L'accumulation de l'insupportable s'amplifie. Il est probable que Trump voudra multiplier et accelerer les tensions avec les allies et les revisions avec d' autres. La repetition du scenario G7 n'est pas a exclure. Il aime cette formule ou son antipathie envers le multilateral est suivie d' une embrassade (genante) d'une partie a-typique (Coree du Nord). Sans doute suivra-t-il la meme manoeuvre creant un malaise lors du sommet de l'OTAN a Bruxelles, et reservant ensuite tout son arsenal de seduction (?) pour Poutine.
L'Occident philosophique a trouve en Trump l'ennemi du dedans. La democratie en Amerique est sur la defensive. Maintenant que le president devra designer un nouveau juge a la cour supreme il est probable que les acquis anterieurs seront soumis a une revision sans merci. La droite profonde a trouve en la personne de Trump son commandeur qui lui regagnera le terrain occupe par les Globalistes et les liberaux.
Les Etats Unis de Jefferson a Franklin Roosevelt ont vecu. Certes le retour aux lumieres n'est pas a exclure mais tout est mis en place pour consolider la prise de pouvoir par un courant ou la religiosite, le populisme et l'anti intelligence prevalent. Le camps oppose est encore incapable de troquer un degout souvent hysterique contre une strategie plus sophistiquee. En attendant le pays est frappe d'une polarisation qui risque de devenir structurelle.
Le modele Trump a des imitateurs partout. Les pays du Vysegrad, l'Italie et l'Autriche suivent caricaturalement un modele(?) analogue. Les "duumvirs" Russe et Chinois sont heureux d'accueillir un troisieme larron. Il reste d'ailleurs curieux de voir l'ascendance de Poutine sur le president americain, qui apparait toujours comme un suppleant. Plusieurs scenarios existent pour expliquer cette "fatale attaction" mais en realite le mystere reste entier. Partout dans le passe et l'entourage de Trump on reconnait la main russe. Poutine attend et Trump court.
Il est inquietant de voir la societe americaine en implosion. Il devient impossible de reunir les camps desormais irreconciliables autour de la meme table. Les villes, les quartiers se vident, se delestent, se recreent d'apres des marqueurs et des signaux agrees. On entre dans l'ere tribale ou l'on ne lit, ne regarde, n'observe, ne frequente que l'identique reconnaissable . Trump signale son objectif par l'intermediaire d'un arsenal de fetiches (costume, couleur de cravate, choix de mots, nourriture, body language) qui deviennent des points de ralliement. Autant Obama etait une personnalite privee, "economiquement" abordable, Trump est un temperament volcanique en eruption permanente. Il ne cherche pas la coherence et n'existe qu'en interrompant, mentant, accusant, registres dans lesquels il excelle.
Il est Jerry Lewis, "militarise".
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Until last week Trump was considered a racist imperialist, Pinkerton in Madama Butterfly, an ugly American amongst many. In the last few days we saw someone more nefarious, a man at war against truth and dignity. The sycophants around him became more threatening: Pence looks like Reinhard Heydrich, Stephen Miller like Joseph Goebels, Kellyanne Conway is this regime's Leni Riefenstahl. The rallies in Trump's heartland are also becoming more cultish.
The horror story of the children who were taken hostage, separated from their parents and often"parked" in cages is an indication of the depth of this Trump- made nightmare. The White House casting of the usual suspects is in the current circumstances a total disaster. Even the First Lady donned the wrong outfit for her journey into hell, which was otherwise more remarkable for what it hid than for what it showed.
The United States enters the age of ugliness. Nothing will stop Trump on his path to some form of insanity on all fronts. The mafia around him will only echo and amplify his destructive mantra. Some are tempted to comment on his "nihilism" but this choice of words is wrong because nihilism requires culture, information, history, which are all absent from this primitive cycle. American intellectuals, Republican and Democrat, have chosen for the opposition. They rightly refuse to be part of the manufactured deification of a crook but their retreat leaves a vacuum which is overtaken by the new Huns and Visigoths.
Trump is supposed to have caved in and put an end to the hostage-taking of children. There are so many loopholes and ambiguities that it is impossible to believe that he might ever listen to decency. His racist DNA is there to stay. Besides, he rules by instinct, not by any form of ethics. The America where the ecstatic and the elegiac compete is on hold, for how long? The haters of the US have found in Trump the ultimate legitimacy for their prejudice. Early on, the cavalier and unprofessional antics of this president bewildered, now they repel.
Immigration is a difficult issue everywhere. It creates challenges and forces choices that are seldom just, since a balance has to be found between different priorities.
The Trump/ Stephen Miller / Jeff Sessions policy regarding the immigrants at the southern border shows yet again the true face of this Republican administration and Congress, a total disregard for humanity. When minors get separated from their parents and end up in some federal holding/blind facility, the American dream lies in the gutter.
The revulsion transcends for once the political boundaries. The Trump years will be remembered as "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
Qui se souvient encore du Defi americain, du Fou d'Amerique, de toute une litterature au service du reve americain ? Le reve est devenu cauchemar. Trump devrait etre poursuivi pour haute trahison. Il est un menteur a repetition chez lui. Il impose son bluff brutal au monde. Ce serviteur de deux maitres, Poutine et l'argent, a reussi, en moins de deux ans, a rendre l'Amerique infrequentable pour ses allies, et vulgairement commune et cheap aux yeux des autocrates qui de Budapest a Pyongyang cherchent a hater la fin de l'ambition democratique de l'Occident.
Partout le president americain oppose une narration frauduleuse a la verite derangeante pour lui. L'accumulation du faux finit par marginaliser le vrai. Il a commence par jeter le doute sur la legitimite du president sortant et depuis n'a cesse de placer des mines sous l'accord nucleaire avec l'Iran, le dossier climatique, le TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership), le commerce, l'architecture du monde, les alliances, pourtant indispensables, ou meme les droits de l'homme -y compris ceux de l'enfant- . Cet apprenti sorcier aime peu les projections a moyen ou long terme. Il ne suggere aucune suite dans les idees, au demeurant rares chez une personnalite indifferente a l'histoire ou a une reflexion strategique. C'est ainsi que Trump est apparu infrequentable lors du G7 ou dangereux a Singapour. Il prefere l'antagoniste flatteur a l'allie critique.
Aujourd'hui l'Occident classique n'est plus. Les emules de Trump ont reussi a fragiliser l'Europe. Il n'aime ni l'OTAN ni quelque formule solidaire que ce soit, autre qu'une transaction. Il gere sa presidence comme il officiait anterieurement cote casinos et faillites a repetition. Il a l'illusion d'exceller dans une negociation a deux, alors meme que son bilan est nul.
En tournant le dos a la diplomatie classique il normalise quasi immediatement des situations adverses ou des interlocuteurs qui le considerent comme un "collaborateur" qui sert leurs propres avancees . Il perd ainsi la confiance de ceux qui voyaient en l'Amerique un recours et un garde-fou. Les allies les plus immediats des Etats-Unis voient mal pourquoi ils devraient s'aligner sur un modele "Trump" qui apparait a leurs yeux comme un mode de gestion denoue de morale, d'intelligence et de vision.
Malheureusement le choc Trump cree des perturbations qui risquent de devenir structurelles. Aux Etats Unis les guaranties et libertes constitutionnelles sont assiegees. Une force d'occupation est en place qui entend pousser un agenda reactionnaire dans les domains aussi divers que la science, l'education, l'immigration, l'environnement etc. Il s'agit en realite d'un Kulturkampf qui oppose l'Amerique cotiere a l'Amerique du milieu, la religion a la laicite, l'historicite eclairee au ressentiment, l'engineering de la societe a sa partition.
En Europe le ver est malheureusement dans le fruit. La Hongrie, la Pologne et l'Italie pactisent avec le "malin". Brexit est un evenement existentiel tant pour le partant que pour ceux qui restent. Le coup d'etat permanent du camp Trump s'amplifie tandis que parallelement le desenchantement Europeen se confirme. La montee du populisme doit etre prise au serieux.
En realite le camps dit liberal a du mal a trouver une riposte calibree. Les anciennes certitudes ont pris un coup de vieux. Leurs interpretes ont du mal a opposer la lumiere a la nuit des autocrates. Aux Etats Unis le parti democrate est en manque de message et de personnalites. Obama n'a pas de successeur et son message apparait aujourd'hui comme trop sophistique, voir meme elitiste. Cela est paradoxal eu egard a la prise de pouvoir par un clan ou les plutocrates sont maitres. L'ascenssion de Trump etait resistible (merci Brecht) mais les democrates etaient divises , souffrant de cecite alors que 50 % des Americains se sentaient (a tort ?) oublies. La mouvance anti Trump est soupconnee de vouloir abroger le second amendement et de favoriser culture, media et discours ultra liberal au detriment de l'Amerique profonde. Il en va de meme en Europe balayee par le mauvais vent de Mitteleuropa.
Les anciennes formules New Deal, Yalta ou Bretton Woods ont vecu. En l'absence de volonte politique il vaut mieux choisir la jachere et attendre les "beaux jours". Une fatigue commence a s'installer. Tot ou tard l'overdose Trump (et acolytes) va s'epuiser. Encore faut-il elaborer un contre-projet mobilisateur qui puisse amortir la chute dans le trou noir (economie, immigration, commerce...) . Les catastrophes sont egalitaires, frappant indifferemment les camps opposes. Encore faut-il prevoir leur point de chute et preparer une alternative. Or cela n'est pas le cas.
The North Korea situation is far too serious to be made fun of. Furthermore, one is entitled to wish for a responsible approach to this complex issue. Trump, as usual, bluffed his way in and met Kim Jong-Un in Singapore on June 12, 2018. The move was bold but the outcome is murky. The two leaders spoke with only two interpreters present. Given the American president's usual sloppy preparation and insufferable arrogance, this formula is dangerous. Nobody knows what was said and Trump's recollection is as unreliable as a weather forecast in the hurricane season.
The immediate concrete results are close to nothing. Denuclearization is the agreed goal but verification, method, scope (i.a. germ weapons, ending H-bomb fuel production, destruction of chemical weapons or shared agreement on what the terms of reference mean, will require fastidious, difficult negotiations, that are not Trump's cup of tea. His rejection of the over-sophisticated Iran nuclear deal is the result of two factors: his hate for all things Obama and the length of an agreement which he is too lazy to comprehend.
In the short term the North Korean leader got all he wanted. His regime was "normalized", his persona was "humanized" and he got a pass on human rights, democracy and unpleasant collateral issues. He is supposed to order the destruction of a testing site of major missiles. The joint military exercises between North Korea and the US ("war games" in Trump's words) are halted, a move which took South Korea off guard. Trump did not hide his goal to withdraw all American troops from South Korea...like that!
Japan and China must have looked on in disbelief. I wonder what the American secretary of defense must think. In Washington the Republicans who are no longer the defenders of the "faith" will support their Tweedle-dumb leader and the Democrats will be what they are best, just Democrats. The Europeans and Canada are too busy licking their wounds after the catastrophic (and hilarious) G7.
The Singapore formula is an indication of the downfall of diplomacy, just like the G7 was another step in the takeover of order by chaos. Trump's structural impulsive preference for strong leaders ahead of sophisticated measured statecraft is aided by their eagerness to flatter him, abide, forgive as long as this dupe serves their interests. Yet again the ugly American's body language which tramps on all Asian manners received a pass for the sake of the sabotage of Western interests by this Manchurian president.
It remains that it is not inappropriate to engage. It is just too dangerous to trust a loose canon with the gunpowder. The Korean Tweedledee might be the mirror image of the American Tweedledum, but he is the smarter half.
The G7 meeting in Canada was a sad affair. There was Trump (half-heartedly supported by an Italian Sancho Panza) and there were the others, who had to endure the American's fake trade tirades and his renewed kowtow to Russia. Anyway, Trump only dreams of a G3 (USA, Russia, China). He was otherwise too "high" on his Singapore meeting. He will have a totally different body language there than the one he inflicted on his partners in the G7. He only likes to show off his "car dealer" persona with like-minded autocrats, preferably in a tete a tete format, wherein he is supposed to be able to display the full range of his "art of the deal" bravura. This anti-intellectual president is basically an anti- structuralist. He is too lazy to deal with multilateral formats and engagements which require some attention to gentlemen's rules.
Trump was rude, arriving late, leaving early, and chose to attack yet again, on foreign soil, American presidents before him. His lack of all manners and style is only getting worse since his close handlers now are the hardcore faithful, who carry the banner of populism and anti-globalism. He will be all charm in Singapore, where he is prepared for a photo-op which is the only thing on his mind.
I wish Europeans would call his bluff but it is almost certain they will wait out the cyclone. They had better prepare for a staged Putin/Trump summit, which is in the making. Eastern Ukraine, Crimea, gross meddling in US elections have little say in Trump's world. Nobody knows what motivates him in his bromance with Putin, blackmail or envy ? The American avatar lacks any form of sophisticated statesmanship, does not read and cannot find time to build consensus in the US or abroad. He acts as a de facto Putin agent, pushing for the deconstruction of the Western world architecture and the watering down of the European political and defense posture.
America is suffering from a permanent negative overdose. His fake news machine never lets go and the media have become guilty because of their non-stop reporting of the madness of King Donald. Europeans are too polite in this new ice age of manners, trust and truth. There is worse to come since the Democrats act and look like a pack of disoriented geese on migration, and the Republicans stand firm on all that is wrong. I wish a blue wave were coming, I fear that the red grip on power will last for a while. Trump can continue to preach the autocratic gospel, unhindered, until the blind may see again.
Trump is waging wars on all fronts. In America, against the Constitution and the truth. Abroad against globalization and multi-lateralism. On both fronts he is advancing.
In the United States, the separation of powers is on life-support. The free press is under attack. A strategy of alternative facts and conspiracies is winning the battle over minds and reason. This White House is waging a real carpet bombing operation against whoever stands in its way. The GOP has been hijacked by the Trump Mafiosi who stoke the fires of the culture war which opposes one America against the other. The threshold of tribalism has been crossed. The consequences thereof will be structural. Whatever the rule of law, whatever the outcome of the investigations, this Reichstag is burning to ashes. The "normal heart" of America is too shell-shocked, and gasps for air rather than reacting. The non-majority of the country is becoming a majority tout court. The news has become a permanent confrontation with the gutter exhibitionism of a con-artist. Trump is like a permanent weatherman who drags the country in tales of cyclones and anti-cyclones.
Abroad, the "strong men" are in favor with this administration and the democracies become a nuisance (like the branches of the American government). Everything is transactional, not unlike Trump's marriages. Everything has to be a deal. The MAGA (Make America Great Again) is an accelerating run for a finish in an empty stadium. Allies are gone, agreements are broken, diplomacy is disregarded, alliances are on life-support. The trade war with Canada, Mexico and the EU is a slap in the face of America's friends (and of the WTO). The unavoidable coming structural trade war with Trump's "friend" Xi Jinping might have multiple unpleasant backlashes on many fronts, the South China Sea included. The new impulsive rush to North Korea is the more noteworthy since the North Koreans were received with undue honors, unlike the cold shoulder reserved for Chancellor Merkel, as if Pyongyang was just another Asian vacation hub. The Gulag is an unwelcome reference in this administration. By the way, John Bolton--North Korea's nemesis--was absent during this love fest.
The benevolent world order is dead. Candidate Trump was not taken seriously. The former clown of Manhattan was considered just a vulgar, egomaniacal, matinee entertainer. Rightly so, but he got elected (albeit by a trick) and he is impervious to change. Rather than feeling the weight and the importance of his responsibility, he rejects the rules that come with his tenure and chooses to continue applying his former "deal ersatz model" from his days as bankrupt casino boss. Everything, from his current suits, decoration, manners, travesties, etc., would be at home in a Scorsese New Jersey scenario. Giuliani, Cohen, the Russians, all fit right into this walk on the wild side.
Europe finds itself in some difficulty. The eastern part is on a different time-zone (democratic deficit, values) and Italy is on shaky grounds. It will be difficult to coalesce around a common position. Nevertheless, it should be possible to find a shared consensus regarding trade, climate, Iran deal, WTO and NATO. Still, the aberration felt by most is not shared by all. The fear is that Trump will not stop and that he will feel enabled to take his chaos a step further. He cannot resist surprises (which don't need previous knowledge or culture) and will continue to despise historical corroboration (which requires homework). More blunders are coming...
