POBRE MEXICO, TAN LEJOS DE DIOS Y TAN CERCA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS (PORFIRIO DIAZ)

The victory of Manuel Andres Lopez Obrador (AMLO) was expected. His win came easy because the other candidates were unconvincing and repetitive. Not that AMLO is a great personality. He is not. He is even dubious, but Mexico overdosed on corruption, drugs  and violence and he was able to play the part of the White Knight.

The country is more complex than the usual Sicario representation. It is a cultural wonder. Its middle class is growing. The economy is becoming a major player in Nafta's northern hemisphere. Unfortunately, structural inequalities remain unattended and the drug cartels are able to control a narco shadow economy which bribes and controls part of the population.

The new president has a murky record. He has also shown he can be a pragmatist. After all, when mayor of Mexico City he made a deal with Carlos Slim regarding the restoration and preservation of the historical center.  Overall, the USA will have a touchy neighbor at their southern border.

Mexico had extraordinary presidents in the past (Gortari, Zedillo) who came from the PRI. Only Fox (PAN) was able to put an end to this political one-party rule. Unfortunately he was an unconvincing president.  Obrador's leftist credentials lack intellectual stamina (Cardenas) or ruthless brio (Gortari). His program is high on old populism and low on new ideas. The majority of Mexicans who felt, rightly so, stuck in stagnation in the midst of a economical/social vortex benefiting others, will certainly feel vindicated.  It is doubtful that Obrador will roll back the uneven progress achieved for the sake of reforms which rest on old ideological frustrations. He might better cleanse the judicial and police apparatus, local government, education and health services. However this new president has shown in the past that he is more stubborn than political/intellectual savvy.

In this Western Hemisphere Mexico made the historical choice to be a North American country first, a Latin American country second. It has a hard time asserting itself with formidable contenders like Argentina and Brazil. The pendulum in the Southern Hemisphere is also unpredictable. Colombia turned right, Bolivia left. Mexico lost its former influence in Venezuela and Cuba. When Fidel Castro visited Mexico City, the street went for the Cuban, embarrassing President Fox.  Obrador's populist message is paradoxically not all that different from Trump's. Both are vindictive, demagogic personalities. The overall  loathing of everything the American president stands for might still create a danger zone for the US at its southern border.

AMLO will certainly follow a "Make Mexico Great Again" path which will have socio/cultural consequences. There might be a return to more Mexican-rooted accents in most forms of creativity and antecedent.  Frida Kahlo will have a comeback. The Jumex-type of global art dialogue is not in line with a more narrow inward- looking pattern. The narrative will dwell more on differentials than on parallels. Mexico will revisit again the lost magic of J.M. Le Clezio (The Mexican Dream) rather than attempting to be a protagonist in the world civilizations of Carlos Fuentes (Destiny and Desire).

The United States will be kept at arms length whenever possible. Europe will receive the usual cultural embrace, albeit with sub-titles. The winner, here as in other parts of Latin America and the Pacific, will be China again. The Chinese are the suitors who bring gifts without asking much in return. They have already a network of agreements with almost all countries in Latin America and they will be too happy to oblige AMLO. The Monroe Doctrine is long since forgotten but the Chinese will undoubtedly relish rubbing another geopolitical win in America's face.