It is becoming impossible to make sense of the leaves in the global political pot of tea.
Unfortunately, if one tries to see through the overall world ambivalence, one risks ending up sounding like some cranky old person.
The American President looks more comfortable in the now (in)famous fern decor or chit-chatting with the Pope while his Chinese counterpart charms Europe, not to mention the world .
Putin has been compared with mostly unsavory figures. Some of his moves reek of deja vu but he is more Bismarck than any other shrewd historical figure who might come to mind. Contrary to him the Western counterpart appears having no clothes. This does not diminish recognized superiority in hard and soft power but it does highlight that the West was lured into a situation for which it remains largely unprepared, looking leaderless and rudderless. The few who still believe in NATO's "symmetric" deterrent regarding current "Mittel European" events are misguided and better get ready for Alka Seltzer +, just in case. Nobody will lift a military finger if Putin decides to melt the sugar lumps at his border. He is not impressed by sanctions which will hurt but will end up being cushioned in the nationalistic frenzy which is a brush fire that engulfs the Russian soul.
Indeed, the West has nothing in terms of an uplifting counter-measure. Ukraine is just a mouse for the Russian tomcat. The other side of the coin is that the West - primary the United States- has to run- while Russia waits for the dominoes to fall in its net.
Meanwhile Iran has decided to send a more-than-dubious representative to the UN, a slap in the face of Washington (so much for "appeasement"). Congress, unfortunately so, is still blocking major trade deals with Asia and the EU despite the President's rhetorical performance in Brussels. As if this were not enough, the American automobile sector, infrastructure and internal congruence appear to be on life-support.
What would Kissinger do? Given that his worldview is no longer, his former therapy equally no longer applies. I could imagine that he nevertheless would find a way to impose leadership rather than having to wait for the "other" to move. In today's world this can only be done by coalition building. Putin's moves look ominous to most onlookers and bystanders. They are waiting in vain for the American Primus inter pares to assemble a force which combines moral force with political astuteness. Issues such as the avatars of the Arab Spring, Iran, and the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians should be put on ice for a while. There is too much that resembles "action" while it is really just "movement". If the United States continue trying to solve too much (with an unpredictable Russian "partner") they might run out ideas.
The preferred path now should be a gathering of world leaders, including Russia, who could reaffirm the rule of law, pressuring Putin for "clarity" and outline a new Bretton Woods, taking into account countries which need to be heard before they are willing to acquiesce. States can also be Western tributaries rather than having to be allies. The president of the Russian Federation has to be made openly what he is in real terms, a lonely man in the world community.
Willingly or not, most countries were used to American leadership. Today the United States look often more like a blotter than a marker. This is the result of an "academic" presidency, coming after "imperial" presidencies. Humility is preferable to hubris as long as the body in repose can flex its muscle. Under the last Bush presidency there was too much testosterone. Now the Pax Americana feels like a bygone old black-and-white Hollywood production and we are stuck with mega brain dead productions like Noah & Co. One ends up having some sympathy for the French exception culturelle. This should not be. Let's remember there was a "Play it again, Sam".
American idealism, which was the foundation of political thought, worked as long as the leadership (albeit often rightly criticized) was rooted in beliefs, conceptual creativity, and technological and military might. The recent cut in US defense expenditure is yet again an another faux pas which might encourage others to rush to judgement...and miscalculation.
No comments:
Post a Comment