AFGHANISTAN...DIFFIDENT EXPECTATIONS ..

It is too early to arrive at an assessment of the causes that led to the collapse of the ante Taliban. We are even clueless regarding the post take-over yet. One thing is clear, the new rulers learned to "spin" if not to govern (yet) but the sheep skin shoudn't fool anyone.

While most comments deride America, President Biden is right to stick to his guns. This war became totally absurd given that it no longer received the support of the majority of people it pretended to protect. The Kabul clique, installed by countless American administrations, became an affront to sober, informed governance. Some well meaning NGOs and a handful of "intellectuals" tried to boost the little social progress made, but in the end the Sharia law remained in the DNA, stronger than the billboards avertising Western consumer goods reserved for the few.

The new cycle in Kabul must run its course. The continuity of war would have further delayed and, worse, derailed any long-term chance of improvement! By staying, America would have smeared its already tarnished image even further. No later than last year Trump was ready to host the Talibans in Camp David and was negociating with them in the luxury of Doha. 

Criticism of the US is warranted, regarding the intelligence and the various contingencies that were considered and readied on stand-by. The West in general first must now support the Afghans who were employed as fixers, interpreters, etc.  with a safe exit and possible legal status. The Talibans cannot be trusted on their word or generous intentions.

It is impossible to predict what the return of the Talibans will mean for the Afghans and for the region.  A lot is at stake: human rights, geopolitics, drug trade, terrorism. Everybody saw it coming but nobody expected an investment of 20 years occupation (?) to crash at such a speed, from within. 

People who overstay their time end up boring their host. The NATO forces ended up looking like clunky props in the wrong play. They had a lot of hard- and software but no history books. All American presidents since George W. Bush got trapped in the deceiving Afghan looking-glass. It befell President Biden to have the guts to put an end to this travesty which brought honor to none and misery to many. The take-over is not finished and one better readies for unpleasant "man" made (after all they are Talibans) turbulence and mayhem. Old timers like Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah might be willing to give the Talibans cover.

The Talibans must come clear on many issues: women and minorities, rule of law, international relations. It is naive to expect any qualitative movement in the areas of religion, governance, education, or nation rebuilding.

The West will then have to decide how to proceed. It must find a way to help the few who supported pluralism and carefully engage with the many who could never be engaged in the democratic process. There remains Al Qaeda. The Talbans will encounter pockets of resistance (Jalalabad) and despair that might interfere with the projection of a "soft landing" as performed by the new rulers in Kabul.

The Talibans should not condescend to the thousands who want to leave. The images coming out of the Kabul airport hell are an indication of the worst intentions of the "new Kabul" and of the ineffectiveness of the West, which should be better at proving that its commitment holds consequences. China and Taiwan are certainly watching how all this unfolds.