ITALEXIT ?

The Italian P.M. Matteo Renzi lost the constitutional referendum by a large margin.  He made the same miscalculation as David Cameron, presenting the vote as a judgment about himself rather than about the issues at stake. The "hubris" in those situations often backfires.  The result is bad for Italy and for the EU. It comes at a time when France, Germany, the Netherlands are faced with equally difficult choices in the near-futures. The euro and the institutional challenges risk being challenged by the same dark forces which gave us Brexit and Trump.

It is normal that democracies are exposed to some form of Hegelian dialectic. Unfortunately, in Italy and elsewhere opposition reposed mostly on an anti-intellectual, anti-historic mantra. The so-called working class has become an agent for regression. Rather than fighting for competitive modern jobs, they fight on behalf of arguments rooted in fear and denial. Instead of welcoming opportunities for change and technologically advanced alternatives, they defend a social order biased against free-trade, globalization and high-quality employment.  In the US, the Trump doctrine is already making the wrong moves which might end up only giving the Rust Belt a new lease and not a healthy awakening.

Returning to Italy, one might fear that most of Southern Europe's ills--in Greece, Italy, Spain--
could spread and further undermine the cohesion of the EU.  There is no other way but for the member states to remain on the same page.  By the way, the populist factions are the unwilling (?) handlers of Putin's ambitions. As in America, certain conservative forces in Europe have become disenchanted with the acceleration of a secular cultural tempest, considered elitist in the pursuit of a model of society disregarding a labor force stuck in irrelevant jobs. The added value of this technological age is looked upon with suspicion and disdain.  Proposals made under the umbrella of clean energy, climate change, better education, and equal pay fall on deaf ears. Candiate Clinton's message here was equally "returned to sender" by those who would have benefited the most.  P.M. Renzi fell victim to the same agents of "non-change".  The EU has to address this visceral paranoia which exists in one form or another in all member states. Nigel Farage is a buffoon but this aberration finds a large audience. The Italian five-star movement with Beppe Grillo (Trump admirer) who led the fight for a "No" does not look or act like a serious player in this allegro ma (non) troppo, but there as here, never say "never"...  Grillo wants to leave the Euro zone!

Italy will find itself in a political quagmire. One can expect to see a bruised euro and a crisis which might affect too many in and out of Italy while serving the short-sighted impropriety of too few.  Pessimists foresee a possible U-turn from Italy regarding the EU. The Treaty of Rome without Italy is a non-starter. The aftershocks of this referendum will be unpleasant. They will not be fatal.