The Minsk Agreement found the proper setting for its DOA (Dead on Arrival) shroud: Belarus. The country of President Alexander Lukashenko looks like a European version of North Korea... "light". And, while shrouds are not supposed to have pockets, this one has lots, thanks to Putin's design.
Under the current circumstances the deal may well have been the less-undesirable outcome, even short-lived. Ukraine is the offspring of circumstances which Russia, early on, did not want and which the West got stuck in. The hard line of the Russians matches the embarrassment of the West. The Merkel/Hollande duo looked almost pathetic in Minsk, while Putin retreated behind his usual judo/karate persona. The Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was just a patient on a gurney, wondering which limb might be cut next. Mariupol looks ripe for an other rebel/Russian kiss of death.
The ceasefire should start February 15. Ukraine is supposed to be able to monitor its eastern borders again at the end of 2015, after the East will have been given a de facto free-ride, albeit in the Ukrainian state. The future of the weapons, other than the "heavy" ones, of verification, of financial support for Kiev and respect for its freedom of choice remain unpredictable.
Contrary to the Helsinki Agreement, European borders are fair game from now on!
Sanctions can bite nevertheless. Moscow feels the pain. On the other hand, Putin's internal firewall policies allow him to remain in control of a public opinion which is easy to manipulate, since there is no real collective memory of pluralistic times. From the Tzars to the Soviet Union and now into Putin's logic, the story line is one of reactionary orthodox immobility and slick propaganda. If and when the "rebels" make another move, it is to be hoped that further sanctions will multiply, without delay. It is one thing to have to swallow a bitter pill, it is altogether another to relish it.
Putin is trying to compensate for his losses through bold moves with China, Egypt and Greece. At least we should abstain from paying for his travel expenses! Neither should we isolate him, which only adds to the stature of what he is in reality: a highly shrewd apparatchik. He must be measured in the open, as an undesirable interloper, looking ill at ease, misplaced, when seen in an enlightened gathering. Let us beware of an other George W. Bush "portrait".
As usual, the Obama Administration chose to be absent, this time in Minsk. Ambassador Richard Holbrooke must turn in his grave!
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