Sunday, July 17, 2016

TURKISH DELIGHTS

I am not a fan of the Turkish president.  I dislike even more military coups. Turkey is essential, as a NATO member and as a (difficult) partner in the fight against ISIL.

By considering to reinstate the death penalty, Erdogan might create yet another obstacle in his dealings with the EU. Anyhow, neither side looks overzealous.  Nevertheless, the West must beware of jeopardizing an essential (expensive) partner in stemming the migrant flow into Europe.  One has also to keep in mind the possible consequences of a Mubarak scenario. The Turkish president is a difficult ally but the West cannot afford to lose him. He will clean house and crush the secular army component. The West has no other alternative than to wait this out.

It looks yet again as if the US and the EU were taken by surprise. What did Intelligence know?
Obviously the situation leaves us with a riddle, unprepared. In the hands of a ruthless Turkish president, all options are on the table. The most undesirable outcome would be a rapprochement with Putin. 

Unwelcome news keeps coming in...Trump must have a day! 


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