Wednesday, July 5, 2017

MEET YOU IN PYONGYANG.

The Korean Rubik cube is a challenge with, in the short term, no positive outcome in view. The earlier ICBM stunt only confirms the usual pattern of Pyongyang's behavior in the conduct of foreign affairs. There is a temptation to run ahead of the consequences of this incremental routine, while it might be wiser not to be fooled by what one sees in the convex mirror which is being presented.

Many corrective and coercive avenues have been tried and they all have failed. Nevertheless, one should reject over-reacting or actively pursuing largely unachievable military options 

The only way out is to revisit the diplomatic option. It has been tried before but it needs to be reinstated, in a different form. It may sound bizarre, but after "discreet" soundings, an offer might be made to open talks in the North Korean capital, stressing the break with the past. With all parties present and under scrutiny of the media, this formula would have the advantage to let some air in Pyongyang and in the Hermit Kingdom as a whole. It would put pressure on a regime which usually gets its way because there is a lack of onlookers. North Korea could still refuse to host talks in its capital but it would be obliged to own that decision.  China and Russia, together with the US, need to be more closely involved in laying a diplomatic trap. South Korea and Japan must likewise be seen, on equal footing with the "larger"partners. The goal is to make North Korea look and feel "small" and wake up.

Kim Jong Un cannot be allowed to get away with any deal which would add credence to accepting a denuclearizing of the Korean peninsula in exchange for the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea. The nuclear and ICBM issues have to be decoupled, for now, from the US military component behind the Korean demilitarized zone.  The North would love nothing more than to swallow the South by stealth or by any other means. Instead, a peace treaty might be considered to replace the 1953 armistice. The Sunshine policies of South Korea's former president Kim Dee-Jung could likewise be resumed, if North Korea's military-first policy (Songun) is rolled back.

The measures and sanctions under discussion in the Security Council are unhelpful insofar as they will discourage parties with some influence to give in to American pressure. China's reserve is understandable. An implosion of North Korea would send an unforeseeable number of refugees into China and create a destabilization which here and elsewhere constitutes a nightmare for the Chinese imperative of order at any price. The Korean situation asks for sophisticated diplomacy and is adverse to primitive tweeting.

Kim Jong-un and his entourage have benefited too long from inhabiting a glass house. Diplomacy must break the windows first, without loss of face for the culprit and all benefice for the people. Holding multi-party talks for all to see on his territory might appeal to Kim's ego and at the same time oblige him to allow some real communication with the world, and give the North Koreans an opportunity to wake up from their comatose existence.

It is risky but doing nothing or overdoing is worse.



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