The Nile Delta which ends the river's laborious path through the desert is an oasis that creates a micro-climate which enriches and multiplies the Egyptian bread basket. The pool of blood in Cairo might likewise strengthen the will of the Muslim Brotherhood which has now plenty of martyrs who are fueled by hatred. The military onslaught may have created a division within Egypt which looks "fatal" in the foreseeable future. The Brotherhood missed a chance to obey by the rule of democracy, alienating large segments of the Egyptian society. It might find rehabilitation in the brutal repression unleashed against it.
The situation became oversimplified, reduced to the most "elementary" components of the confrontation. This was no longer a rational political debate wherein one might find a compromise between two opposing intellectual propositions. The situation degenerated in the rejection by the majority of an almost theocratic hidden agenda which collided with the priorities of the army, bourgeoisie and entrepreneurs who feared that Egypt was on the way of becoming a "failed state." President Morsi played (badly) Sphinx but he had his hands tied by his supporters. The army's "non coup in a coup," and the installation of a puppet civilian government could not placate the ire of the Islamists who felt that a democratic election was stolen in plain sight. Further moves by the military led to the Egyptian version of the Massacre de la Saint Barthelemy. . Cairo is a shell-shocked city while the provinces now have military rulers as de facto pro consuls. The future looks ominous and I doubt that a dialogue can be foreseen between a "politico-military-business" faction and a mostly underdog religious minority which will be tempted to avenge in some anti-Western, anti-pluralism frenzy.
Meanwhile, the onlookers look pathetic and the whole region risks becoming even more destabilized, with Syria in hell, Jordan on life-support, the Emirates fearing contagion, Iraq falling apart, Turkey upset, and the rest becoming a reserve for radical Islamists. The silence of Russia and China speaks for itself. The narrative in Washington is totally unconvincing. It was hard to imagine that the joint military manouvers between Egypt and the USA would proceed as planned. Congress might likewise reconsider the financial aid package to Egypt if there is no credible offer for reconciliation, apology and a multi-party system. Unfortunately there is no Egyptian Mandela in sight who could push an inclusive concept. The situation is surreal with two former presidents jailed, hospitals and funeral homes overflowing, a curfew and the Valley of the Dead fulfilling some dark prophecy.
It is hard for a Western to swallow the "Allah Akbar" screams but we should also be cognizant of former and current religious tensions (remember Ireland ) and bigotry (Franco's Spain yesterday, Putin's Russia today). Before trying to come to terms with a complex, often anachronistic mindset there is a need for compassion and some empathy for the wretched of Egypt who have been humiliated for too long and who will provide for a generation of radicals, if they are deprived of respect. The West has to push this imperative loudly, erga omnes. In the absence of a global creative policy or diplomacy there should at least be room for moral outrage and condemnation. The Egyptian military needs to be shown the way back to their barracks after having shown contrition. If their staying power overrules more civil society priorities and the rule of law, they are better left to their own devices rather than becoming the sole interlocutors. I am afraid that this Egyptian "twister" will be difficult to control. Laws of probability and mathematical chances make for a bad outcome.
The Arab chaos which resulted primary from the disreputable Iraq invasion allowed the formerly more geographically contained al-Qaeda to metastasize, spanning an arc from Yemen to Mali. So much for geo-political thinking. Drones kill people while simultaneously multiplying the number of adherents to the culture of death.
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