Friday, October 4, 2024

PROCRASTINATION IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS.

In international affairs the vocabulary follows the situation. New concepts appear that earmark the changing tides in the world. Political science drives the conceptual changes.

Recently, since Israel's interventions in the Middle East, the term "proportional" appeared. It means that the retaliation for aggression or grievance is supposed to be on equal or comparable terms. Obviously when one is at a loss for words, sophisms will do. They are meaningless.

The arc of world affairs is a sobering phenomenon to watch, certainly from a Western perspective. After Yalta, the competing alliances between the USSR and the West left little room for third parties to intervene. The unstoppable rise of China changed all that. The largely accepted, or better endured American hegemony came slowly to a halt. A plethora of other, minor players changed the meridians of power. Where the battle royal was an affair of a few, the situation deteriorated, becoming a multiple, a less ideologically driven, permanent conflict between groupings driven by ambition, resentment, economical advantage or post-colonial revenge.

The United States was for a while the deus ex machina, able to stop conflict, manage the world, or act as the final arbiter. Dr. Kissinger was the last American statesman, the ultimate broker, and entertainer of almost planetarian relevance. Now we hear President Biden begging Israel not to cross the line which separates proportionate retaliation from overkill. So the better intentions get lost in cynical assessment. Such a nebulous appreciation can boomerang in other theatres wherein the parameters of conflict are interchangeable. The free-lancers-- Iran, North Korea, Belarus and to a certain degree Russia and China--will benefit from never-ending conflict by proxy. Wars have to come to an end, rather than being dragged on forever. Indeed this only leads to escalation. The termination of conflict is seldom pleasant but the continuation of back and forth weaponized hybrid intervention should be stopped by all means. A deterioration, in full view or a fall in oblivion (Sudan comes to mind) are perverse.

The American secretary of state is still the only one who travels the world in search of compatible arrangement, from Gaza to Haiti. Nobody acts, most stoke, few actively support. In the realm of ambiguities, the bad actors find their turf. The addiction to the proportional only prolongs conflict and can lead to a vicious metastasis. In given situations the Holbrooke method works. The Bosnian tragedy ended with a couple of bombs that hit "by accident" the Chinese embassy in Belgrade...so be it.

To return to the Middle East, only a Madrid bis and a two-state commitment can stop the madness. The Israeli P.M. has to go. The terrorist interlopers must be shunned once and forever. Europeans should finally quit their low-profile here and elsewhere. Unfortunately, the EU feels like an empty room and the ones that force the door are not the ones one wants. 

There is only one way to reverse course. Procrastination is the abandonment of self-esteem. Evil doesn't respond to proportionate therapy. It must be eradicated by all available means, even with the support of other less-likable opportunistic partners. The world doesn't take reservations anymore, tables are shared.


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