WHEN CHINA AWAKES...

Napoleon's and others' prophecies look almost pathetic when confronted with China's strides in the recent years. Past projections were daring in view of the times in which they were made but even the wildest outcomes imagined could never have foreseen what is happening today. Only the Kuomintang left-overs, Gordon Chang and Fox News, continue to feed the denial of facts (again). In recent years China was able to synchronize political, strategic, economic and military progress. President Xi Jinping has followed a binary path, making the Communist Party fashionable again and returning to the majesty of the Middle Kingdom. Chairman Mao himself followed many imperial precedents despite the terrible mistakes made in the name of some Hegelian dialectic. 

The Chinese economy is slowly finding an equilibrium, mostly in the eastern part. Xinjiang, Gansu and Qinghai continue to lag behind. Besides, the minorities who live in those regions remain largely impervious to what they perceive as a Han Chinese "heavy hand". Beijing has not been able to rally Uigurs, Mongols and Tibetans.  Elsewhere, the proximity of Guangxi, the poorest province, with Guangdong, the richest, is yet another example of regional inequalities which are becoming structural. The Chinese leadership is monitoring these situations and an ambitious policy to boost internal consumption, investment and infrastructure is under way. Some problems however are socio-cultural.  Beijing hides, too often, an iron fist in its velvet glove.

Trump gave China an unexpected gift in ending the Trans-Pacific Partnership initiated by President Obama. In doing so, he gave China carte blanche and sent negative signals to the US traditional allies in Asia who are arriving at the logical conclusion that it might be wiser to appease the neighbor next door than to please the unreliable partner far away. China can now pursue an unhindered policy of benign hegemony in Southeast Asia.  Tokyo and Seoul continue to play the American card for reason of self-protection rather than for love. Some argue that India will be a counterweight to China but such an outcome appears to be far- fetched, despite Secretary of State Tillerson's "enthusiasm".  President Xi has  also transformed the PLA into a formidable military force, and its sea power into a blue water navy able to patrol at large, as Admiral Zheng He did during the Ming dynasty.  Yet again, President Xi refers to history for matching purpose with fact.

After Hong Kong's return to China in 1997, many observers became pessimistic about the future. So were many residents. Beijing was too smart to walk into the trap of gross interference in the affairs of the new SAR (Special Administrative Region). The Chinese respected the letter of the basic law while being "creative" with the spirit thereof. China has become more like Hong Kong, while the latter is becoming more like China. They form one country with a few manageable  tensions since both are fairing well after the warm-up of the mariage de raison. The Han Chinese of the diaspora in Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia created an economic success model that became an inspiration for the mainland reform-minded Communists. Besides, they poured know-how and money into China directly or via Hong Kong.

President Xi belongs to the party's "nomenclature". He is also a man who knows his history and is all too familiar with the humiliations, occupations, and treaty ports of the past. The Middle Kingdom must receive again what it considers to be its rank and its due. The Communist Party is considered to be perfect link between a prestigious past and a promising future. In the past, President Nixon's acquiescence of the Shanghai Communique was considered a win for China. Today this would be considered insufficient.  Besides, an American president might feel snubbed, as was the case with President Obama. After all, America is in retreat. China is tomorrow's superpower. Too bad that the range of an ambition, which is impressive, is still stained by the induced Tienanmen amnesia which remains unforgivable. The Chinese dream needs to come clean !