Remarque is mostly remembered for his novel "All Quiet on the Western Front." If he were writing today about the Eastern Front, this quintessential lucid writer might switch adjectives and go for "tentatively nefarious".
Actually the whole European situation might look almost surreal if it were not for the rollback of the post-Berlin Wall legacy. After the euphoria in the West, complacency sat in and in its aftermath the leaders lost their mettle. They failed to grasp the reality of a Russian Federation which clings to memory rather than being content to play second fiddle. The United States presented the Russians with kid toys and played cozy (the Clinton/Yeltsin duo) or paternalistic (the "reset button"). The Europeans went along with the enlargement of NATO and put paper tigers at the "friendly" borders. Their appetite for energy made them oblivious to what was happening in front of their eyes. The numerous snubs only awakened a Russian empire which was hidden from view after a century of occasional estrangement. One forgets too easily that the Russian front-- and no other--was the main actor in Nazi Germany's demise.
While the West slept, Russia under Putin regrouped. There are many reasons for this almost pathological redefinition of identity:
--Everybody knows that a void created will eventually be refilled. The West encouraged former Soviet republics to join the EU or NATO but followed up with half-baked military or other support, leaving an Eastern border porous and economically fragile.
--Western Europe did not pay due attention to its lethal dependency on Russian energy. Some of its political elite benefited from this Russian embrace which looks more like a death wish than a kiss of affection.
--The Bush and Obama administrations did not make enough time for Europe which is considered more like a page out of Vanity Fair rather than a chapter out of Clausewitz. As a result, the Europeans tended to be more isolationist than the Americans ever were. Contrary to Mitterrand, Mrs. Thatcher or Kohl they often chose leaders who deflected rather than reflected. Mrs. Merkel might be an exception but ambiguities remain.
--Putin was able to build a coalition of the "silent". A majority worldwide certainly disapproves of his "rape of Europe" but the silence remains deafening while the Americans have lost the goodwill which was abundant yesterday. Brazil, South Africa, India, Argentina, China, Israel (!), Middle Eastern clients (?) i.a. are keeping their distance.
--Russia can do a lot because there is little that the West can do. President Obama never cared to fulfill the promise of candidate Obama's Berlin speech. In the presidential debates he foresaw a personal network of amicable leaders but he has ended up in some empty room with an occasional generally disgruntled leader passing by.
--The tragic-comic fight between Republicans and Democrats is wasteful and leads to grotesque aberrations. The presidentials have started already and an overdose of mediocre, parochial medicine is available online. Remember how somebody as deservedly respected as Senator McCain chose Sarah Palin as running mate? That is what elections in the United States can lead to. True, she could see Russia from Alaska. This could come in handy today.
--The United States is in need of a statesman who can present a society model wherein less State creates more space for innovation, "enlightened" immigration, refocused foreign policy and military strategic parameters. Non-invasive corrections of a system which led to overspending and underestimations internally and externally are urgently required (read Burke).
--The EU and the US had better accelerate negotiations on the Trans-Atlantic Partnership and Trade and Investment Partnership (the same goes for the Asia Pact (TPP).
-The West lacks a "doctrine," a reference which is both a beacon for the participants and a deterrent for the "outlaws".
Ukraine should not become what it is not supposed to be, some casus belli or the first act of a long confrontation with Russia. Let us not be hypocritical. Europe was willing to come to an agreement with Yanucovych prior to his volte face. It should not play holier than what it is. Putin is not going away. Probably he is the one with the most staying power. He might even be "more sinned than sinner".
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