FAITES VOS JEUX

Enough about the disease, it is time to consider the treatment.  The diagnosis is not that simple though.  Presuming that Egypt is divided in two camps is an oversimplification. True, there are Islamists.   On the other side is the military, who for the time being have the support of a composite majority (for how long?)  Cracks are already appearing in this non-Islamist part of the population which is worried that the military might get "high" on their current status and reluctant to switch to a more pluralistic constitution and representation.  Indeed they appear to be more opportunistic than motivated by better governance. The economy is in shambles and nobody is coming forward with a "grand plan."   Egypt stands alone and the money which is provided by the Emirates or the Saudis does not replace a political regional and international relevance which is lost for an unforeseeable time. The Pharaoh state from Mubarak (watch my words...he might have some "come back") became a hybrid under Morsi, ending up being a pariah, an almost-failed state in the current turmoil.

There are mainly two dangers (besides the structural shortcomings that were always there) despite the largely subsidized foodstuff and the wealth of the few who lived in their gated communities.

The first obstacle is that Egypt stands alone in the region. Money is soft power. Hard power is absent. The army might as well blackmail the United States and turn elsewhere for support, reversing Sadat's strategic U-turn to America (and Israel).  The canal (remember Disraeli's "le canal SUEZ-CIDE") better not be for grabs! The Sinai has to be (ideally) monitored, internationally.

The second danger is Egypt's relative isolation in the region and in the world. Turkey condemns, Saudi Arabia applauds. The EU does what it does best:  talks. The Americans have lost most of their influence and find themselves in a quandary. One could argue that the US should not discontinue its aid package to the mostly Egyptian military.  If this were the case, conditions should have to be attached. If the military showed disregard for such concerns, the Americans might cut off aid. Otherwise they risk losing influence as well as the little moral credibility capital they still hold. The strategic partnership between Cairo and Washington is considered by both parties as a "win/win"situation. The long-term consequences of ending it might outweigh the moral high ground in the short term.  Also, imagine Israel stuck between Syria imploding and Egypt becoming ungovernable!?   Washington risks looking a 30-year investment, following in the footsteps of the Iranian meltdown!

It is becoming obvious that the situation needs an innovative therapy, after so many US leaders have been shown the door by the military. President Obama looks clueless (he is not the only one). If such a thing were still possible, the solution must come from the Arabs, first under the auspices of the UN and the Arab League, secondly with the support of the Quartet, when required. A new constitution, elections, return to civil rule,  better be decided upon in an accelerated fashion with the input of all (Islamists included).  Presidents Mubarak and Morsi should not be relegated to some Egyptian-style Guantanamo. The rule of law must be reinstated. Through all this, the West should help the democratic forces which existed and almost flourished during the last centuries under the Khedive and Kings Fouad and Farouk, until the Palace coup (again) which was stopped by the British. Western countries should be "low key" in this theatre of the absurd where they have more to lose than to gain. Both Islamists and supporters of the "non coup in the coup" find themselves in some anti-American unison. This goes for the West in general by the way, but the potential major losers are the Americans (and possibly Israel).  Iran and, to a lesser degree Turkey, are surprisingly discreet...so are cats when they see an opening.

The (half) Palestinian /Israeli "peace" talks continue, so it seems. The discretion might be as encouraging as it might become embarrassing.  Looking at Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, the Sinai, Macbeth's words come to mind: "Full of sound and fury."  Let us hope that this does not point to a foregone conclusion (Othello.III.3.426) but I fear the the noise will overtake the rumor.

The"Alexandria Quartet" belongs to the past, whatever the outcome of the present "killing streets."   Malesh!