AMERICA BETWEEN GOOD AND EVIL

Americans in both parties look exhausted. Never, since the Civil War, has the country be as divided. The Democrats fight an uphill battle. Trump looks and sounds often demented but his strength lies in the connection he forged with mostly rural, often southern parts of the country, that are often evangelical and conservative. Kamala Harris appears too close to San Francisco and to the more sophisticated, liberal "elites", while in reality she is just a liberal, sophisticated persona, deferential to the changes that occur in society, demography, culture and the new economy.

It is certainly paradoxical that Donald Trump, New Yorker, wealthy parvenu, became the crusader for the often less-affluent, less-educated, predominantly white male voters. This doesn't stop some of the wealthiest, often found among the High Tech wizards, to forego his vulgarity and to lend him generous financial support. Elon Musk acts as his Goebbels. The Hitler precedent comes often up but the Fuhrer in the early 1930s looked rather smart....  The international cabal (an arc of contradictory countries which covers such unlikely countries from North Korea, Russia to Israel...) favors the like-minded (?) MAGA candidate.

Kamala Harris needs to clearly distance herself, as much as courtesy allows, from President Biden, who showed again how dangerous he can be when allowed "free speech". His comments about the Trump followers are erasing the gaffes of the comedian who made the unfortunate utterance regarding Puerto Rico. Biden became a godsend for the GOP. Kamala must think "with friends like these....".

The polls are inconclusive, the mood is somber. If Trump wins, America will enter into a repetitive pattern of deconstruction and revenge. If Kamala Harris becomes president, the MAGA Sturmtruppen will repeat and expand on their January 6 Capitol riot and sabotage the rule of law. Internationally, Trump will not be shy to embrace Orban rather than Macron or to find a deal with Putin on the back of Zelensky. While the remnants of the former world order are under fire by the expanding BRICS, the EU and NATO might well arrive at the conclusion Wir schaffen das NICHT.

A Harris presidency would be applauded by most in the EU and be approached with caution worldwide. She is a persona with class, a woman with a contemporary mindset, a Mensch...In so many words the choice is easy, between a healer and a destroyer.

BELGISCHE REGERINGSFORMATIE IN ECHTENACH MODE

Het duurt, tot vervelens toe. De financien zieltogen, bedrijven worden ondermaats, het bestuur is ongeloofwaardig. De troep onderhandelaars doet voort. 

Nergens ziet men zo een stel weinig aantrekkelijke,slecht of onheus geklede, slecht bespraakte individuen "non stop" optreden voor de cameras. Soms leek het of RTL een monopolie had van miserable kadrering ( o.m.waarbericht rond de sympathieke Farid of kunst (?) en filmkriek in het Journaal) maar nu hebben wij de formateur en apostels. Mahdi en Prévot (zou een goede minister van buitenlandse zaken zijn) zijn uitblinkers. Rousseau kon beter zijn opwachting maken voor West Side Story.

Het draait allemaal rond de "supernota", maar wat uitlekt is niet van aard om het vertrouwen in een nieuwe efficientie te herstellen. Dit land is de opdeling van bestuur en verantwoordelijkheid beu. Het wil europees en internationaal herrijzen. De vorming van een Brusselse regering is niet langer een mop maar een tragedie, zoals de metro,de burgemeesters, het urbanisme (?), de verloedering van milieu, verkeer, diensten...armoede.

Nemen die lui ooit een vlucht uit Zaventem of Charleroi (!!!!!!!!!!!!) en durven zij het vergelijken met elders ? Uieindelijk blij ven ze misschien beter t'huis want zelf de goede bedoelingen (Mevr. van der Straeten) leveren alleen maar ongewenste resultaten op. 

Een bezoek van Ensor's intrede van Christus in Brussel in Los Angeles ( natuurlijk opnieuw aan Belgie ontnomen) ware aan  te raden . Christus heeft het beter in Californie dan moest hij in Belgie zijn gebleven !

BRIC(S) A BRAC

Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa were the original BRICS. Now they are joined by Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey is applying for membership.

In the past, Western steered alliances ruled the world...SIC TRANSIT ! The former Western world order is no longer. NATO is a beggar's opera. Bush killed the American inroads in the Middle East. Obama's Asian grand design is dead on arrival. The EU became what it is, an ambition drowned in a pool. 

The new axis of evil engineered by Putin should alarm the West. What it might lack in engineering or focus, it compensates with  some form of nihilistic acrimony. They come together less about goals than because of shared resentment. Putin has showed how he can master hurt feelings and imagined humiliation. This is all the more ironic since this former KGB apparatchik is the heir to the Gulag and the various coups in Prague, Warshaw and Budapest (Remember Mr. Orban?). True, China's Tien An Men follows the pattern.

What is at stake here is the Russian strategy to break the world into pieces. The growing falling apart of coherence, or a guiding agreed philosophical Meridien, benefits the freelancers. Russia watches while the American Secretary of State runs to  exhaustion.  Netanjahu's thank you note might well be joining the BRICS, club of enemies.

Meanwhile the American presidential campaigns are giving free elections a bad name. Thanks.

ADAM GOPNIK REGARDING "THE UNMAKING OF AMERICA" (The New Yorker Oct.21,2024)

The US economy is booming. It is the envy of the world. Creativity rules... So why is the mood so somber? 

Elections and campaigns seldom bring the best out of people and candidates. In the US, the tone and tenure of Trump hits rock bottom. Kamala Harris stays on course but she cannot stay idle and ignore the lies and insults that multiply by the hour. In his latest "performance", with the blessings of the cardinal of New York, Trump surpassed himself in vulgarity and name calling.

Surprisingly the race is tight. Trump holds on to his followers, predominantly found among males in his predictable middle and southern zones of "influence", and among plutocrats he seduces with taxes on imports and tax breaks for themselves. He is supposedly making inroads with some Latino and Black voters. Vice-President Harris scores in the large cities and seaboard, with women and students.

The Republicans, or better the "Trumpians," focus on border security, immigration, and a mix of baloney, insults and complots. The Democrats follow a defensive, classical design wherein trusted alliances and creative social engineering stand central. 

Obviously there is more to it than just a summary of headlines. Here lies the perverse turn of this campaign, unlike any other. What is at stake is an existential outcome. If Trump wins, the end of America as we know and trust it, becomes a reality. The monsters that lie quiet will be awakened. The EU and NATO will need to regroup. The Middle East will be "free for all". Taiwan will be in shock. Russia & Co. will send heartfelt congratulations. The rest of the world will probably cope. One often forgets Australia...wrong! There is also Netanjahu of course but he is a closet Trump fan anyway...

If this is not ominous enough for a global freak-out there are the perverse implications of a real American coup d'état, a reversal of values, a vindication of imaginary persecution and deep-state plots cooked-up in abortion clinics and campuses, in art galleries and theatres. Trump imports his expensive bibles from China rather than trusting the Christian printers next door.  One can bet the cardinal is happy to support the enemy of women's rights over another imported dark Indian candidate.

Gopnik writes about the Apocalypse to come if Kamala Harris were to lose. Already many usually more serene observers note with some Angst that the outcome feels too close for comfort. The noise is always louder than reason of course, but given the existential nature of this critical watershed, one must hope that the better angels will prevail. The question remains how angels will force the remaining closed minds to open and to break through the walls of prejudice and of a perverse, fascist Welt Anschauung. 

BART DE WEVER EN ECHTGENOTE SERVEREN

Bart De Wever bekoort de perslui met koffie en Cola. Hij is een intelligente, geslepen politicus. Hij kent ook zijn Machiavelli.

Nochtans is er is er in zijn "entourage" te weinig plaats voor een meer internationaal afgestemd imago. Het blijft in de eerste instantie Vlaams baggeren, à la Demir. Sinds Jan Wolkers heeft turks fruit trouwens een " reputatie"...

Jammer, want dit land is internationaal meer en meer deficitair geworden (EU, NAVO,VN, Buitenlandse zaken, Onwikkeling, defensie...). Het heeft niel langer de invloed die het nog kon verzilveren tot Jean Luc Dehaene.

De schaarse berichtgeving ivm. de onderhandelingen over de nieuwe regering zijn trouwens zorgwekkend. Als men de weinige prestige zuilen ( o.a. Munt, PSK, KMI) die nog overblijven gaat toebedelen aan overkoepelende overheden, gaan die verloren. De teleurgang van de Belgica is de laatste alarmbel. De ramp van de opsplitsing van buitenlandse handel blijft ook een negatief dividend afleveren. Bart Eeckhout's alarmbel in De Morgen (19/10/24) is daarom pertinent, helaas.

De formateur kent geschiedenis en precedent. Van hem kan toch worden verwacht dat hij zijn overings opmerkbaar parcours als burgemeester en ook zijn succesvol partij profiel kan inruilen voor een internationale, europese meerwaarde. 

Hij zou ook nog zijn zoon kunnen aanraden niet te paraderen met een soort romeinse verwijzing -SPQA (!)-, die beter past bij  Nuremberg dan Antwerpen .

YAHYA SINWAR

Crimes, enfin rattrapés par chatiment. Exit le monstre.

Il faut surtout espérer que les otages encore en vie retrouvent maintenant liberté et dignité.

Sinwar porte une énorme responsabilité. Il est le premier responsable de l'enfer de Gaza.

Maintenant il est temps de commencer à panser enfin les plaies et de donner une chance à un redressement.

LA FRACTURE AMERICAINE

Il devient de plus en plus apparant  que les Etats Unis traversent une crise qui est désormais structurelle.

Le parti républicain n'existe plus. Donald Trump lui a porté le coup de grâce. Reste un amalgame de frustrés, manipulés par une idéologie qui allie plusieurs contradictions. Elle se présente comme le chef de file d'un nouveau libéralisme mais elle tient un discours ouvertement réactionaire et isolationiste. Les références macro politiques et économiques sont franchement incohérentes.

Il faut reconnaitre que ce poujadime à l'américaine est désormais une réalité. Si Trump devait accéder à la présidence les répercussions tant à l'intérieur qu'à l'extérieur seraient immédiates. 

En Amérique le rêve américain est devenu cauchemar. Les divisions échappent au rationnel. Les antipathies sont "armées" et les camps sont devenus incompatibles, faute de pouvoir trouver des solutions, voir même des compromis. Celà se traduit encore dans un "remake" du genre Houellbecq ou carte et territoire deviennent comme les copies conformes des deux Allemagne avant la chute du mur de Berlin. Aujourd'hui le mur qui divise les Etats-Unis en camps opposés suit mème un trajet topographique, une ligne de démarcation entre urbain et le reste, entre laic et religieux, entre côtes Est et Ouest, entre modialistes et isolationistes, entre Fox News et les autres....

Dans le monde aujourd'hui rien ne s'arrange parce que tout le monde attend. L'Amérique ne trouve pas de partenaire parce que personne n'ose se pronocer ou choisir alors que l'on risque d'être confronté avec Trump qui n'entend pas être l'otage d'un héritage encombrant. Dans ces conditions le Moyen Orient, l'Ukraine, la mer de Chine, le Soudan, entre autres, attendent. 

On dit à juste titre que la présidentelle américaine revêt en 2024 un caractère complexe en raison de l'incertitude qu'elle ceée tant à l'intérieur qu'à l'extérieur. Quel que soit le résultat, l'Amérique sera confrontée à un "après" qui risque d'enflammer les esprits. Une fois le nom du président connu, les incertitudes internationales n'attendront plus. Trop traîne depuis trop longtemps. Une administration Trump trouverait immédiatement des alliés qui seraient par définition les bêtes noires d'une administation démocrate. L'Union Européenne ou l'Otan  craignent l'avènement de la première et souhaitent surtout le succès de la seconde.

En attendant tout le monde attend. L'ouragan viendra. Son intensité est difficile à prédire.

TOM LANOYE

Tom Lanoye kreeg de prijs der Nederlandse letteren, hem uitgerijkt door koning Filip.

De eer is terecht en voelt aan als een weliswaar te korte opheldering in de Vlaamse teloorgang. Vlaanderen zit opgescheept met een aantal weinig aantrekkelijke excellenties die waarschijnlijk niet gaan afhaken van de vlaamse baksteen saga. Cultuur en vernieuwing werden opnieuw ondergebracht in de onderste schuif. Zelf "Flanders Technology" of "Chambres d'amis" die een echte euforie in het leven roepten zijn "have beens".

Het moet dus niet verbazen dat de Vlaamse overheid geen goed woord had voor de bekroning van deze in Noord en (verlicht)Zuid geprezen, onvoorspelbare Lucifer. 

Blijven Palieter en de bloeiende boomgaard (overings niet te misprijzen) die nog door de enge vlaamse beugel kunnen. De Schelde is niet langer gesloten, de verbeelding wel. Weyts en Demir o.a. zijn niet "the stuff dreams are made of".

PROCRASTINATION IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS.

In international affairs the vocabulary follows the situation. New concepts appear that earmark the changing tides in the world. Political science drives the conceptual changes.

Recently, since Israel's interventions in the Middle East, the term "proportional" appeared. It means that the retaliation for aggression or grievance is supposed to be on equal or comparable terms. Obviously when one is at a loss for words, sophisms will do. They are meaningless.

The arc of world affairs is a sobering phenomenon to watch, certainly from a Western perspective. After Yalta, the competing alliances between the USSR and the West left little room for third parties to intervene. The unstoppable rise of China changed all that. The largely accepted, or better endured American hegemony came slowly to a halt. A plethora of other, minor players changed the meridians of power. Where the battle royal was an affair of a few, the situation deteriorated, becoming a multiple, a less ideologically driven, permanent conflict between groupings driven by ambition, resentment, economical advantage or post-colonial revenge.

The United States was for a while the deus ex machina, able to stop conflict, manage the world, or act as the final arbiter. Dr. Kissinger was the last American statesman, the ultimate broker, and entertainer of almost planetarian relevance. Now we hear President Biden begging Israel not to cross the line which separates proportionate retaliation from overkill. So the better intentions get lost in cynical assessment. Such a nebulous appreciation can boomerang in other theatres wherein the parameters of conflict are interchangeable. The free-lancers-- Iran, North Korea, Belarus and to a certain degree Russia and China--will benefit from never-ending conflict by proxy. Wars have to come to an end, rather than being dragged on forever. Indeed this only leads to escalation. The termination of conflict is seldom pleasant but the continuation of back and forth weaponized hybrid intervention should be stopped by all means. A deterioration, in full view or a fall in oblivion (Sudan comes to mind) are perverse.

The American secretary of state is still the only one who travels the world in search of compatible arrangement, from Gaza to Haiti. Nobody acts, most stoke, few actively support. In the realm of ambiguities, the bad actors find their turf. The addiction to the proportional only prolongs conflict and can lead to a vicious metastasis. In given situations the Holbrooke method works. The Bosnian tragedy ended with a couple of bombs that hit "by accident" the Chinese embassy in Belgrade...so be it.

To return to the Middle East, only a Madrid bis and a two-state commitment can stop the madness. The Israeli P.M. has to go. The terrorist interlopers must be shunned once and forever. Europeans should finally quit their low-profile here and elsewhere. Unfortunately, the EU feels like an empty room and the ones that force the door are not the ones one wants. 

There is only one way to reverse course. Procrastination is the abandonment of self-esteem. Evil doesn't respond to proportionate therapy. It must be eradicated by all available means, even with the support of other less-likable opportunistic partners. The world doesn't take reservations anymore, tables are shared.

VANCE / WALZ : A DRAW

The debate between the vice president candidates was generally civil and was more a draw, with a slight advantage for Vance, who gave a slick performance wherein style compensates for his continuous evasion.

The Republican was able to distance himself from Trump's unstoppable vulgarity. The Democrat acted flustered. At the end of the day observers will retain more the body language on view than the intended persuasion of either. That is a pity because Walz scored on accuracy, obliging the Republican to run for cover, or better for ignoring the question.

It is doubtful that the debate has changed many minds. One can count on Trump to set the timer back on lies and bluster. Men age, and in the process they tend to lose their more attractive sides. Vance's advantage was more a question of better looks than right ideas, but here comes the next GOP leader.