THE CHAOS DIVIDEND

The past foreign policy of the United States can be resumed in a pursuit for order. American leadership was uneven, imposed  or ambivalent, moralistic or cynical, but never questioned--that is--until now. The Westphalian system has fallen out of grace. The obsession regarding the menace of an entente between Moscow and Beijing, which had to be avoided at any price, looks almost parochial in the mindset of the current administration. The traditional modern diplomatic vernacular, starting with Stanley Hoffmann and defined by Dr. Henry Kissinger, is no longer. 

It is certainly not necessary to cling to the past, given that under the veneer of often brilliant abstractions, colossal blunders were made. On the other hand the world doesn't deserve to be hit by the brutality of the Trump meteorite. Not only is the "Never the USA against 2" buried under the Putin/ Xi Jinping bromance, but the intermediaries--alliances and multilateral organizations--which were created to monitor or avoid major dislocations are being mothballed. Hence, tensions flare up with no alarm bells around which might otherwise have controled the spread of the damage. Disruption becomes the new normal.

Unfortunately, the consequences of the American "chaos theory" are creating new imbalances which only multiply populism and favor a visceral, anti-intellectual behavior. The Trump presidency is the ultimate party-crasher, disdaining experience and history. It is undermining America's role in the world because it has neither script nor story and ends up aggravating the negatives. One can only be unorthodox as long as one has the savoir-faire to do so.

It is becoming clear that the Americans start to wake up to their sudden isolation in the world. Trump is blamed and is also suspected of creating artificial distractions just to deflect from his pathological behavior. He might overplay his bluff but we are not there yet. He has proven to be a ruthless carpet-bomber.

The Democrats often appear too timid, messy and pusillanimous.  Pete Buttigieg (too controlled?) is probably the smartest candidate, with Kamala Harris (too pugnacious?) . Both look more like comets who enlighten the sky, compared to the meteorite who risks crashing down over their head.

Trump will stop at nothing. He will attempt to steal the elections again through gerrymandering, voter suppression and the census machine. There are no Republicans left. The party is his. If needed, he will likewise storm the international scene to create the surprise du chef .  If the cook is Trump, skip dinner !