AGGRAVATION VERSUS CONTAINMENT

The tension regarding the North Korean situation is becoming critical. The North Korean leader is untested. The American "accidental" president is unpredictable. It is difficult to read the tea leaves when the ruler of the Hermit Kingdom is a cypher while Trump is difficult to coral.

Both sides are guilty of overreach but the undisciplined vocabulary of President Trump--besides his lazy unfamiliarity with historical or diplomatic know-how--is dangerous because it does not go well with a form of presidential hauteur that is expected from a head of state.   It also collides with an Asian obsession with  "face". 

The only way to avoid a form of Armageddon is to deescalate. All possible avenues of diplomacy have to be considered to get out of this impasse. Washington has the means, the ways and, more important, a reserve of untapped actors who could help roll back the tension. Until now, Trump only multiplies the flash points, which is all the more dangerous in the absence (?) of a credible line of communication, other than the North Korean representation to the United Nations.

While one has a hard time to phantom what goes on in Pyongyang, one should be  equally nervous about what might trigger the psyche of the American president. He appears unable to be selective, navigating simultaneously the existential, the mundane and the sordid.  He tweets about North Korea, health care, sports, about whatever crosses his ego. His sloppy vocabulary and undisciplined urgency never change. His secretary of defense, national security team and joint chiefs of staff are reputed to be cautious and informed, but at the end of the day Trump generally listens only to the thin skinned, amateurish Trump.

The outcome of this crisis is uncertain. A major armed conflict can be avoided. If Trump is hapless, others are not. China in the first place will not remain passive if hell might break loose on its northern borders. Others would also intervene before South Korea could be transformed in a crematorium. A joint diplomatic action can still be considered so that some form of respite brings the world back from the abyss. 

This crisis is totally atypical. North Korea chose to be a loner. The United States  never was.  In the past the US could count on some form of automatic solidarity from allies and friendly states. With Trump everything has changed. Since he trivialized NATO, goes the nationalistic way, he ends up having few friends. His growing Mussolini-like bombast turns allies off. After his disastrous UN performance, he has better beware of the boomerang(s) effect. Over the heads in the UN he spoke to his base alone. After Trump's disastrous rejection of the TPP  and his reversals about climate change and the nuclear deal with Iran, the post-World War II world order and pax Americana are on life support!