Two ominous developments are playing havoc with the world's tectonic plates. They obey to different speeds and goals but they are creating a "tropic of unbalance."
The Middle East is engulfed in a turmoil which may end up rewriting the post World War I order and borders. The growing atrocities might finally alienate the Muslims from the radical jihadists but the tribal component may also reverse the imposed artificial nation/state supra- structure which can no longer contain trans-border loyalties. In Europe, the Ukraine crisis is a flagrant violation of past agreements and order, threatening what was an agreed post-Cold War system. The communist disintegration obliged Gorbachev to abandon a bloated, costly utopia in favor of normalcy. Putin wants to regain the lost quantity by sacrificing the found quality. The latter is a story of deconstruction. The former is a story of reconstruction.
Both events are veering into higher speed, out of control .
The Middle East has always been misunderstood by the West. It became the matter of a "tale" which was both unrealistic and, to a point, unfair. Karl Marx said that "they cannot represent themselves; they must be represented." Such thinking opens the doors for all the fallacies of orientalism. The reality was starved in favor of a mythology, the hungry beast woke and the ringleader is gone.
Ukraine is by far a more calibrated danger. It reminds me of Churchill's boutade after proposing a toast to Stalin's professed desire for peace, adding sotto voce "a piece of Poland, a piece of Czechoslovakia, a piece of Romania..." Putin will not stop since he knows he does not have to. Sanctions do hurt indeed, and the new Russian middle-class is now fed with slogans rather than with past luxuries or easy money. Putin knows the Russian history and plays the nationalistic, orthodox card with brio. His thugs do the dirty job in Eastern Ukraine and Kiev looks on. Diplomacy can only be continued if there is good faith and verification. Crimea cannot be forgotten, otherwise the Budapest Memorandum or the Helsinki Agreement will end up in the Munich Wastebasket. The slow breakdown of recognized borders has a rather unpleasant deja vu connotation. The German-French peace efforts cannot become a substitute for "absolution" or for a fait accompli in disguise.
In both theaters the United States and the European Union are mere voyeurs. President Obama does not grasp the call of history or the importance of the toll the West will pay for a unforgivable lack of vision and guts. Germany will not undercut its Ostbindung and Russia will march on. Ukraine is a difficult partner for the West and it is easy to understand why the Americans are reluctant to deliver lethal weapons. An accident could lead to a most dangerous conflagration between the bold and the timid.
The Arab world has to be put in a sort of parenthesis. Because of the faults of some, the Muslims run the risk of becoming the new "pariahs." This is mostly their doing, since it is hard to see a Mandela or Havel in their midst. As long as they are unable to separate nation-building and belief, as long as they avoid reciprocity, they are doomed to be the wardens of their misfortunes. What we see is a repeat of a 100-years war. Should the West get involved? Yes, but only if there were to rise an enlightened alternative, which is dubious in the short-term.
The fight against ISIL looks more like shadow boxing, and the fear to call the monster by its name does not win you friends and only emboldens enemies.
Both for Ukraine and the Middle East (not to forget the events in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia) the fight has to come into the open and the division between the frequentables and the beasts has to be made clear. Realpolitik, the workings of parallel circuits (Arab
charities, energy, safety) can no longer have a free-hand in a world wherein the rule of law has been marginalized with impunity. Leaders must be "outed" for their intentions. Double-talk can be a great performance but it should not be allowed to rule. A meeting for the willing, friends and foes, is more appropriate than a coalition of the hidden-from-view. There is too much micro ma management lately, which provides cover for procrastination.
The road ahead is slippery. Better avoid falling into a Carryb and Sylla dilemna. The West should equally beware of falling victim to a "guilt complex" which only feeds the frenzy of the "outlaws" who have found an easy pass to become a fifth column in its own midst. They eat as long as they are fed.
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