MIKE POMPEO

Mike Pompeo is the new Secretary of State. Career diplomats hope he might rescue them from the exile they found themselves in during Rex Tillerson's tenure. Everybody agrees that the former has been a poor manager but one should also bare in mind that the president did not mind the marginalization of the foreign affairs establishment. It remains to be seen if Pompeo will reverse course. He is obviously more in tune with Trump's worldview (if such a thing exists). One might doubt that a return to the classic codes of diplomacy is in the making because, in the end, he could even be closer to his boss and disinclined to get in the way of this White House.

On the other hand this intelligent and pushy newcomer might be able to benefit from some form of respect and awe from a president who is otherwise totally unpredictable, prone to over-simplification and to a Flintstone-like modus operandi. Trump likes macho postures and Pompeo is the type of alpha-male in favor with this "regime".  It will be interesting to see whose heads will roll next. If Bolton were to enter in this flock, the danger of more global disruption will become a threat for existing or agreed policies, in the first place among allies. Nobody will dispute Ambassador Bolton's intelligence, but his lack of tact and his disregard for any form of balanced closure are worrisome. The Asian allies feel the jolts of Trump's Korean impulse. Now the Europeans fear that this administration might renege on the Iran nuclear deal. This could lead to a de facto major split in the Western alliance which might find itself stranded. France, the United Kingdom, Germany and the EU could end up joining Russia and China in opposition to the US.  Trump may indeed want to revisit the "sunset clause", therefore reopening the agreed deal, with the unforeseeable consequences thereof.  Pompeo and Bolton are, like Trump, no fans of the agreement, and no fans of NATO either.

The current chaos in Washington could invite allies to cut loose from America's leadership. Japan, South Korea and the European allies can no longer bear the policies of  unilateral fait accompli coming out of this unreliable administration. It is to be hoped that wisdom and sobriety might prevail, but the forecast goes the other way. 

For Trump, the contradictions pile-up. London is now forcing Washington's hand after the latest Russian nerve agent attack in the United Kingdom. The  administration finally announced new sanctions against Moscow for its meddling in the 2016 US elections. Probably the president will delocalize the announcement and let his underlings do the talking. He will continue the walking.  The "no collusion" myth is on life-support but count on Trump for applying aggressive therapy.