THE UKRAINIAN "QUADRATURE DU CERCLE''

Ukraine is a tragedy that is hard to come to terms with. Almost all the actors in this unfolding drama look lost in a soliloquy.

President Zelensky has a difficult role, insofar as he has to play host to too many who come and go for the photo opportunity of the day. His past TV experience helps him to a point, but the over-exposure might dent the needed gravitas.

Some leaders try to act as the power brokers they are no longer. The UK prime minister clowns his way into every corner to appear Churchillian, which he is not (despite the awful biography he wrote) .

The EU Commission strikes the right tone and mode, but with member states such as Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Greece, it will be an uphill battle to arrive at an agreement on further sanctions against Russia.

France is EU president until the end of June. Newly re-elected, Macron will certainly be tempted to bluff other member states, which is always dubious.

The Russian Federation appears diminished. It looks more and more as being unable to steer its quantitative advantage into a qualitative added value.

President Biden handles the situation better than anyone. He acts with deliberation and is constant in an outrage that few dare to emulate. Besides, only the Americans have been consistent in their support and in the limits thereof.  Hopefully the lunatic Republicans will refrain from yet  another folly, in which they specialize.

At some point a negociated settlement will have to be considered. Given Putin's sins, this will be difficult to arrive at. He will never go for a Dayton scenario or sit down with "underlings". He is intelligent enough to know the risks of a prolonged "special operation" which is becoming costly and unpopular home. Returning body bags look bad. The West will also be under pressure to deal with inflation, cost of energy and possible social unrest. 

There is no magic formula. The communication between Washington and Moscow is on ice and the EU counts for too little in Putin's eyes. A new conference on security and cooperation in Europe might offer an outcome.  At the end of the day, even the UN could receive a respite from oblivion because it can give cover to all parties with none risking to lose face.