BETTER DEAL WITH THE EVIL YOU KNOW THAN WAIT FOR THE REPLACEMENT YOU DON'T.

After the Russian coup that wasn't, the comments coming from the clueless proliferate. Suddenly everybody saw it coming and political post-facto appropriation fills the airwaves and the usual CNN talk shows.

The few who have knowledge stay mute, some who had some prior info remain silent, and the usual specialists have a free run to spin. 

One can assume that the US, the UK, Australia and New Zeeland are in the know since they have an ad hoc agreement for sharing relevant info regarding security. 

It is wise to follow the situation with the uttermost caution, given that the paranoia in Putin's power structure must run amok. Russia is not a normal country and given the little one knows about the putative contenders for power, it is advisable to watch, rather than to delve into whatever too few might know too little about.

Putin is a personality which remains non-transparent. There are enough indications however that should encourage restraint rather than outburst. This nuclear maverick is unpredictable. He might be tempted to refurbish his credibility on the back of Ukraine, knowing very well that many NATO members (like Belgium), who do not comply with the contribution requirement of 2 % of their GDP, are international riff raff. The chessboard belongs only to the US, China and himself.

Washington stays stoic, wisely so (notwithstanding the usual Biden gaffe). 

Lukashenko found in this sordid imbroglio an outlet to make him larger and to climb higher on the ladder of Putin's esteem. He is no longer the Leporello.

Better stay on the side lines. Putin might auto-destruct. He might also rise from the ashes. What comes after him might be even worse, so it is to be recommended not to interfere. 

Ukraine is the only imperative piece in this game of chess. The West had better review its qualitative and quantitative involvement during the next NATO summit. All the rest is for the usual suspects to talk about, with Amanpour & Co.

L' ALBATROS BELGE

Il semble après tout que le gouvernement, résigné, ne tombera pas. Après la saga Iranienne la ministre des Affaires Etrangères ne sort pas grandie de l'épreuve. Dommage car elle a eu un parcours interessant en tant que journaliste. On peut aussi s'interroger sur son savoir-faire, alors que la présidence de l'Union Européenne l'attend au retour. George Louis Boucher qui est son "parrain" a indibutablement donné plusieurs fois la preuve qu'il est davantage fait pour la zizanie que pour la réflexion. Madame Lahbib devra creuser l'écart entre elle et cet éternel survolté.

Le Premier Ministre, personnalité appréciée, est l'otage de présidents de parti plus soucieux de garder le controle d'un système qui les arrange que de le corriger. La Belgique est mal gouvernée et s'enfonce de plus en plus dans le dysfonctionnel généralisé. Rien ne fonctionne. Alexander De Croo ne semble pas être en mesure d'imposer une valeur ajoutée d'efficacité à son gouvernement. L'état fédéral  est désormais réduit à son plus modeste commun dénominateur.

La Wallonie est un cauchemar permanent pour amateurs d'RTL. La Flandre semble être séduite par le modèle Hongrois. Bruxelles ? C'est la descente aux enfers et dans la crasse. Comment ôse-t-on ?

Si le confédéralisme devait présenter une alternative rationnelle, pourquoi pas...mais il faudrait le considérer sous condition que la prolifération de pouvoirs, de bourgmestres, d'intercommunales mafieuses, de communes ridicules disparaisse en mème temps. Or en Belgique on court toujours le risque de multiplier plutot que de soustraire.

Les élections législatives prévues en 2024 risquent de faire mal, d'autant plus que les électeurs voteront avec la rage qui est légitime eu égard à l'implosion de tout. Il peut paraitre injuste de critiquer autant le fédéral alors que les états fédérés ont des tics de sous-préfecture et des intérèts de paumés pour carnavals  en Wallonie ou à Alost. 

Les préparatifs pour la célébration du 200ème anniversaire du royaume sont engagés . On peut parier que le metro Bruxellois ne sera pas prêt, que le Sablon finira par être le frère jumeau de la place du jeu de balle et que Charleroi gardera son titre de ville la plus laide d'Europe.

Quid novo ?

PUTIN

The Russian tremor passed, as many unspoken dysfunctions there usually do.  The players in this sordid scenario all share an identical DNA. The rest of the world watched and opted wisely for silence. The Russian society appears like a nihilistic experiment better to be observed from some distance than to be subjected to close scrutiny. Under Putin the society went under. The humiliation that a group of freaks was able to inflict on the regime will resonate for a long period of time and is being closely watched everywhere.

Russia appears now almost more barbaric than its normal posture--already unpleasant in more "normal" times--generally conveys. Nowhere, besides the usual suspects like North Korea or Lukashenko's gulag, is the rule of the bulk as merciless. Ukraine is the vicious demonstration of a kind of almost fanatic disregard for life and dignity, truth and repentance. The Ukrainians fight for a cause while Russian soldiers are lost, uninformed souls in a conflict which they can hardly understand, given their disbelief in fighting others that in so many ways were so close.

The fact remains that Putin lost the control of the narrative and that his paranoia will only increase. He was always an unpleasant customer. He might become unpredictable, trying to show off rather than to come to terms with former President Obama's assessment of Russia as a "regional power". The Russians were never able to come to terms with Western nonchalance regarding their bombast. Only Trump fell for the lure of being regarded in Moscow while the rest of the world watched him in disbelief.

Putin becomes more dangerous now since he will have to prove that he controls both the narrative and the establishment around him. He was dented but not crushed. Russians seemed to be more blasé than worried. The West remained cool but one can bet that China, India and Russia's clients elsewhere watched closely, some out of political angst, some out of financial or sordid panic.

In this episode without structure, devoid of ending, both Putin and Prigozhin are alike. The Wagner mercenaries will still be active in Africa, or wherever their turf and payroll might be. None has any existential investment. The Russian people have seen it all. The West remains aloof, wisely so. Let them auto-destruct. One lost, the other didn't win. Too bad, both the play and the actors are so unappealing....

THE PRICE OF LUXURY VERSUS THE RISK OF NECESSITY

The Vulcan accident resulted in the death of five Titanic-obsessed, who paid hard cash to satisfy their little obsession. The rescue was impressive, international, expensive and relentless. The coverage by the media wiped all other relevant news from the screen. The accident became the ultimate show and the pictures of the five soiled passengers continue to stare at us. A sad ending for a folly à cinq.  It remains to be seen if the bluff or the malfunction will be the main culprit in this sordid, journey into a David Cameron "remake" for the meek.

In 2015 the drowning of the Syrian toddler Aylan Kurdi in the Mediterranean provoked an universal revulsion and emotion. Today the same sea has become the catacomb of too many who were cheated into paying for a dangerous passage for an arbitrary opportunity to fare better in the illusion of Western Europe. Both the journey, and the arrival for those who make it, are stories of humiliation and disappointment with no end. They don't receive the dignity of regret, and there is hardly a coast guard which comes to their rescue.

The Vulcan saga became the thing, obliterating Ukraine, Sudan or the Rohingya, i.a. The news cycle and the chase to find a quantitative niche therein are distorting truth and urgency. The race to be in the news has killed conviction, truth and reliability. The Twitter policies favor quick indistinguishable uninformed resolution over illuminating consideration. The Vulcan had it all going: money, celebrity, arrogance, and it's demise is sad indeed. The hundreds of refugees remain nameless, packed on the deck of their coffin to be. Few notice. In death and in life they are hardly worth a penny.

C'est la vie, c'est la mort de beaucoup.

 

BIDEN

Most men of Biden's age have a hard time balancing normal physical deterioration with intact intelligent agility. This exercise can be painful and humiliating. One lives under unforgiven scrutiny to prove that undisputable assaults that are part of the aging process do not necessarily come with a diminished analytical acuity. Accordingly ,a lot is being written about King Lear in the White House...wrong ! 

The Ukrainian hellfire has the expected horrible consequences. Kiev became also "the" place to be seen, recently by African leaders who would do better doing some house cleaning at home, and to understand that neutrality between evil and right equals  betrayal. This sad show only reminds us how much Mandela is missed.

Time is running out. So are options. The next NATO Summit in Vilnius will be important. Since Putin does not want to enter into a rational diplomatic alternative,  Zelensky is entitled to receive even larger support from the EU and NATO. The time of "niceties" is over. Containment is right as long as it does not equal unwarranted restraint.

The US is the only factor that really counts. China has to be checked, the EU needs to remain united, others should just abstain if they cannot choose their camp. 

The Biden administration is slowly but surely laying down a couple of markers. This is also done bearing in mind that if Trump were reelected, the ceiling would fall down. Never imagine that this avatar without conviction or scruples spends his time in Mar-a-Lago just playing golf or hiding boxes. He surely has his pen-pals on edge. Hence, Biden is discreetly preempting any form of possible nefarious backlash, in case he were to lose the presidency. He is reshaping the deck of cards with major players: China, the EU, the Middle East, Australia. Africa is a moving target for now, more inclined to favor short-term gain over long-term commitment. The BRICS are a vicious challenge, that needs urgent attention.

It is obvious that the world order which was the topic of yesterday's sophisticated Davos exchanges is no longer. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is trying to replace the former marble blocks by a more pragmatic material, which might allow a renewed, forward-looking order. Putin is showing how a provincial, unyielding paranoia could end up in another Hitlerian Gotterdammerung .

Old men (and women) are occasionally tolerated for a bon môt. They should however be listened to when they get it right, although their speech might lack sparkle.  Besides, the existential choice is once more about enlightenment over obscurantism. So it is wise to stay with the person one respects, rather than to give a free ride to the one everybody in his right mind distrusts. Unintended consequences should be avoided!

EXIT PASCAL SMET

Il faut féliciter le Secrétaire d'état Bruxellois d'avoir assumé sa (co)responsabilité dans la désastreuse affaire de la présence des maires indésirables, Iranien et Russe, à Bruxelles. 

Il laisse aussi un héritage d'urbanisme peu reluisant, du type Charleroi plus. Après tout il est aussi socialiste.

Cette personnalité, indubitablement intelligente, laisse une succession difficile. 

Il sera interessant de voir si la Ministre des Affaires Etrangères  suivra son exemple et quittera une fonction qu'elle n'aurait jamais du occuper. Après tout, les visas sont de son ressort.

LES IRANIENS A BRUXELLES

Il y a Ispahan qui fait rêver  ....il y a Teheran qui fait peur.

Or on a vu le maire de Teheran (et sa suite) à Bruxelles ou se tenait une réunion de maires, dont personne n'a entendu parler. Il y avait aussi un maire Russe, pour les amateurs.

Tous les participants sont supposés avoir eu les papiers et doccuments d'entrée en règle. On trouve toujours un Schengen obligeant.

Ni la ministre des affaires étrangères , ni le responsable Bruxellois, Pascal Smet, se sont clairement expliqué. L'une brille pars son absence, le second est l'anti Adolphe Max, transformant Bruxelles en tarmac.

Cette nouvelle histoire belge démontre la décrépitude d'un système livré à l'incompétence de présidents de parti qui ne voient pas plus loin que leur misérable arrondissement, offrant des postes à leur concierge (La méthode Trump).

En attendant, les barbouzes Iraniens ont pris leur piéd dans la crasse urbaine de Bruxelles et le maire de Téhéran aura pu laisser sa carte de visite chez Olivier Vandecasteele.

CONNER ROUSSEAU

Conner Rousseau is een van de meest markante figuren in de Belgische politiek. Hij heeft de "look" en de communicatie voor zich. Hij heeft zijn partij een moderne dimensie gegeven.

Jammer dat deze "new look" voorzitter van de SP, niettegenstaande al dat talent, de keuze heeft gemaakt niet uit de kast te springen maar er uit te glijden. Hij heeft een banale erkenning van feiten herleid tot een verhaal op zijn vlaams dat waarschijnnlijk klaar is voor een invoeging in het volgend vlaams canon.

Rousseau heeft genoeg bewezen dat hij een interessante politicus is maar nu dreigt hij crediet te moeten inleveren na zijn ondermaatse "coming out", zonder ironie, plezier of opluchting. Kijkt hij niet naar CNN ?

De geruchten waren al legio en hij heeft de kans gemist om daar gebruik van te maken voor een bevestiging met pit en humor. Wij zijn  in 2023! Moet Vlaanderen nog steeds de pastoor in de bloeiende wijngaard blijven spelen ?

Had Rousseau gekozen voor een angelsaksisch model van progressieve humoristische commentaar dan zou hij universele bijval hebben mogen oogsten bij denkend, creatief Belgie.

Aantrekkelijke mannen verliezen hun sex appeal als ze opkomen als mama boys. Conner ! sex is fun, gay or straight. Nobody gives a damn. Enjoy !

THE MOTHER OF ALL DAMS

If someone thought that we had witnessed the peak of vicious intent in Ukraine, the latest developments might very well represent yet another escalation in the horror which is reinventing itself:  for Russia to inflict, for Ukrainians to suffer and for the world to endure.

From the start, Putin avoided using the terms "war" and "invasion."  Under the cover of his "special operation" he stepped right into the frenzy of razing everything that made Russia still bearable, albeit with question marks. 

Unleashing the floods now and creating another escalation in his preferred dysfunctional methodology, he keeps reinventing the degrees of hybrid warfare. 

The Ukrainian David continues to resist and to stand firm.

Conflicts tend to follow, generally, a predictable pattern, ending in some form of unequal fatigue. This current conflict is more the project of a madman than a deliberate goal-centered enterprise. The Russian Goliath looks like a pathetic obese beast that is no longer able to control its path.

Given that the war crimes pile up it is unlikely that the usual, often well meaning peace makers will appear. The witch's brew has become too toxic to approach it. Zelensky will receive even more support than he does now. The times for restraint regarding the use of armament by Ukraine are over. Putin's grotesque staging in the cavernous Kremlin has already become another silly Pavlovian failed scenario, made for a Chaplin sequel.

Europeans should be made even more conscious of the monster they harbor on their eastern flank. There are still cynical and envious pariahs left who are too happy to coalesce with the false allure of the Russia/China axis. The romance between these two pushovers is a calculated move neither of them enjoys. The pack of unreliable lackeys who show up to cash a check, are yet another form of Narco-politics a la Russe.

The Kakhovka dam bust might well be Putin's Waterloo, the difference being that if one battle was gallant, the present horror of the Russian onslaught is too outrageous to pass scrutiny.

SANDA DIA

Alors qu'Olivier Vandecasteele est devenu le symbole de la victoire du bien, emportée à l'arrachée, Sanda Dia représente la dérive du système.

L'université de Leuven, la Justice, la nébuleuse de clubs équivoques sont tounées à l'aigre. Sanda Dia apparait désormais comme un ange exterminateur d'une société qui n'aurait jamais du quitter le banc des accusés dans des conditions aussi contestables.

Il faut continuer à respecter l'indépendance du pouvoir judiciaire, mais les questions deviennent légitimes quand certaines ambiguités socio économiques traversent la transparance des motifs.

Il est certain que l'issue de ce procès a été téléguidé inconsciemment par une composante sous-jacente, corporatrice/raciste. Le jugement intervenu ne rend pas justice à la victime. Il ne s'agit pas de vindicte mais d'équité. Sans doute ne doit on pas revenir sur cette issue déplorable ni déclencher un ersatz de lutte de classe. A contrario ce procès restera dans les annales comme un exemple de tout ce qui peut aller mal quand on vole à la victime jusqu'à la dignité de sa mort.