VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY ONE YEAR LATER

President Zelensky is being compared to the greatest and the unexpected...to President Kennedy himself, albeit the moral compass of both leaders is not really a match.

He is considered an existential persona, different from the many leaders who, for the most part, carry the pieces of their broken ambitions. Paradoxically, the Ukrainian amidst the mayhem looks more alive than his Western counterparts, who often seem haggard and lost in a brew of guilt and scrimpy computation.

Putin is civilization's nemesis but he is not without "friends" or skills. Russia, China & Co. can count on the laissez faire of a swatch of countries that feel snubbed or ignored by the G7.  Russia appears yet again, as during its repetitive history, impervious to spontaneous rebirth.

How long can the West maintain its policy of handing the Ukrainians enough to resist but not enough to win? Should the West remain de facto a passive onlooker while Putin is colonizing Crimea under the pretext that it was Russian in the past?

Ukraine needs the weaponry that allows it to hold the Russians in pinchers and to attack them in the back. Restraint can only be considered when the rules of war and engagement are respected. Ukraine is being slaughtered by a power which is not beholden to any form of behavior and makes war crimes a plat du jour.

President Zelensky and his family are setting standards that few can emulate. He should not be pushed to the limits and must be saved from any form of an imposed,  unholy arrangement.  One should never forget the successive betrayals by Western Europe before World War II.

One can be assured that Ukrainians  too " beware of Greeks bearing gifts".

EU : NOTHING NEW IN THE EAST ?

Often it feels as if people do not pay enough attention to what is happening in the world. The sound and fury around us might stun us into a form of complacency or fatigue. Under the current circumstances such an attitude is self-defeating.

In less than one century the world is reverting to its former nefarious self.

Washington sees its worse nightmare coming back.  Dr. Kissinger and President Nixon pursued every opportunity to stop America's worse geo-political nightmare, a "special relationship" between the Soviet Union and China. Today the Russia/China partnership is becoming a reality.

After the Soviet Union met its ungainly end, it seemed as if the Iron Curtain became a thing of the past. The Putin curtain call shattered all illusions and Europe finds itself more divided than ever.

These two ominous adjustments have consequences. 

The Putin/Xi Jinping "axis" might be half-hearted but it will increase the number of countries that prefer to stay on the sidelines. Future and current major players will hesitate, more than before, getting involved in rivalries that provide them no dividend.

The Ukrainian nightmare will only increase the fatigue of the ones in the Western part and increase the resolve of the Bucharest Nine in the East. The Brussels EU and NATO chores are becoming highly unpopular, in part because they are led by personalities imposed by the Western half that hardly lives up to its Treaty obligations. Brussels has the appeal of a provincial city without allure. The existing dynamics all point to an Eastward alternative. Western Europe might be under pressure to rebalance its power projection eastward, back to the Habsburg realm  and Poland. In the West it is mostly the UK that shares the burden. It always felt closer to the US than to the French/German pair, which has become unconvincing. Poland emerges as the reliable partner for the Americans who are, rightly so, tiring of some European's baby-steps.

Americans appreciate good "casting". Europeans do with amateurs rather than with skilled actors who are able to play the role while also giving it content. Russians follow the Ivan the Terrible model, wherein there is so much noise that rational or needed compassionate thinking die an unglamorous death.

2023 will surprise us, undesirably alas. President Biden, the quiet man, might appear the better leader after all, more" in sorrow than in anger ".

POMPOMPOMPOM

L'hymne national n'est jamais chanté, rarement entendu et reste non revisé...à l'image du patient Belge, que l'on cache poliment sous les édredons qui couvrent les malades terminaux.

Il ne restera bientôt plus assez de place en Belgique pour héberger tous les gouvernements et administrations qui se trouvent à l'écart dans leurs principautés misérables. Rien ne va plus. L'aide humanitaire, la défense, l'immigration, B Fast, les secteurs de l'énergie et du milieu ont atteint la quote d'alarme, non sanctionnée.Le gouvernement fédéral est incapable de gérer ce chaos qui devient aussi alarmant que scandaleux. Comment pourrait-il en être autrement quand les ministres sont des franc-tireurs qui obéissent à des présidents de parti plus préoccupés de plaire à leur fief que de gouverner.

La derniere crise des sans-abris est franchement immorale. Que la secrétaire d'etat responsable garde ses fonctions est proprement inconcevable et indigne des ambitions prétendues de ce gouvernement .

L'opinion publique ne suit plus. Elle risque aussi de préférer n'importe quoi plutôt que de devoir subir plus longtemps ce naufrage qui est au demeurant couteux. Le retour à l'histoire qui fait rage en Flandre trouvera des émules ailleurs. Parions que RTL, spécialiste du genre ringard/gite/Gilles de Binche, nous servira des Princes-Evèques avec l'accent belge.

Aujoud'hui le gouvernement Flamand est en crise. Les Wallons sont trop occupés (non embarassés) par la gestion de la corruption qui déborde, comme la Vesdre. Bruxelles doit gérer les tarmacs urbains désolants ,genre de Brouckère, et la guerilla entre transports, créés par les Verts et le P.S. 

On a atteint le sommet du ridicule. Il est normal que les Ministres Dedonder et Lahbib préfèrent leur coiffeur à la rencontre avec leur pairs, car celà devient trop embarassant. Le Borinage est une mauvaise case de départ pour affronter les problèmes dans ce monde multi-polaire.

Que faire ? Il faut en premier lieu mettre fin à une déterioration horizontale qui nuit au peu de prestige qui reste au pays. Il devient nécessaire que le gouvernement fédéral fasse preuve d'indépendance par rapport aux présidents de parti. Il convient de saisir le parlement d'une proposition raisonnée visant à recentrer, simplifier, élaguer tout ce qui provoque les embouteillages de responsabilités et de fonctions . La Cour des comptes, le Cour constitutionnelle, la Banque nationale, le bureau du plan sont des références.

Le Ministre Mathieu Michel a promis de sortir le Palais de justice de son échaffaudage. Les gestes symboliques mais visibles comptent. On verra bien. Il est temps d'accorder au pays un nouveau souffle, ce qui ne se fera que par un processus de récupération et de réajustement. On attend des projets mobilisateurs.

 La Brabançonne attendra aussi...

LAHBIB AU CONGO

La Ministre des Affaires étrangères Belge s'est rendue au Congo. Je doute qu'elle ait reçu la qualité d'attention que l'un de ses prédecesseurs ,Louis Michel, pouvait y engranger.

De la photo parue dans les medias il est difficile de voir si elle avait attaché sa ceinture de sécurité dans l'avion ou pas. De toute façon elle en aura besoin.

Son trajet professionnel,  avant sa désignation surprise, est sympathique . Rien ne suggère cependant un intérèt pour les dossiers OTAN ou de l'Union Européenne ou la voix de la Belgique est devenue inaudible. Elle aura difficile à se faire entendre ou à démeler les contradictions liées au modèle belge.

Georges Louis Bouchez l'a imposée et il faut souhaiter qu'elle réusisse. Après le pape, aussi au Congo, la ministre rentre, comme Sa Sainteté, avec un veni vidi sans vici.

THE BALLOON THAT ROARED

In Chinese cosmology the heavens form a circle and the earth a square. By shooting down the balloon the Americans showed the Chinese that they were master of none. At the end of the day they lost both their balloon (who cares?) and face (they care). More is going to come out from this Jules Verne new Chinese story. Until then people may think: What the f...?

Despite an overflow of warnings many still inhabit the former Davos illusion, wherein people talk, discuss, disagree in an atmosphere of respect and courtesy. Well, better wake up...

The era of predictable cause and effect is gone. We no longer inhabit a world wherein the post-World War II "offense within reason" prevails. Europeans talk forever about le grand déplacement. They had better wake up to le grand dérangement.

Restraint and rules disappear. The global world is like the movie La grande illusion, the twilight of some sort or other of predictable behavior. We have entered a geo-political nightmare with ever-changing groupings of parties that follow self-interest only, and who will revert to hybrid warfare and disruption whenever their end needs disturbance.

The Western world is mostly exposed to this spooky menace because its power grid is the most vulnerable and its institutions are being attacked from within, too often with the blind support of the intellectually deficient undercover.

The balloon is yet another projection of the ancient Chinese jade disk, just another way to reclaim the heaven. It is not that different from Putin's more earthy claims and will rally a flock that will rejoice in yet another Western humiliation. This balloon will make the Chinese rejoice. They love kites after all.

This should be a wake-up call for the West which should come to the realization that asymmetric models are the new normal and that friendships that are not rooted in a shared philosophy are dubious. Strategy is a work in progress ; it is back to the drawing table. The balloon is only the beginning and not to be taken lightly.

 

THE EU IN WINTER

The USA added a half million jobs yet again. The EU feels like a tired room, packed with patients who are not on speaking terms. The UK is so desperate that a majority would revise the BREXIT mistake and rejoin this sad continental club.

There is nothing that might recalibrate the European Sehnsucht in the short-term. The social and economic terms of the equation are negative. Ukraine will get worse and, paradoxically so, Putin's allies look like having more will power than Ukraine's timid flock. Only the US shows resolve but yet again they have to monitor two villains: Russia and China.

The unholy EU meetings could well be the gatherings of a provincial Rotary Club. The grand déplacement of the EU to Kiev can travel light since it doesn't carry  anything of definitive weight in its luggage. The change of scenery might help though, since to repetitive meetings in Brussels end up like the host country: in shambles.

Both the EU and NATO have their own enemy within, Hungary in the former, Turkey in the latter. Geopolitical reasons oblige both organizations to cope with dysfunction but this permanent sabotage from within cannot last forever. School rooms should be gun-free, a democratic congress of like-minded nations should not be exposed to some fifth column within its ranks. The choice will have to be made and the short pain might be preferable to the rot.

European countries start to act and look old. The air is filled by bad memories which no longer let the future breathe. The corridors of power feel stale. It is ironic that the EU institutions are located in Belgium which may be on the verge of making every bad choice that can be considered under the sun. Nothing lasts forever and Europeans might very well reconsider their zip code, and move on to a more reliable place. It is flattering to have been chosen to host Europe. One must also merit the trust rather than taking it for granted.