Friday, March 30, 2018

THE KIM / XI EXAMPLE.

Kim Jong-Un and Xi Jinping met in Beijing. The Chinese gave him a four-star welcome with the pomp and the savoir faire that are hard to match anywhere. A summit between the two Koreas is also planned. Trump doesn't need to prepare...yet.  As he often likes to say, only he is indispensable. Until now the American side looks intellectually depleted, professionally clueless and antagonizing allies galore. The president went on his North Korea "high" without warning, consulting or knowing what he got himself into.  Japan was informed post facto, China was ignored, while Trump perhaps still does not realize that there is no peace treaty between the US and North Korea. 

It would have been normal to inform or consult the other former partners in the Beijing Six party talks (China, Japan, Russia) or to start talking to former or current (?) Korea specialists as to come up with a coherent strategy. The Nixon/ China model is a perfectly convincing precedent. But no, this pathological vain individual loves to surprise without early warning and with his usual clueless aplomb. He might be tempted to do the same with Syria, by the way, foregoing to thank allies who fought ISIS and let Putin (yet gain) cash another tribute.

For now Kim Jong-Un is the one calling the shots and preparing an agenda. He shows a diplomatic acumen which needs to be met by more than the bluster of the American Lothario.  Some think that the addition of John Bolton might make the American side stronger. It is doubtful that a man who is famous for his miscalculations and infamous for his behavior will be anything but a bull in the Asian porcelain shop. It is hard to fathom how this White House will prepare an agenda, positions, a draft for possible communique, etc. while there are no US ambassadors and the State Department runs on a semi-empty tank. Dennis Rodman is posting pictures of the supreme leader with a MAGA hat...this might give him a pass to be part of the US team. The White House for its part is just a subcontractor from Fox fake news, and that says it all.  What about the jailed Americans in North Korea by the way? Are those talks really unconditional ? Under Obama, the Republicans were louder than a Greek chorus in their strident indignation. Now, in this as in everything else, this dumb party and base are corralled in the pastures of shared denial.

Everything is possible. Denuclearizing North Korea is an ambitious goal. All earlier attempts failed. All should wish that Trump and Kim Jong-Un find some common ground. The chances for such an outcome would benefit from some outreach from the US to its natural or resigned allies in the region and in NATO. Actually, the fate of the Iran nuclear deal is very much linked to this formidable Korea gamble...and vice-versa. The stakes are too important to be left solely in unpredictable hands.  A consultation among all US partners is not a waste of time!


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