Monday, June 26, 2017

US AND EUROPE : TWO HOUSES DIVIDED.

The Trump family's power grip has been compared to a Godfather IV scenario, but lately it looks and feels more like Reservoir Dogs. The lies, hour after hour, tweet after tweet, are making for a daily cholesterol-rich tiramisu. While the president is unable to climb over his maximum 38% approval rate, he continues to be the "poster boy" of the many fools who see in him the shield which protects them from a godless, gunless, whiteless, non-male alternative. This abrasive, not grown-up New Yorker "delocalized" his own golden spoon persona to make room for being the chosen one in the eyes of the Bible belt voters (and others). This tour de 'farce' should not be underestimated. No doubt, if elections took place now, he would be reelected by the same margin and score thanks to a repeat of the electoral college stunt.

The culture war is also being fought in Europe. In the recent past, Western Europe (the original EU six, mostly) was shaken by a sudden cultural/sociological negative acceleration when the former consensus looked endangered . Freedom of choice, secular progress, sexual equalizing, had dislodged former more conservative models.While the fall of the Berlin Wall was a direct result of the bankrupt confidence in Eastern Europe, it also created a kind of blase, lazy skepticism.  Accepted globalization was confronted with a wave of opposition, driven by a desire to return to the "self ". This rise of populism came to a (provisory?) halt in Western Europe after the Dutch and French elections. It still pops up in Greece, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Serbia, Poland, Croatia and Latvia. The Iron Curtain was replaced by an alternative partition. In the EU, Brexit created a second fault-line, with the result that the UK, which lost its empire after World War II, risks losing its relevance now in its near abroad.

The continental European drift has its counterpart in the US, albeit in a different form. Since January 20th, the polarization sets blue and red states apart. The mutual contempt is aggravated by an overall retreat of truth and by the hourly intrusions of a president who ignores the demarcation between facts and lies. The liberal, secular majority is ignored. California and New York are avoided in favor of the fly-over states which still adhere to Trump's global denial. The essential rules of governance are being deconstructed with impunity. In foreign affairs, Secretary Tillerson looks more and more like William Rogers, Nixon's short-lived and forgotten secretary of State. Besides the noise, this White House (and other departments) have become a vault with almost zero communication with the media, considered hostile. Only Fox, the ultimate fake news junky, chooses to sell the little integrity it has left for exclusive access to Trump's henchmen.

Both sides of the Atlantic must regroup. In Europe, the Western partners in the EU have to find a way to stem the populist drift in the eastern part. In America, the Democrats have to steer an aggressive message less ad hominem than ad rem. Both corrections will be difficult. In Europe, Putin must be deprived of having porous states at his western borders. In the US, the Democrats have to regain credibility in states which were lost for a whim rather than for a reason.

Sometimes the West looks as if the religious wars from the past could be reignited. In America, Obama's "forward looking agenda" is being attacked by some form of "retro roll-back". In Europe the EU must regain its fundamental appeal which is threatened by an institutional mid-life crisis and unsubstantiated resentment.

While Putin can be considered a strategic negative, Trump is a viral disturbance which attacks the vital components of the democratic system. Putin is about power, which he understands all too well. Trump is about eruptive chaos, which others serve him and which he does not grasp.  His approval rate in Europe is 5%.  What ever became of the shared Atlantic vision? There is nothing else to do for the Europeans than to clean house and start some hard reviewing of the workings of the EU (Brexit must be isolated before it contaminates others). The Americans must hope for a stop-sign after next year's mid-term elections. The Democrats had better reconsider now who will be the right man or woman in the right place then. Reversals are not answered prayers, they are hard work.

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