THE PACE OF DIPLOMACY IS NOT A RACE

Major powers usually wait. They can afford this luxury, since others are too happy to linger in their zone of influence, benefiting from the "umbrealla" and receiving the dividend. The United States was for a long time the model of a confident, benevolent partner. Under Nixon the wall started to crack. While Dr. Kissinger elaborated his balance of power model, he contradicted his very own analysis by freaky interventions and non-truths in, i.a., Chile and South East Asia. Nevertheless America remained the undisputed superpower which could afford to act without prior approval. Slowly this unilateral mind construction eroded, until it broke down under the weight of hubris and faulty management.

Coming after Trump's mad reign, President Biden is under pressure to halt America's downfall. He runs almost, while China and Russia watch. Hence Washington gives the impression of pursuing a disjointed, often unconvincing policy. The "Five eyes intelligence" sharing (US, Australia, UK, New Zealand, Canada), the QUAD ( US, Australia, India, Japan) and the AUKUS submarine deal (US, Australia, UK) betray haste, unfit for a major power.

While one can understand the goal, one is entitled to question the method or lack of coherence.  The ominous silence from Moscow and Bejing is commensurate with their displeasure. The EU feels ignored, France is sulking and NATO deals with a "senior moment".  All these accumulative "piques" and "snubs" are not irrelevant. They can be very vicious indeed. Europeans might be tempted by a repeat of the Helsinki farce, which would definitively further marginalize them. The Americans should beware of hurting too many egos by trumping special relationship(s) with anyone but the EU. The Transatlantic Tech Alliance is already a victim of the current bad mood between former Atlantic partners.

America became a moral pariah under Trump. Now the EU must support Biden, and correct him when necessary, so that "sweet sorrows" can be healed. For sure both the EU and the US have lost their superior appeal. China inspires envy, Russia fear, the EU boredom. Biden can still restore the transatlantic folie a deux but should beware of a menage a trois which will only complicate matters further.

It becomes clearer by the day that China is becoming the originator of strategic impulse worldwide and that it is apt at projecting its model as formidable. Western democracies fight the demons of immigration, climate change and an unaffordable welfare Utopia. True, while many are in awe of China's rise, few are tempted to live over there for pleasure. Bejing will never give up on Taiwan or the South China Sea. The cat and mouse game will continue as long as the "son of heaven" enjoys the waiting. 

The United States and the EU are still closer than their rivals are with their feudal underlings.  President Biden certainly wants to restore the relationship with the EU. After all, other major clashes have occured wherein the Europeans yet again split ranks (over Iraq, during the Bush/Blair partnership). The new secretary of State is the ideal personality to heal brised European egos. 

It is appropriate to counter China indeed, but the choice of the means to do so remains unclear and should be discussed amongst allies first. Australia is a major player and should indeed have a major role, but not at the cost of  traditional partners. The UK should likewise not receive a premium on the back of the EU.

Dr. Kissinger's analysis was perfect, but so was Metternich's in his time. Since then the world turned topsy-turvy. History is cruel, like aging.  Contrary to believe it  doesn't repeat itself. We are in need of a new scenario .