BALANCE OF POWER GAMES ARE BACK

The world order is being remodeled under our eyes. It is generally admitted that the pendulum is being redirected towards Asia. This is a fact, easy to ascertain. This needs also to take into account that Asia, as Europe before, is diverse in many aspects. Some conflicts are hard to manage (China/India, India/Pakistan), others are hidden (the Mekong dispute).  A few are historical by nature (the feuds between China and South Korea with Japan), one is structural (the Korean peninsula). Furthermore, the socio-economic inequalities between states are abundant.

Nevertheless, Asia accelerates and upgrades its capacity for branding sophisticated goods and for spreading soft-power on all fronts. Japan, China, India and the former Asian "tigers" are formidable indicators for the quantitative and qualitative changes which have occurred in the last years. Now China comes up with global initiatives which enhance its strategic range.

Russia assumes, for now, the role of cynical voyeur. It is reclaiming former zones of influence East and West. It plays both its European and Asian credentials, sizing opportunities when they appear. It intends to push the EU back and tries to erode the credibility of NATO. It plays the Eurasian card with China when convenient, and upgrades its role in Antarctica (tomorrow's economic challenge).

This starts to look like a remake, on a global scale, of yesterday's classic balance- of-power games. After the inglorious end of the Soviet Union, some spoke about "the end of history". Today we see that history has been reprogrammed and that the former idees de grandeur from a few have been taken hostage by new players who do not feel bound by precedence. The rise of China is the most spectacular correction of the past trajectory. Not only was China able to lift its weight and multiple strengths in all fields, it is reclaiming and projecting the "Chinese dream" inside and abroad. 

All these changes result in part from mostly American "reluctance". President Obama managed a difficult equilibrium (with uneven results) between an agenda for the  good and an abhorrence of the muddle. His "strategic patience" has been criticized, sometimes rightly so, but his foreign policy now looks more commendable with every passing day.  His successor's mendacious, false statements alienate America's allies and end up playing in the hands of mostly the Chinese President Xi, who has the luxury to appear as the antithesis of Trump, as a steady, reliable statesman. Putin, the third man, is too happy playing the part of the Cheshire cat, purring while Trump keeps adding gaffes to lies, on a daily basis.

If Trump were only hurting himself, one could wait for the democratic process to bring an end to this insufferable, confused man/child's usurpation. More serious is that the United States are suffering a loss of prestige and influence worldwide. Other actors are too happy to show off their  better mature behavior score, which sets them apart from this "American psycho" in free-fall. 

The United States have been taken hostage by a syndicate. The Trump administration often looks clueless in foreign affairs. Abandoning the Trans pacific partnership is a major diplomatic blunder This uninformed president (prisoner of his short attention span) might well send the world into a tailspin (by pure incompetence), or arrive at some band-aid formula (by sheer luck) for a Middle East "deal". Anything is possible...but one should not expect this president to understand Dr. Kissinger's Westphalian system.

At the end of the day one can see an existential fight between two opposing camps. One dares to meet the challenges of climate change, bias, trade, gender equality, health disruptions, good governance. The other prefers walls, retreat, denial. Unfortunately Trump chose for the latter, setting the clock of shared progress back for now ...and this unfortunate choice will have much larger consequences than the "Russian file".