The recent developments in Egypt show that besides the road, the sand can be slippery too.
This Act III of the Egyptian turmoil looks anything but final.
The "coup," which does not dare to say its name, became unavoidable, since the political twister risked undermining the fabric of Egypt's economy and its status in the region. Morsi has proven to have been a mostly unreliable, uninspiring president who became more a hostage of the Muslim Brotherhood than its leader. Nevertheless, he is a democratically elected head of state and the euphemisms that appear in various comments should face the reality rather than "spin."
The events in Cairo might further divide Egyptian society and consolidate existing socio-cultural fault lines. The Arab world looks equally divided and the whole region stands still, unable to come to terms with the contradictions that exist in its midst. The international community is equally paralyzed, at a loss to formulate a coherent analysis of the Egyptian developments.
One reality is of colossal importance. Not all Muslims buy into the radical big tent, as suggested by Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran or the Talibans. They want their lives back rather than going under in some theocratic culture of death.
Still a way must be found to try to bring together "all" parties involved and there should not be any form of ostracism or avert retaliation. Otherwise, the risk of a civil war or internal turmoil might become a reality wherein the military would have to intervene and to consolidate its control. The United States would come under pressure from Congress to freeze their generous financial aid to Egypt--to the military establishment mostly-- but doing so could end up alienating potential democrats as well.
There is not one single compass which might show the way out of this quagmire. There is also no figurehead who might rally opposite forces. Neither Amr Moussa or Mohamed ElBaradei have a power base which might appeal to an overlapping majority. The military as well are mostly an abstract lot without a Nasser-type figurehead who might push for democratic reforms, constitution and elections.
At the same time Syria continues to "rot" while Iran is trying to guess the intentions of its new president and Turkey worries that the Egyptian scenario might become a "precedent."
The rapid increase of regional unbalances makes it even harder for other powers, in the first place the United States, to come up with a reactive, helpful answer. In the short term there is little room for clarity and everybody hides behind sophisms, afraid to intervene while the patient is almost in cardiac arrest! Caution is probably wise but if there is no movement, passivity would become counter productive and lead to some sort of "backlash" in the street.
Something has to be done fast before opposites become structurally irreconcilable. The current situation needs to be abstracted, depersonalized (no counter productive anti-Morsi "purge") and an arc of Salut Public should receive a mandate for multiparty rule, democracy, and financial, economic and social urgency measures. The military should likewise set a deadline for a "return to normal" before the looming "non normal" becomes the rule.
Egypt in chaos represents a danger in the region. "Egypt reforming" would revive its role as power broker in the Arab world. I hope that this time the younger crowd who occupied Tahrir Square will be represented in any future government and decision making, which until now seem to have been a "bonus," reserved for the few who watched the events on TV. The people have gotten a voice yet again, they all deserve to be heard finally and to be part of tomorrow. The "killing streets" of today should not be allowed to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Egypt of Naguib Mahfouz and Ala'a Al Aswany deserves a better fate.
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