EVERYBODY HAS ALWAYS UNDERRATED THE RUSSIANS. Winston Churchill.

Some thought that Putin would stop short of a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine (minus Donetsk and Luhansk) and let it continue as a vassal state on the Belarus model. He chose for total invasion instead.

He followed the Hitler model:  a lethal mix of rage, historical falsehoods and contemporary recriminations.  He plays on the Russian feeling of paranoia, going so far as recreating a Third Reich decor, with the difference that Albert Speer had still some Bauhaus taste.

The West will cry 'Wolf!', decree sanctions that will take measures that hurt and humiliate. The US will decree an ersatz of Continental Blockade. They were too outspoken however about what they would never do. Putin doesn't make such a mistake.

It is still premature to predict Ukraine's ultimate fate, which lies now in the hands of Putin and his thugs. More ominous are the alarm bells that can be heard in the Baltic States, also NATO members by the way. Putin's lament about the end of the Soviet Union is an ominous menace. 

It is easy to imagine the ensuing catastrophe if every country were to start now reclaiming yesterday's losses. China will be at the same time alerted by this Russian hooliganism but also an unforgiven observer, given its own claims on Taiwan and the ambiguities of the Shanghai communique.

In the West, comments about NATO's new relevance were waranted after Putin's earlier incursions in the Caucasus and Crimea.  His Black Sea ambition became all too clear. Any Western naval confrontation there would certainly be doomed because of the might of Russia's naval capabilities and its control over Sevastopol and Mariupol.

Europe has entered unchartered waters.  As much as sanctions will hurt Russia, the EU will be faced with a major energy meltdown and defensive military expenditures.

The West also suffers from an overall split, anemic leadership. The EU is hapless,  President Biden is right, but unconvincing.  Unlike his Russian counterpart he appears too civilised to come close to tantrums and psychological intimidation. Putin studied Pavlov, maybe.

In the short run, the situation is bleak. Meeting after meeting in Brussels and elsewhere will only underscore the frailty of yesterday's commitments (years of negociation to arrive at the Hesinki agreement, now dead on arrival). Social media play a vicious role through trolls that desinform, lie and can also play a fifth column role.  Donald Trump just called Putin a genius. With friends like these, the West may as well call it quits. 

Russia is reinventing the Brezhnev doctrine. The West had better revisit its former hubris while looking at broken windows, illusions and vows.  It cannot let this pass and let Ukraine fall victim to Putin's aberrations. Fyodor Dostoyevsky wrote Crime and Punishment, after all. Innocence and corruption don't go together.