Saturday, January 29, 2022

WHAT'S DONE IS DONE (Macbeth III,2,12)

Ukraine is a Freudian paradox. Seldom was there more talk about a country stuck in collective indifference. This spade is just a spade, a victim of historical mismanagement, unloved by all and claimed by one unsuitable suitor. The crisis led to the involvement of too many while generating the emotions of too few. 

Kiev suffers from being historically mortaged and from having been unable to shed the contamination of the Soviet years. There are many legitmate links with Russia but it is the Soviet embrace which sticks. The crocodile tears or the German hemets sent in solidarity with a beleagered country cannot hide the basic fact that the talks and drama sound hollow. Public opinion in the West is more "touched" by the goings on in Kabul than by the travesty on this far eastern border. 

The Biden Administration and most Europeans are more annoyed than really preocupied. In reality, President Putin holds all the cards, knowing he has the gas and is cognizant of the Europeans' lack of empathy. The Helsinki commitments are burried next to many other historical skeletons.  Putin's many transgressions rest in peace. The Crimea ranks already in the category of misdemeanors. It is doubtful that Russia would risk direct military unpleasant turbulence instead of leaving Ukraine commuting into a Rump failed state, on an improved Belarus model. 

Mr. Stoltenberg's NATO utterances are unconvincing. Probably President Biden's slip of the tongue was more indicative of the real thinking in Washington than of an age-related lapse. Probably the Americans are too happy to let the Normandy formula (Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany) run its course, hoping that the Europeans come up with a face-saving compromise wherein Ukraine might be lured into the well-known prefered former Soviet Filandisation anesthesia, an existence in between brackets.  Guilty "understandings" go a long stretch.

Policy without any emotion becomes unsustainable. Public opinion in the West doesn't care as long as the roads to the French Riviera remain open and energy abounds. So much for democracy and the rule of law. Putin should learn from China's mercy killing of Hong Kong. That is finesse. Nobody is perfect.




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