President Trump has intervened militarily in Syria in response to Assad's use of chemical weapons. This volte face took many by surprise, since the administration said no later than last week that the removal of the Syrian president was no longer a priority for now. Obviously this sudden decision was caused by a number of reasons and might have an equal number of consequences, foreseeable or not:
--Trump's choice comes at a moment when his initiatives abort and his poll numbers become abysmal. He might expect to benefit from his wearing the mantle of commander-in-chief. His awkward announcement sounded almost "pope-ish" when he "incorporated" the world in God's blessings. I bet the comedians will come up with great one liners after this new presidential overreach.
--It is hard to make sense of his total u-turn in thinking. This latest action stands against all Trump 's earlier statements made after President Obama reversed his red-line warning. It appears that he might have listened to impulse rather than to reason. The victims of the chemical onslaught should not hide the immensity of a drama wherein tens of thousands have been killed or are trying to escape. The empathy of the president stops at the US borders which are almost hermetically closed to Syrian refugees.
--It remains to be seen if there is a Plan B and if this might lead to a larger strategy with Sunni states. Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Assad will not stand by. Iraq, which sits in between reason (USA) and reality (Iran), finds itself in an uncomfortable situation.
--Russia's reaction will be "measured" but it will fully exploit the propaganda angle through public diplomacy and its usual nefarious handling of fake news and media infiltration. "De- conflicting" might have to wait for better (?) days. By entering Russia's turf in Syria, Trump may hope to have gotten rid of the Russian albatross at home, but count on the Democrats to keep the Russian connection alive!
--The timing of the concomitant summit with President Xi is unfortunate. If there was no prior warning the Chinese side might consider the "overshadowing" of this important bilateral meeting as most unfortunate. Besides, the setting in Mar-a-Lago does not take into account certain Chinese particularities in terms of protocol and a more oblique way of messaging. After the demise of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, President Xi got his strategic wish fulfilled. Hence he can afford to be magnanimous.
--Two negatives have become clearer. The infighting in the White House is becoming a liability. The iconoclast Bannon faction looks like giving up terrain to the traditional Kushner line (if such a thing exists). The unpredictability of Trump makes for a very difficult future. In all areas, trade, Middle East, Syria, NATO, EU, NAFTA, etc., yesterday's truth becomes to day's refutation. Trump is a reactive personality who responds upon visual stimuli rather than to the reasoning/alternatives mantra. It is difficult to elaborate a longer term policy when everything is in permanent deconstruction. The Trump of today erases yesterday's namesake. The vortex of chaos widens and it becomes doubtful that anyone or anything--not even his family or the teleprompter--will be able to rein him in.
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