Belgie zendt zijn zonen uit

 Koning Filip in Denemarken : no comment.

 Jan Jambon in Dubai : geen biomass maar bodymass.

Wallonie blijft Wallonie ... overal.

 Plus ca change.....

MARK ELCHARDUS

De bijdrage van professor Elchardus in De Morgen (23 / 10/ 21) komt hard aan. Zijn commentaar o.m. over klimaat is pertinent, helaas. De Belgische klimaatopvolging opvolging  moet  bij "spoedgevallen" worden ingecheckt, zeker als men nog wil vermijden dat de patient de geest geeft ( le ridicule tue).

Of Belgie daarbij internationaal opnieuw aan de diepten anno Dutroux  raakt is toch een overdreven, onrechtvaardige stelling. Toegegeven, het imago van Belgie ligt sinds 1960 dikwijls verkeerd in het buitenland. Het land zit klem in een hybridisch korset waarover het zich trouwens nooit rechtstreeks heeft mogen uitspreken. Er is geen federale kieskring, zodat er geen sprake is van een geloofwaardige beheersformule waarin plaats is voor rekenschap erga omnes. De Gemeeenschap dwergen hebben een pass gekregen die hun te ruime bevoegdheden in de handen speelt, zonder sanctie. Andersom was Wallonie na de watersnood weggestemd.

Nu moeten de dwergen in zoveel regeringen een standpunt bepalen voor de klimaat top in Glasgow....Het is inderdaad een trieste vertoning ! Het verdriet van Belgie opgevoerd voor een volle zaal. Jacques Brel had het over la valse a mille temps, onze politici spelen dokter Frankenstein met een monster a plusieurs temps.

Toch is de beoordeling van Prof, Elchardus vandaag ergens onrechtvaardig . De diagnose is correct maar de patient verdient behandeling. De Vivaldi regering is geen droom team, verre van. Toch zijn er ministers die niet oninteressant zijn en is Alexander De Croo er in geslaagd nieuwe accenten te leggen. De verwachte zoveelste staatshervorming moet het onmogelijke proberen te bereiken, met name een sectoriele herfederalisering, terwijl de patient onder narcose is. Omdat zo een ingreep  politieke levens zal kosten zal de ingreep vragen om geraffineerd vakmanschap.

De Croo is er in geslaagd Belgie een beginnende internationale face lift te geven. Hij moet het nu properen thuis te herdoen. Dat wordt een heuse klus. Een andere klimaatflop kan alles weer op de helling zetten : CO2 > laag IQ.

ALEXANDER DE CROO EST-IL ZEN ?

Après un an les Belges découvrent leur Premer Ministre. Calme, poli, présent il s'est imposé devenant la personnalite la plus appréciee du pays ( à peine devancé par Sophie Wilmes dans le Sud).

Le P.M. avance intelligemment tant a l'interieur qu'à l'extérieur. En Belgique il a réussi avec subtilté à remettre les régions a leur place ainsi qu'à privilégier un discours macro politique. De récents évènements en Wallonie et en Flandre ont sérieusement jetté le doute sur le modèle politique existant et sur ses défenseurs, pris en flagrant délit de fuites morale et intellectuelle.

Du coté flamand, plusieurs intellectuels et artistes plaident aujourd'hui en faveur d'une reprise en main d'enjeux devenus mondiaux, et demandent que l'on mette fin au gaspillage de pouvoirs et d'excellences qui mérient d'etre relegues dans les cales sèches de l'histoire. Si le ridicule tuait, la Belgique deviendrait une hécatombe.

Alexander De Croo représente manifestement une nouvelle génération plus informee et cosmopolite. Ses reflexes politiques trouvent des lors leur légitimité dans une perception transfrontaliere et à travers le spectre d' une intelligence contemporaine. Contrairement a ses prédecesseurs il entend ne pas etre l'otage d'une systeme mafieux existant et d'une gouvernance en miettes, qui est largement responsable du désastre Wallon. 

Le P.M. semble vouloir  aérer et alléger le modèle belge si durement accusé par W.S. Sebald. Ce Liberal sait s'entendre avec le socialiste Thomas Dermine parce que l'un et l'autre veulent faire avancer les choses. Le rebond de Charleroi ne diffère pas du rebond belge. D'autres Ministres ( Finances, Intérieur, Santé, Justice, Affaires etrangères)  sont interessants.

Ecolo dénote. Les Verts sont devenus "programmés" et leurs adhérents ont souvent des comportements de  ¨nouveaux terroristes¨.

Le P.M. doit avancer à pas de loup. Il est des situations ou il vaut mieux faire ce qui se cache derriere les mots que de sortir le message de l'enveloppe. Comme il semble bien s'entendre avec Angela Merkel, il est à bonne école.

Il faut souhaiter qu'il puisse rester Zen. Le Kabuki dans lequel d'aucuns veulent l'entrainer est trop risqué.

"Turn a crisis into an opportunity' turn a dead end into a new path¨ (Maitre Zen).

ANGELA MERKEL

Born in the DDR (the former East Germany), educated under Bach's spell, chosen by Helmut Kohl, she quitely invaded the EU's foreign and financial policies to such an extent that the will of Berlin became law. Her unabated trust in the Franco-German co-leadership role in Europe was responsible for years of progress on all fronts. Lately the rise of maverick leaders in mostly Hungary and Poland put a dent in the EU machinery.

Without restarting an Ostpolitik she was still the only European leader who could talk business with Putin...in Russian. This granite chancellor led the opposition of most Europeans to Trump by the sheer force of her contempt. She never relied on theatrics to win over the opposition at home or abroad.  She just stared it down.

Lately she found in the French president an ally who, contrary to some of his predecessors, had no problem in letting Gemamy lead. 

If her party, without her leadership, lost the last elections, the galant victory of the opposition stays in sharp contast with the histrionics in London. Germany became a blueprint for democratic governance.

She took risks (refugees, Nordstream 2 gas pipe line with Russia ) but even those who had misgivings were proven wrong or uninformed. She resisted moves to translate Germany's weight in military might. Probably she remained still over- conscious of history to be tempted by former aberrations.

The new chancellor will probably be Olaf Scholtz, a Social Democrat, but the world will not notice a major change in policies. Angela Merkel's style is embedded in Germany's psyche for the years ahead. It is important that the center hold, while the UK choses noise over substance and France enters the troubled pre-presidential election waters. If pre-Merkel equals post-Merkel, the same cannot be said about France. Emmanuel Macron is a formidable president but a very isolated one. It remains to be seen if he can re-galvanize his supporters as before. Even in his own ranks a Ballo in Maschera scenario cannot be excluded.

The European pendulum veered eastwards under Merkel. The EU machinery caught a bad cold. If it doesn't act against the Visegrad "oilspill", Germany might as well force its hand. The dwarfs in Brussels had better act fast before Berlin obliges it to do so.

Since the historic embrace between de Gaulle and Adenhauer, the road has often  been a difficult one. Let's not forget that President Mitterand had a difficult time agreeing with Germany's reunification. Human frailties can derail better intentions, as Brexit made perfectly clear. Prime Minister David Caneron will be judged in history books.  Angela Merkel will be lauded. Her inheritance should never be allowed to fall into the hands of fools.  It is safe...for now!

STROMAE

 ....pertinent !

TAIWAN

The world is edgy, because of China's President Xi's statements regarding Taiwan.

The island has been a Japanese colony, Chinese province and now the seat of a rival government. Beijing considers it as an inseparable part of the People's Republic of China.

Chiang Kai-shek, defeated in the civil war on the mainland, moved functionaries, troops, gold reserves and arts treasures to Taiwan.  Regularly, the Chinese tested Taiwan's resolve, i.a. by bombarding Quemoy and Matsu, which are not covered by the mutual defense treaty between the US and Taiwan (1954). Ensuing Straits crises tested both the US commitment, Taiwan's nerves and China's intentions. Taiwan followed a rather pragmatic route, exploring economic links and direct contacts with the mainland. Lately a freeze set in, afterTaiwan became more democratic and less Kuomintang.

Since President Nixon, Washington recognized 'one China', of which Taiwan is a part. It was also made clear that the future of Taiwan would be settled peacefully.

Taiwan has become a democratic powerhouse since and a shadow model pluralism. Beijing resents this "South Korea bis" on its doorsteps.  Some conclude hastily that China's patience might run dry since they consider Taiwan theirs.

In the Hall of Union in the Forbidden City figure the two characters "Wu Wei" (abstain from action), sumarizing the Taoist political ideal: the heavenly mandate can only be maintained if there is an avoidance of disturbance.

The Tienanmen drama was more the result of a bruised Chinese ego, for all the world to see, than of real political determination. When a Chinese risks losing face, his or her actions can become unpredictable and vicious.

The Americans have until now been able to manage the "waves" in the Straits by sophisticated diplomacy and the 7th Fleet.  Lately, American presidents have however been more noticable for their faux pas than for their skills. Trump's histrionics during President Xi's stay in Mar-a-Lago left the Chinese side incredulous.

Probably the Chinese are going to test the mettle of the new US  administration. The Afghan debacle left them in shock. Hence the temptation to call Washington's bluff . However there is no immediate reason to fear the worst, as some do. China is a possessive power, not an acquiring one. It plays the waiting game, slowly creating a fait accompli in what  it considers to be its zone of legitimate, historic influence (South China Sea, Tibet).  It doesn't hesitate to return to Emperor Qianlong, if it fits its narrative. The Chinese are united in never forgetting the opium wars and the humiliations brought on by the Western powers. They consider Westerns to be over-nervous and superficial. Their way is more a sophisticated tactic "to smother". Beware of the pillow which is presented. It is not ment for rest but used for slow asphyxiation. The fortune cookie might behold a death sentence.

They will never give up on Taiwan but they will certainly sort their possible options with caution.

One does't give enough credit to the highly sophisticated ways the thinking goes in the Chinese power elite. It knows too well that it has to deal with imminent threats of climate change, economical bluff, an aging population, a cynical generation of game addicts and over-reach (Africa). 

Beijing will not jeopardize its still shaky success story by "adventurous", unwaranted moves.  Regarding Taiwan,  it probably has no better option than to wait and see (the Hong Kong way), as long as the US doesn't oblige it to intervene militarily, the least desirable option since it would risk losing both face and control of events in the region. China might be angry but it is not a fool.

So far, so good as long as a familiar cynical mindset continues to prevail in all corners. After all, a status quo is just another convertible for the usual modus operandi that occurs between partners who have no illusions about the other's long- term intentions.

LUDIVINE DEDONDER

La ministre de la defense Belge n'a pas de chance. A priori je garde de la sympathie pour elle. Elle gere un departement ou le miserabilisme regne. Elle porte un nom predestine, pour bande dessinee, et elle accumule les malchances sur terre, dans les airs et, maintenant sur mer.

La derniere  blague Belge autour de la fregate  Leopold  I est la goutte qui risque de faire deborder le vase. Cela est non attendu. La recente chasse a l'homme (la cavale Jurgen Conings) a fait la demonstration d'une armee qui ne vient pas a la cheville d'un camps scout.

Comble de malchance, l'armee a des porte paroles qui feraient l'affaire de RTL, chaine specialisee dans le troisieme age et les malheurs (Wallons). Il serait indique qu'une fois pour toutes l'armee s'exprime en anglais et qu'elle fasse l'economie du ridicule (cela vaut d'ailleurs erga omnes), tant en Flamand qu'en  Francais.

Dans ce pays ou les sous-prefectures abondent et ou les portefeuilles ministeriels deviennent des parts d'heritage de pere en fils, la creativite n'est plus a prendre,  elle est a ramasser.

Il est a parier que les genies de Namur, capitaleWallonne, vont reconstuire le corridor  miserabiliste de la Vesdre comme avant, question d'abdiquer l'imagination et de ne pas devier de la corruption structurelle, responsable de malheurs repetes et jamais amendes.

Il y a au sein du gouvernement federal des personnalites interessantes. L'axe autour du Premier Ministre depasse les clivages belgo-belges. On attend Dermine au retour. Reste l'infortunee Madame Dedonder qui, rentree du Sahel, se retrouve les pieds dans l'eau. Au point ou on en est, autant la garder sous surveillance,...comme Boudu sauve des eaux (Michel Simon).