know that the lovefest with America is a thing of the past. They should stay clear of clumsy initiatives they can hardly afford in this political international no man's land.

The United States is still a democracy until January. What might come later looks ominous, given President Trump's well-known deficits, both in history and personal chemistry. He despises what he perceives as Western European's condescending attitude. He likes A.I. because it doesn't talk back.

Europeans should be alarmed and better pay their NATO contribution in full, before getting rightfully humiliated. Macron's ideas regarding a degree of EU's strategic autonomy are correct, but coming from the French they become almost fatally suspect...

At least the French receive the benefit of the doubt. Since Helmut Kohl, the Germans have lost a lot of their luster. Angela Merkel's descent into purgatory is unfair, compared to Margaret Thatcher's continuous adulation. 

While leaders with global reach appear in the Middle East and Asia, they have become an endangered species in America and Europe. They fought AIDS and COVID successfully but the spread of populism keeps growing.

L 'AMERIQUE DESABUSEE

Le monde va mal. Il craque de partout. On enregistre (à peine) l'accident et on oublie les victimes.

L'Ukraine est une blessure permanente. Le Soudan est une amnésie. Ailleurs, en premier lieu au Proche-Orient, en Europe et en Asie, les certitudes se fragilisent. La guerre froide d'hier est devenue "fable" ou BD.

Arrive par dessus ce triste bilan ,Trump. Il fait beaucoup parler de lui, ce qui l'enchante. Celà est une excellente raison pour en parler moins, ce qui l'enrage. Déjà il rassemble son entourage, prévisible, et par conséquent inquiétant. Marco Rubio, à qui il réservait le sobriquer de "little Marco", deviendrait le Secrétaire d'Etat...On croit rêver. De toute façon les MAGA qui "débarquent" sont toutes et tous du mème aloi... opportunistes.   

Le camps adverse a besoin de sang froid et de recul . La bête doit être ignorée avant d'être achevée.

La victoire de Trump contraste avec la descente aux enfers de plusieurs leaders Européens. Les mèmes causes ont conduit à des résultats opposés dès deux cotés de l'Atlantique. Néanmoins on tend à exagérément dramatiser, comme si le système solaire était à tout jamais dérèglé. Il n'en est rien. Les péripéties politiques portent en elles le germe d'un terme annoncé. Plus grave est sans doute la hâte manifestée par les MAGAphiles à vouloir s'engouffrer dans le convoi gagnant, avant qu'il ne déraille .

Ces trains éphémères de grande vitesse empêchent l'observation plus maitrisée de la complexité. Celà finit par créér les conditions pour que les conflits, l'immigration, l'I.A. ou la perte de légimité des démocraties, apparaissent irréversibles. Faux ! Les nouvelles alliances, le bruit des populistes, le racisme le plus élémentaire bénéficient à court terme d'un bail sans doute, mais point de la durée

L'Amérique se remettra. L'opposition a perdu une bataille. Il est dommage que le reflexe anti-féministe reste aussi coriace. On se retrouvera en 2026 pour les prochaines législatives. On jugera un bilan a mi-terme qui apparaitra alors comme une syncope qu'il eut mieux fallu éviter.

 L'Europe, débarassée de la présidence Hongroise, pourra pour sa part enfin mieux considérer les suggestions pertinentes de Mario Draghi pour un réexamen et une thérapie urgents. 

Trump est moins toxique que son vice président. Le premier est usé, le suivant est pressé. 

Oh les beaux jours ...Pardon, Samuel Beckett.

VANCE VICTOR

Trump won. Kamala lost. And the winner is Vance. 

The MAGA tribe clicked with the Trump/Vance anti-immigrant stance and felt comfortable in the civil war which rages between the coast and the "fly-over" rest. The former Republican Party is dead...for now.

Kamala Harris was too abstract, too "French" maybe, to break through the imagined frustrations that still rule many hearts and minds in the heartland. The regular American male is impervious to sophistication and largely suspicious of metaphysics or abortion. The vice-president ended up being seen as an urban, elitist candidate with too little understanding of mostly the common male Angst.

Trump was "entertaining", personal, incoherent but forgiven for the non-stop lies and transgressions that made him male- friendly. Kamala won over educated women and men, straight and gay. Probably she was too often seen as a "one issue" candidate and ended up alienating a large chunk of the traditional Democrat electorate. Her choice for vice-president backfired. Waltz is a true loyal gentleman but hardly a match for his unscrupulous Republican opponent. The governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, would have been the better option.

Trump has every reason to move fast. Biden's last months in office will be bittersweet. His own party is unkind. This man of another age already shows nevertheless more class than others, inviting the president-elect to the White House and going to the inauguration of a man he must loathe, rightly so.

The world will have to adapt to this new administration which may excel in chaos or bluff. Already the new vice-president, who is far more slick and slippery than his boss, receives more attention than other vice-presidents, even before inauguration. But he might have to protect his turf from Elon Musk, another vulture that Trump will let loose in a divide et impera mode. His entourage had better be on notice.

The culture war will only get nastier.

HET VERDRIET VAN BELGIE

Het Westen kampt overal met een soort legitimiteit storing. De V.S., Duitsland, Frankrijk o.a. lijden aan een kronische  moeilijk te definiëren aandoening, een politieke Krohn ziekte die hun psyche ontvricht.

De Belgische stilstand heeft minder te maken met existentiele problemen dan met een soort neurotisch ingebouwd provinciaal isolationisme, dat leidt tot een soort vervreemding en "non-actief". Dit land heeft niet langer een buitenlandse politiek, een defensie, laat staan een macro ekonomische bedrijfcultuur.

Het blijft uitkijken naar een federale regering. De onderhandelingen slepen aan en de lawine van het begrotings- tekort dreigt elke therapie met de dag  pijnlijker te maken. De onderlinge absurde regeringen maken ook een enge bedroevende indruk. De Vlaamse regering overweegt nu een soort bona fide taaldrempel test die alleen maar de "know how" van buitenlands talent aan de deur zet en leidt tot een een onvriendelijke integratie . De betere tijden van Flanders Technology en Jan Hoet's Chambres d'Amis zijn voorgoed voorbij. Blijft nog het dwaallicht in Genk.

Van Loo en Lanoye zijn de melancholische vertolkers van een vergeten melodie. Moest Bart De Wever Eerste Minister worden dan zal hij schrikken  van de ontoereikende middelen  waarmee hij zal worden geconfronteerd. Hij is intelligent genoeg om daaruit de pertinente gevolgen te trekken. Belgie verkeert in een zelf gegraven put. De meeste poltici zijn taal en internationaal onkundig. Zelf Conner Rousseau, het SP Wonderkind, begint meer te passen bij zijn Tik Tok truien dan in een aangepast profiel voor de internationale Buhne.

Waarschijnlijk blijven er nog personaliteiten over die nog de drempel van enige staaatszin kunnen bereiken. Van Peteghem, Vandenbroecke, Bertrand, Prévot zitten in dat peleton. Spaar het land van de Michels. Lahbib zit veilig in de EU onder het sceptisch oog van Van der Leyen....Ouf !

Belgie, droogt U tranen en bestraft liever de partijvoorzitters from hell, (Mahdi en Prevot uitgezonderd) .

TRUMP'S KRISTALLNACHT 5 11 24

The magnitude of Trump's win is awesome. His mandate is absolute in political terms.

Kamala Harris' loss is a slap in the face of the more liberal leaning Americans.

The Democrats' nakba is a tragedy for the men and women who still believed in the rescue of the American dream. The dream ended up in the gutter, like Richard III's crown.

The consequences for Americans will be enormous, given that the Senate and House will be under MAGA control. The Republican Party is dead, partially by its own moral betrayal.

There is not much that the traditional Western allies can do, since Trump's wrath will roam free. Netanjahu and Orban will be relieved. The axis Pyongyang /Beijing/ Moscow/ Teheran must feel glee. NATO, the EU, the Five eyes, Ukraine and Taiwan mostly, will have to regroup. The forgotten wars everywhere, and climate will wait. Destabilizing trends will amplify unabated.

America will cope, eventually, but the country is broken for now. It is impossible to sort cause and effect. Already some argue that Biden stayed too long, that Kamala Harris presented herself too often as a women's candidate. Both comments are largely unfair and the fable of the angry American male who flocked to Trump's machismo is unconvincing. It is far too early to make definitive assertations.

In the short run the dubious Trump court, packed with unpleasant characters, will remodel the ailing leftovers of the American democracy. It looks ominous, given the actors already under consideration.

At least Western Europe might benefit in some perverse way from this nightmare since some of the best will prefer to wait and see in more welcoming places than in America's heartland.

At the end of the day Kamala Harris' defeat is America's shame.

THE IDES OF NOVEMBER

America today doesn't make sense.

There is a president who inhabits some Ionesco scenario out of "Exit the King". Normally, one could expect him to represent calm and reason at times of scarcity of both. The reality is that everybody wants him to remain out of view...and remain silent. This is an ungrateful world alas wherein a too long goodbye , as Biden's, is already becoming a shroud which covers his impressive social and economic achievements. Times as these require a Churchill or a De Gaulle.  Even Macron would do. 

It is hazardous to predict the outcome of Tuesday's election. Both candidates sound and act exhausted. Both focus on parts of the electorate that they might have neglected for too long:  the vote of Generation X for Trump, the "frustrated" (read: dumb) males for Kamala Harris.

Trump is more wicked than he appears. Kamala is more sociologically wired than her stump speech often sounds. In reality, the day after Tuesday could unleash a beast that will unabashedly roam free. American institutions have become weakened through open hostile infiltration. A Faustian pact with the devil became normalized.

 History has a poor reputation in this country and it shows. The bitter aftermath of Europe's or China's "mistakes" should have taught Americans a lesson. The "costume MAGA parties" look ridiculous but they are, in real terms, frightening.

Whatever the outcome next week, America will lose once and for ever its fraudulent Disney image. There will be violence. If Trump were to win, the Pinochet mantra might appear in the Northern hemisphere. If Kamala Harris wins, a MAGA cataclysmic apocalypse will be unchained. Already the preparation is under way.

There are enough anti-genes in America to build up resistance but the rules and standards that apply in the better half will have to fight an uneven battle. Gerrmany's Reichswerh had a honor code after all. The manipulated MAGA hordes follow only the SA or SS .

The world at large looks on, most with fear, some with relish. The USA will sooner or later have to reexamine it workings. The democratic majority rule doesn't apply. The branches of government are independent in name only. The Supreme Court has become an alternative path for a political take-over. Societies come with their own perils, that is why they need the likes of Pasteur or Salk to survive. Here and now, America might end up with Musk and Robert Kennedy, Jr. instead.

Bonne route !