Monday, July 28, 2014

ISRAEL-GAZA: NO END IN SIGHT

Semantics can be misleading.  The current situation regarding Israel and Hamas is often labelled as though this were a conflict between "equal" entities.  Israel is a state.  Hamas is a terrorist organization which wants to wipe Israel from the map.

The political servitude being what it is, the unequal parties to the current conflict need nevertheless to find a modus vivendi.  Israel has to be recognized as a force for improvement of conditions in the region while the people in Gaza should make Hamas accountable for the hardship which continues as a result of a "set in stone" anti-Israel mindset.

Every civilized onlooker wants peace and begs for the destruction to stop. The images out of Gaza are an indictment of war and of the folly of fanaticism.  The rockets fired over Israel are primitive but could soon be replaced by more sophisticated ones still in the hands of Hezbollah. The more Israel goes after the tunnels and variable launching sites, the more rockets risk  being  installed under the guise of civilian buildings, with increasing "collateral" tragic consequences which can be expected, unfortunately. 

Palestinians face a double-barreled conundrum. They are oppressed by their own narrative and at the same time they are virtually off-limits in the region, so that normality becomes unreachable. Israel will sooner or later have to make difficult choices and should therein be supported by its natural partners in the West, the region and the world at large. I am surprised by certain comments which mostly dwell on the "disproportionate" retaliation of Israel regarding Gaza.  How does one calibrate a counter-offensive against W.M.D. which do not discriminate between targets?
Sooner or later Hamas will have to be "included" in an overall settlement, on condition that it departs from its perverse charter. Until then it has no other choice than to be counted among the swelling ranks of rogue organizations which pursue nihilistic agendas .

Of course a cease-fire is needed, although this will probably again be an ad hoc arrangement between a legitimate state on one side and a non-entity on the other.  The so-called Palestinian unity government with Fatah looks unconvincing, at the least.

The EU, as usual, cannot be found.  The US tries but seems prone to talking to the Egyptians on even days, and to rely on Qatar and Turkey on uneven days, although the latter have indulged lately in mostly ambiguous agendas.

Public opinion in the West is, rightly, alarmed by the loss of life, but too often reporters let emotions overtake analysis of cause and effect.  Bad taste hit another alarming level when the "HOLOcaust--GAZAcaust" commentary entered the media.

Israel does not have a free pass but it is entitled to self-defense. The people in Gaza need a breathing space and in the end they deserve the right to be free from occupation by Hamas inside and from containment outside. Only familiarity with others can broaden the range of hearts and minds.

The Jihadists pursue a wide strategy of a spotted leopard skin... creating everywhere, from Nigeria to the Philippines, "safe havens" which can destabilize the "host country," as the Iraq and Afghanistan debilitating infirmities show so clearly.  Patients need to be monitored rather than ignored, as is too often the case.

The American secretary of state can only do so much.  The President should speak out.  He might consider taking his cue from President Nixon who, in equally difficult circumstances, was not shy about engaging his Soviet counter-part while at the same time depriving him of his zone of influence. He finalized a nuclear deal with the Soviet Union while simultaneously expanding the offensive against Moscow's beneficiaries.  He applied cynical means to end the US involvement in S.E. Asia, but achieved his goal!   Diplomacy is not a missionary job after all.  Let us imagine for a moment what President Nixon would have done regarding Ukraine.  Probably he would already have been to Moscow.  Remember his visit to Cairo when his fate was in the balance at home? 
The Nixon/Kissinger formula worked, be it with a cynical twist, but then diplomacy is not for the weak.  Compared to the aftermath of other recent American reckless and unpredictable moves, past "coups" look unattainable nowadays.

The United States appears stranded in some dubious mindset on most issues, which leaves its partners bemused and its foes emboldened. 

The new spat between Ankara and Cairo is another nightmare awaiting John Kerry who has to try untangling the Gordian knots which are multiplying all over the globe. This happens when the captain of the ship is perceived, rightly or wrongly, as being too often AWOL.



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