As usual European and US leaders gathered in Munich for an informal brainstorming regarding current events. Munich is the Davos for the many who did not get a chance to elbow their way onto the "magic mountain." Since January 20th the Trump aftershocks continue to rattle Europe, and all the attention focused naturally on the US/Europe matrimonial crisis. The American vice-president was there. If the expectation was that he would somehow be able to reassure nervous Europeans, the hope was trashed upon his arrival. He uttered the usual unimaginative platitudes, avoiding to refer to the European Union. His meeting with the German chancellor had the warmth of a North Korean embrace. The rumors regarding continuous talks from Trump surrogates with the Russian side did nothing to restore any sort of trust.
Both NATO and Europe received polite acknowledgment but the words and praise are undermined by the above-mentioned parallel and contradictory channels of communication which have no State Department approval. The new secretary of State looks like his unhappy predecessor under President Nixon, William Rogers, who was overshadowed by Dr. Kissinger's NSC before being sent packing. The vacancies in State since the inauguration continue to undermine its policy-making. Trump does not like the Foggy Bottom establishment. Hence Sarah Palin might get an Ambassadorship to Canada...REAL !
The EU finds itself in an almost "no-win" situation. Brexit might have followers elsewhere. The upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany are "existential". Whatever the outcome, the known praxis will be shaken to the core. If worse were to happen, Germany will have to assume a leadership which it is most reluctant to claim. Once again Moscow and Berlin could find themselves at the center of European affairs, with London on sick leave, Washington in free-fall and France in Victor Hugo-mood. Since the Visegrad countries are following a different path, Germany would be exposed on all sides: east, west and south.
If an accelerated falling apart of the EU were to occur, one had better run for the lifeboats. Populism is a very anti-intellectual force. It appeals often to demagogues (Farange comes to mind) who have no stake in a project that shunned them and which they came to hate out of spite. The more responsible European leaders who defend an improved NATO or EU use an arsenal of arguments which is far too sophisticated to be able to enter mindsets set against the "elites". Imagine a victory of the "Leave" camp in the Netherlands or France (Germany looks still unlikely to follow this perverse path). The EU would be reduced to a single power, since other claimants, Spain and Italy, cannot present the critical mass needed to be believable. All this might also put in motion former models which were active in the Messina, Treaty of Rome negotiations or during the Soviet threat, mostly Finland and Belgium. If Belgium is able to control its internal demons it could again return to its former innovative diplomacy (Paul-Henri Spaak, Viscount Etienne Davignon, Pierre Harmel, Andre de Staercke) both in the EU and NATO. This would need the support of Germany, obviously. Finland knows, as no other, how to deal with the Kremlin.
The Brexit negotiation is worth some Sisyphus comparison. Besides the technical nightmarish disentangling, there will be a need for psychological therapy. The former very intelligent Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt will have to control his outspoken Federalist credo and modulate his often extreme views. Europe and the EU need each other, after all! I think that in this Mrs. Merkel follows the right path: adverse to melodrama, adept at Realpolik over ideology.
It is important to reign in the American president's ego before it goes into free-fall mode, and his subsequent compulsion to give Putin the importance he craves, over the heads of the Europeans. The Russian is all too eager to hold up the mirror to this bloated, loud Narcissus-in- need-of-applause in his Sunset Boulevard fantasy. He had better be cognizant of the tragic end of this prophetic movie and be wise not to be fooled by the adulation (for now) of his 1936-type rallies!
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