Tuesday, June 12, 2018

SINGAPORE : TWEEDLEDUM MEETS TWEEDLEDEE

The North Korea situation is far too serious to be made fun of. Furthermore, one is entitled to wish for a responsible approach to this complex issue. Trump, as usual, bluffed his way in and met Kim Jong-Un in Singapore on June 12, 2018. The move was bold but the outcome is murky. The two leaders spoke with only two interpreters present. Given the American president's usual sloppy preparation and insufferable arrogance, this formula is dangerous. Nobody knows what was said and Trump's recollection is as unreliable as a weather forecast in the hurricane season.

The immediate concrete results are close to nothing. Denuclearization is the agreed goal but verification, method, scope (i.a. germ weapons, ending H-bomb fuel production, destruction of chemical weapons or shared agreement on what the terms of reference mean, will require fastidious, difficult negotiations, that are not Trump's cup of tea. His rejection of the over-sophisticated Iran nuclear deal is the result of two factors: his hate for all things Obama and the length of an agreement which he is too lazy to comprehend.

In the short term the North Korean leader got all he wanted. His regime was "normalized", his persona was "humanized" and he got a pass on human rights, democracy and unpleasant collateral issues. He is supposed to order the destruction of a testing site of major missiles. The joint military exercises between North Korea and the US  ("war games" in Trump's words) are halted, a move which took South Korea off guard. Trump did not hide his goal to withdraw all American troops from South Korea...like that!

Japan and China must have looked on in disbelief. I wonder what the American secretary of defense must think. In Washington the Republicans who are no longer the defenders of the "faith" will support their Tweedle-dumb leader and the Democrats will be what they are best, just Democrats. The Europeans and Canada are too busy licking their wounds after the catastrophic (and hilarious) G7.

The Singapore formula is an indication of the downfall of diplomacy, just like the G7 was another step in the takeover of order by chaos. Trump's structural impulsive preference for strong leaders ahead of sophisticated measured statecraft is aided by their eagerness to flatter him, abide, forgive as long as this dupe serves their interests. Yet again the ugly American's body language which tramps on all Asian manners received a pass for the sake of the sabotage of Western interests by this Manchurian president.

It remains that it is not inappropriate to engage. It is just too dangerous to trust a loose canon with the gunpowder. The Korean Tweedledee might be the mirror image of the American Tweedledum, but he is the smarter half.

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