A G7 UNLIKE ANY OTHER.

Biarritz can be a little spooky, with Napoleon III's ghost playing phantom of the Second Empire opera. Count on President Macron to light it up.

The G7 meeting was a Blitz wherein French panache took over from the American president's usual rants, which start to test everybody's endurance. Trump's pack of lies and mistakes did not find an audience there.  Leaders were too happy to let France take the lead. The two scrooges--the US and Brazil-- didn't find any fans. America's empty chair during the enlarged climate change meeting was another indication of political impotence. That the French got the Iranian foreign minister to stop by for a bilateral "happy hour" was a diplomatic coup, obliging the Trump entourage to hide for cover.

Nevertheless the next G7 in 2020 will take place in the United States and promises to be of a different nature, a recipe of sound and fury. Trump, in appropriate Mobutu fashion, will open his hotel (with a price tag) and Putin will almost certainly figure on the guest list. Since the Russians will intervene in the US presidential elections, it is only normal that the Kremlin landlord will make sure that everything goes to his plan.

More seriously the Biarritz meeting made clear that the Trump brand doesn't sell anymore. The Americans finally start to wake up to the nightmare they endure non-stop.  The world is no longer amused and intrigued by this accidental aberration. This dysfunctional administration is stuck in the many wars and tweets which are supposed to be the little red vade mecum opus of the Trumpian thought. What follows is a matinee farce. Meanwhile serious world leaders are getting used to disguising their lack of interest in America's wanderings under the cover of flattery. The closer the US elections become, the crazier the White House will act. The most bizarre initiatives and moves will befall the spectators, like algorithms from Marvel.

Europe now has a major opportunity under a new Commission and with a creative policy-making machine, freed from Washington's shackles. It would nevertheless be self-defeating to go on a war path with Washington--this, too, will pass. Meanwhile interests will diverge. The EU might push even harder in situations wherein multilateral sophistication can be more in demand than unilateral whims: Korea, Kashmir, Iran, Ukraine, trade, WTO, climate, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Helsinki Final Act, human rights. Europe does not intend to be the final power broker.  Its hard-power is too negligible almost, but its soft-power (avec l'accent francais) can open doors and minds. Besides, there will be no deluge after Trump, just a long convalescence.

 

TRUMP : I AM THE CHOSEN ONE

The first symptoms of the president's bizarre mental shock waves don't date from yesterday. In his Trump Tower days, he showed already his unbalanced self.  Now the "non-stop talk show" in the White House feels totally off the rails. To insult Denmark, to disparage American Jews, to bring the G8 back to life, and to take the NRA for a pas de deux in one single day might figure in the Guinness Book of Broken Dreams.

Not long ago other mistakes (grammar, data) added salt to the main course of thousand and one lies. Fatigue and blase attitudes became a sort of Maginot Line which protected Americans from total depression. Now this line of defense, together with Trump's wall, have disappeared in some Remembrance of Truth Lost.

Soon America might arrive at a Richard III finale without a kingdom and without a horse. The situation is dire indeed. The allies sulk, the rivals cannot believe their luck in having this fool for "partner", the economy might just tank and the promised miracle infrastructure is just another promise thrown under the bus.  The Democrats vie for being "first in the class" while they should go to Gladiator class and learn how to get the best of the Beast.

The meeting between Presidents Macron and Putin in a setting made for To Catch a Thief  looked enchanted...what a contrast in being able to remain polite in disagreement and civil in choice of words and style. Trump will end up having only Boris Johnson as buddy. They seem made for each other, and for a remake of Dumb and Dumber.

LES RAVAGES AMERICAINS

Les immeubles peuvent s'effondrer . Les pays aussi. Ensuite il arrive que les uns et les autres se reconstruisent. Entre-temps le trou noir qu'ils ont cree se remplit de dechets et de rebut.

L'Amerique aujourd'hui vit un cauchemar sorti d'un roman qui aurait pu etre inspire par un geant illisible comme Melville. Autour d'une creature pathologique les murs s'affaissent, un a un, comme des falaises . Le decisions suspectent  en amont creent des crises previsibles en aval. Les premieres sont souvent le fruit de l'intemperance ou de l'improvisation. Les dernieres sont difficiles a gerer. En tout cas, les oscillations deviennent des secousses.

On assiste en direct aux convulsions de feu le reve americain, a son agonie. Le mepris a remplace le chagrin, les recents fiascos detronent les succes passes et les fautes couvrent desormais le chemin des avancees.

Laisse entre les mains d'une personnalite de plus en plus infrequentable  -avec son entourage opportuniste- le pays n'est plus a prendre, il est a ramasser. En realite les Etats-Unis sont devenus le fief d'entrepreneurs des pompes funebres. Dans presque tous les domaines, les progres d'hier sont demanteles, qu'il s'agisse du climat, de l'environnement,de l' energie, de la societe pluraliste, de l' immigration eclairee, de la justice, ou de l'habitat. Le Sud redevient presque une copie conforme de l'Afrique du Sud du temps de l'Apartheid. Les religions  apocalyptiques se multiplient. Deja le nombre d'armes a depasse celui des habitants.  Au Texas on exhibe son fusil comme un diplome qui ouvre les portes. La verite est remplacee par l'alternative, tandis que les nouvelles trafiquees occupent les media (avec le soutien actif de la Russie). L'ancienne premiere puissance a range ses principes dans le vestiaire de l'histoire. Les oubliettes affichent "complet".

Cette mauvaise saison en enfer risque de durer si Trump emporte les prochaines presidentielles. Cela est possible puisqu'il suffit d'avoir le soutien du college electoral, a defaut de majorite. Bel exemple de democratie! Il est vrai que les Democrates ne brillent ni par leurs idees, ni par leurs candidats. Les plus credibles d'un changement intelligent peuvent difficilement rassembler la masse critique qui leur est necessaire.

Les defis sont nombreux. A l'exterieur le sabordage de l'accord avec l'Iran et du TPP (Trans Pafic Patnership) laissent les USA isoles. Il est a prevoir que le nouveau P.M. Britannique quittera a son tour l'accord avec l'Iran pour recevoir en retour un accord commercial bilateral avec Trump (pour qui tout est sujet a trasaction).  Deja on voit combien l'evolution a Hong Kong est banalisee par l'administration americaine, comme si les accords souscrits par la Chine n'etaient en realite qu' intentions et voeux pieux. Sous Trump Washington  n'a pas hesite une seule fois a decevoir ses allies, a fermer les yeux devant les ecarts de ses presumes "favoris" et a se delester de toute ambition morale. Entre les voltes-face et entrechats ce sont les sautes d'humeur de Trump qui determinent desormais l'avenir des Etats Unis.

Ce president presente, altere, ment, trompe, comme il respire. Entre accusations gratuites, arrangements envisages et perfidies a repetition, le Moyen Orient attend, l'economie se fragilise et les alliances declinent. L'Amerique promise lors de l'investiture du president a une grande revision attend toujours l'infrastructure promise, la reconciliation annoncee et la Renaissance promise. Or on vit dans un stand de tir et dans une polarisation qui s'aggrave de jour en jour.

L'Amerique majoritaire se rend compte qu'elle aura difficile a gagner la "coupe" qu'elle merite. Les des sont fausses. La Californie qui est a elle seule, une des grandes puissances mondiales, a deux senateurs comme les Dakotas (ou il n'y a pas un chat) qui comptent egalement chacun deux elus au Senat. La strategie republicaine se concentre sur quelques etats miteux qui font la difference, a defaut de la majorite. A cela s'ajoute un element capital : la guerre larvee entre villes et campagne, entre laicite et religion. Or Trump beneficie de l'appui des "Evangelicals" pour avoir choisi les rives du Jourdain avec Netanyahu comme passeur ou comme acolyte. Pendant ce temps les intellectuels qui n'y croient plus boudent et se jettent en masse sur leur Xanax pour se calmer.

Garcia Lorca vivant aurait sans doute ecrit un poeme "La mort de la verite". Une cabale de souffleurs, type Stephen Miller et Kellyanne Conway, prescrivent un scenario que les adeptes de la mort de la nature, du beau et de l'emotion mettent en pratique. Fox news s'applique a euthanasier le vrai, tandis que Trump propage ses tweets comme un gaz asphixiant.  Ses tweets apres les dernieres fusillades a Dayton et El Paso meritent la palme d'or de l'ignoble.

Michel Houellebecq recommanderait un comprime de Serotonine pour "passer le temps mechant". Aux Etats-Unis, la vie normale n'est plus a la portee de tout le monde.

HONG KONG 2019

The current events in Hong Kong have a lot in common with the mood which preceded the Tienanmen protests (15 April/4 June, 1989). But, there is one major difference insofar as the Chinese leadership is not split now like it was then, between Premier Li Peng and Zhao Ziyang, general secretary of the Party. President Xi Jinping has no rivals in personalities or ideas.

It is doubtful that today's young protesters in Hong Kong are all that familiar with the many caveats of Hong Kong's handover to China. On June 30 1997, Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region, governed by the Basic Law. The "One country, two systems" is supposed to remain unchallenged until 1 July, 2047. The Joint Declaration between Beijing and London left the Chinese with the keys but also guaranteed -in principle- Beijing's "better behavior". In fact the territory came to resemble a treaty port of an earlier era. This illusion did not last long. While China is smart enough not to jeopardize Hong Kong's immense added financial and economic values, it is committed not to give the Noble House's pluralistic laissez faire a free pass.

Today's unrest comes at a most difficult moment. The protesters' concerns might end up being ignored because Beijing's weight in world affairs has become too resolute to be challenged. The American administration will prefer not to add to the bilateral problems it has with China. Trump who neither smokes nor drinks alcohol is in equal terms a human rights abstainer. Maduro & Co. only wait for the moment China crushes the kids in Hong Kong, while America looks elsewhere.

One must hope that the sober minds will prevail in Hong Kong. After all, the political values benefit from the economic multiplicative. One must avoid at all cost arriving at "One country, two pressures"--one from the Middle Kingdom, the other from the business community in Hong Kong which does not intend to compromise a modus vivendi which is not ideal but manageable. Hong Kong will never be Monaco and is, in fact,  better, more interesting than the Mediterranean dorm for the old, the rich and the dubious. Too some extent the Pearl River Delta has become more Hong Kong than not.  Whatever the Chinese want Shanghai to be, it will never become the Twin City in the middle. 

Hong Kong is the sum of luck, money and location. The Chinese are masters of that game. The young are right to stick to the spirit of past arrangements but since nobody will come to the rescue, it is wise to choose caution over encouragement. Mrs. Thatcher knew what was winnable or not. Conversely she acted wisely. If we are with the women and men in the streets who fight for the continuity of their rights, we must ask them to reclaim their future rather than the airport.

A third party is watching : Taiwan.

AMERICA'S "METAL/MENTAL FATIGUE"

The gun violence in the United States is relentless. The moral abdication is structural. Republicans are on the payroll of the National Rifle Association. Some Democrats are too. When they try to come up with a clear condemnation, they mostly triangulate. The Second Amendment curse (like the electoral college) is exchanging the moral currency for Bitcoin profit.

Trump reluctantly read the words of others from a teleprompter and his "intervention" might as well have been written by Stephen Miller--all about anything, but guns! Some Democrats and commentators rose to the occasion but few were able to rise to the emotion. 

For almost three years now, racism and radical conservatism roam free. After a brief lull, from the Bush years to Obama, a foul headwind is again covering the land. The Trump rallies are a frightening spectacle, a Mad Max-type of ritual wherein adepts of a weird cult can spew freely their beans and ketchup bile under the baton of the president. 

In their latest debate, most Democrats looked like exhausted baby-boomers. Uninspired, they found nothing better to say than to go after Obama, accused by stealth of having been too soft, too aloof, while he has an approval rate among Democrats of 90%. The younger set--O'Rourke, Buttigieg--showed skill in holding on to the high ground. In this turmoil, Biden looked dignified, but almost too polite, for the occasion.

Someone said that the current depression in America is produced by the fact that Trump is a "phenomenon" without antecedent, and with no foreseeable successor. He has been linked to mad Roman emperors and to Europe-made arch-villains. In fact he is totally home-grown, like corn flakes on steroids. America was always better at making fads rather than styles. This current craze will end but the negative over- achievements will be hard to roll back. Not that they are sophisticated, on the contrary. They are fed by short-term gain: money, prejudice, ersatz salvation! This president spoke in his inaugural of the American disaster, and he intends to remain the preacher and the owner of the perverse instincts unleashed.

Fatal mistakes or rage could plunge this failing superpower abroad in a miserable landscape on life-support. The moral, intelligent majority stays home and prefers to watch Tarantino on Netflix, rather than to be confronted by it, live. Broadway used to belong to a sophisticated mindset. It is now overtaken by a Moulin Rouge collage without any merit. The current overproduction of great fiction results from an intellectual greenhouse effect. Many Americans prefer now to read in some form of seclusion, home or on a tablet, because, if unprotected by fiction, they might experience that in a fortnight the Soweto police dogs took over their neighborhood.