Sunday, December 11, 2016

TRUMP REX

The President-elect is showing his true colors...peacock-like.  Day after day one has to face the reality of a man who becomes more of an American version of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and less the savior of the coal miners and the Rust Belt. How long will it take before the "deplorables" who voted for him will feel cheated?
His cabinet is filled with mostly plutocrats (who might be smart). His presumed choice for Secretary of State, the CEO of Exxon, Rex Tillerson, is known more for his connection with Putin than diplomatic savoir faire.  Presidents have the right to correct former political and diplomatic priorities, and Trump is entitled to follow a worldview which is different from the one of his predecessor.  It has to be acknowledged that President Obama often followed a path of ambiguity, wherein skepticism often interfered with clarity.  Under Trump, the deck of cards is the opposite. He lacks any form of moral, historical references or doubt and appears to see power as a test of give-and-take, with no room for equivocation.  In his mindset, the anno 2017 Western Europe partner does no longer count as an equal, since he sees it almost devoid of "hard power".  He prefers the company of "partners in crime", both in his inner circle and in the world. His considerations are purely practical, cynical and devoid of any form of empathy. The formation of his cabinet gives a clear indication of his "instinct and bluff".  He parades, flatters, ridicules, and manipulates without any form of courtesy or warmth. The victims are fools but so are the winners since everything becomes just a deal for convenience. His Vice-President plays the part of the anti-LGBT Sancho Panza henchman, which leaves Trump off the hook (sounds 1930s familiar).
We are watching a "coup" in modern Western terms. America is being taken over by the overhaul of what it was supposed to stand for:  pax americana, a force for the better (if not for the good), a moral compass, a laboratory open for the "other".  The post-electoral message is one of retreat, anti free trade (TPP), selfish purpose and moral  indifference.  We might enter a form of dictatorship of the "unproven".  The choice of (yet another) general, Michael Flynn, as National Security Adviser speaks louder than words.  He--and his son--share with others (Trump included) fantasies which have a more direct link with advanced paranoia than with certified truth.
Obviously, all this does not happen in a void. Obama's philosophical presidency left many loopholes and paradoxical situations. He refused to get involved in Syria but went out of his way to arrive at a deal with Iran.  He under-reacted regarding moves from both China and Russia, but took a bold move with Cuba and climate change. He achieved the Affordable Care Act but failed to find an overall modus operandi with Congress (which did not play ball). The President looked and acted at times too polished, too cool, more attuned to Shakespeare than to the vulgarities of power politics. Obviously, his successor has no need for books or references other than himself.  Hence, we can expect entertainment of a man with short attention span thin skin and little patience.
All this would be less serious in any other country than the United States. Under President Trump, the Western alliance might be ailing.  He has already trespassed all decorum when getting mixed up with Brexit, NATO, proliferation, Russia, China, alienating allies and pleasing the "post WWII borders denier".  His crass indifference to truth and experience is his bliss, recognizable in his choices for his cabinet. Imagine his ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, confronting her formidable Russian counterpart....speaking of catnip!
What is at stake is the major contribution of America to world affairs. From the day of their independence on, the new United States stood for enlightened governance, often with mixed results. Indeed, the war between the states, the slavery stain, the often crude and erratic foreign policy stood too often against the principles enshrined in Jefferson's ideal and in the Federalist Papers.  Still, there was always a push to improve what went wrong. Now that the power has been outsourced to mostly captains of finance and industry, the decision-making will be made in some form or other of boardroom deal and expediency. The lofty goals set up around the League of Nations, the Dumbarton Oaks order, the Peace Corps, the Alliance for Progress, the Great Society look suddenly almost obsolete. Obama tried, with uneven success, to consolidate this formidable heritage, but ended up being both a perpetuator of history and its final undertaker. Trump will divest his administration of most forms of truth, social justice and continuity. He anesthetizes the Republicans and will "Tweet" his mood swings over the heads of all branches of power. The executive and legislative powers are already echo chambers and the Supreme Court will be packed with narrow-minded constitutionalists. The Russian hag (?) is a sword of Damocles which will test the Republicans ulimate bona fide.
Europe is the big loser.  Sitting between an aggressive Russia and an indifferent Trump administration, stung by Brexit ( which will create major after shocks in the future), hit by structural dysfunctions, it is adrift and risks becoming irrelevant. True, the President-elect has so many loopholes in his curriculum (past and present) that he is a prey for impeachment. However, the Republicans are already neutered and the Trump machine will be a formidable force. Wall Street is partying on the coffin of Dodd-Frank. The oligarchs and "strong" leaders in all parts of the world will have their day!
Nevertheless, this American Cromwell had better be cognizant that the Restoration could have a come-back, with a vengeance. 



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