EGYPT'S THOUSAND AND ONE PROBLEMS

In Christopher Hitchens' words "Egypt is not a country that has an army, but an army that has a country."  With General Abdel Fattah Al Sisi at the helm, Hitchens' boutade became a self-fulfilling prophecy. The new interim-President Adly Mansour is a prop, while the general acts more and more as if he were the pharaonic lead in some Aida make-over.  In this (too) he resembles President Mubarak, whose whereabouts or trial remain equally off limits. The ousted President Morsi is equally incommunicado after this coup which is merchandised as a "non coup."

The short tenure of President Morsi was farcical and the power-grab by the Muslim Brotherhood led to the surge of a culture of martyrdom, religious zealotry and unreliability internally and abroad. The detention of Morsi without transparent rule of law and the killing of Islamic protesters overshadow the promise of a speedy return to elected rule. Sisi is a formidable personality but he looks increasingly authoritarian and confrontational. One shouldn't be naive though. The erosion of what remained of a civil society under Morsi was as much a coup "by stealth" as the military ouster of a democratically elected president was a coup by "force."

Meanwhile, Egypt is confronted with problems on all sides and in all sectors. Tourism is gone, finances are on life-support from Saudi Arabia and Qatar i.a. and insecurity and violence rule. If the military is willing to rely more on soft power, public opinion might still be won over in a structural mode. After all, the Muslim Brotherhood is supposedly supported by a quarter of Egyptians. A crackdown might increase the numbers and sympathy for a group that is adept at mobilizing the less attractive, radical, theocratic aspects of its creed.

Egypt is a major player both in the region and worldwide. It has sophisticated diplomats and a remarkable business network. Under Mubarak, Egypt was able to be a first-league player in world affairs. Unfortunately, this added value seldom reached the hearts and minds of a country wherein "enlightenment" was perceived as the realm of the privileged. The Sharm el-Sheikh and Luxor "Bantustans" for the affluent were almost off-limits for the "pious" Egyptians.  An oligarchy of Westernized entrepreneurs preferred to look elsewhere rather than try to bring about a more just redistribution of wealth inside. The radical Islamists got a free pass in compensating for the lack of proper education or health care. 

Egypt is emblematic for the contradictions of the "Arab Spring."  Elsewhere in the vicinity the unpredictable is overtaking the desirable:  Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan.  In Egypt, the Sinai is becoming an alarming flash point. The goings on in Turkey, and Iran under a new more moderate (?) president, remain largely ambiguous.  Egypt has to become the "new normal." It has a political, economic, and cultural data-bank like no other country in the region. The military should plug into this memory in order to facilitate a return to democracy, and a multiparty system wherein there is also room for the Brotherhood.  General al-Sisi might prefer to be remembered for ushering in a transition to multiparty democracy and a return of Egypt to the world stage rather than for having ushered out his former boss.  Meanwhile, the United States and the EU better encourage the good rather than press for the (for now) unattainable better.

THE MIDDLE EAST PEACE PROCESS

Here we go again.  The Secretary of State John Kerry achieved the unthinkable, bringing Palestinians and Israelis to the negotiating (?) table.  It remains to be seen if these agreed-upon talks will reach the critical level of Final Status "give and take."

The turmoil in the Middle East has created a shift in priorities. It looks sometimes as if the Israelo-Palestinian impasse has been relegated to a second tier. The Arabs are more concerned with their own meltdowns than with the former core issue of the peace process. The encouragement of the Arab League given to Kerry signals more a lack of short-term interest and a sense of deja vu and fatalism.  Israel got some breathing space after the Arab Spring turned into a nightmare.  Abbas looks like a very lonely man surrounded by internal division and regional indifference. The Arabs are too happy to see the Americans getting involved again in this endless, hopeless saga.

It is hard to fathom how the fundamental hurdles (Jerusalem, refugees, Israeli settlements, border corrections and land swaps) could suddenly be solved through a mutual "give and take" under American tutelage. If there were to appear a ray of hope, the former Quartet might have to be involved.

The American chief negotiator, Ambassador Martin Indyk is obviously ideally suited to steer those talks, given his long diplomatic experience in the region and his personal knowledge of the actors and the hurdles.  He is trusted by all sides.  I know that he has also been criticized for being closer to the Israeli point of view, but many of his former actions can equally be seen as favoring the Palestinians.

The main problem is one of asymmetry.  Netanyahu feels more secure while Abbas looks diminished.  Besides, the Israeli priority is "security," which curtails a lot of what might be considered to meet Palestinian demands. There are more taboos than windows of opportunity. In reality, the parameters for a Final Status outcome are known by all.  Nevertheless, they require compromises that no side has been able to swallow.  For the Palestinians, the situation is dire because most movements towards the Israeli side which could be considered would equal political suicide under the current circumstances.

The American Secretary of State deserves praise after his marathon Kissinger-style shuttle diplomacy.  The United States is attempting a "comeback" by way of the backdoor of the Peace Process in a region adrift and with the support of the mostly a Sunni establishment. 

Meanwhile, Washington has chosen reason over indignation regarding Syria. I hope the Sinai looming disaster will be closely checked, together with the Egyptians. Lately the minefield over there is growing, rather than being cleared. The brush fire in the Middle East is in need of intervention, on condition that the partition between the less undesirable and the objectionable is not blurred.

FILIP REX

Koning Albert II heeft op een opvallende sobere manier zijn verantwoordelijkheden overgedragen aan zijn zoon.
Koning Filip en konigin Mathilde nemen een moeilijke taak over. Na de welgemeende emoties van deze 21 juli komen een aantal "reality checks" aansteven , die het nieuwe staatsfoofd zal moeten beheren samen met een politieke klasse die altijd onberekenbaar blijft. Nu heerste er een consensueel klimaat tussen Albert II en regering.  Dit is te danken aan de "savoir faire " van de afgetreden koning , die met veel geduld en ook "Coburg" overtuiging een klimaat van onderlinge verstandhouding heeft kunnen waar maken.
Dit is niet onmiddellijk overdraagbaar. De nieuwe koning zal terecht een eigen analyse willen maken van de toch moeilijke politieke Belgische situatie. De deelstaten zullen terecht de letter en de geest van de laatste staatshervorming willen invullen. De  republikeinse druk , in sommige vooral Vlaamse kringen , zal niet afnemen. De jongste dagen hebben aangetoond dat de monarchie trouwens op meer spontane steun geniet in het Zuiden dan in het Noorden. Dat moet worden  rechtgetrokken. De nieuwe kabinetschef van koning Filip is daar de ideale persoonlijkheid voor.
Een gelegenheid homt open te staan voor  het Paleis om een verjongingskuur  om te zetten in een nieuwe stijl die afgestemd is op de jongste evoluties in binnen- en buitenland. Aanwezigheid, transparentie en een meer uitgesproken contact met de jonge generatie en de "nieuwe" Belgen moeten op korte tijd worden aangezwengeld.
De nieuwe Koning en Koningin verdienen ondertussen alle steun en loyauteit. Het Belgisch "experiment" kan nog slagen, op voorwaarde dat een nieuwe cultuur voorbijgesteefde gedragspatronen gaat  veranderen. Het is normaal dat velen met wat heimwee terugblikken naar de oudere tijden en een klassieke staatsinrichting. Volharden in nostalgie kan alleen maar een Belgische vernieuwing moeilijker maken.
Het nieuw Belgisch vorstenpaar heeft veel troeven om ook in Europa en elders het imago van  Federaal Belgie representatief te maken voor de creativiteit die in dit land leeft o.m. wetenschappelijk onderzoek, kunst, mode enzv. Koning Albert en Koningin Paola hebben de moderniteit beginnen beschouwen als een aanwinst. Hun gebaren  worden liefst vermenigvuldigd .

De dialoog met de deelstaten moet op een identieke manier op een meer ontspannen manier uitgroeien tot reflex en routine .
Koning Filip schijnt dit te hebben begrepen. Ondertussen kunnen de Belgen fier zijn op de manier waarop de troonswissel is kunnen worden doorgevoerd , met klasse en ook plaats voor ontroering. De Federale Eerste Minister verdient de erkentelijkheid van allen om bescheiden en efficient te zijn opgetreden.
Leve de Koning ! Leve de Koningin !

PRESIDENT OBAMA ON RACE

The aftermath of the Trayvon Martin case came as no surprise.  The comments pro and contra continued the whole week at nauseam.

The President intervened on July 19.  In few words he addressed the "race issue" head on.
He broke with his usual "reserve" and spoke in the most personal terms maybe since he became president.  After Newtown and Boston he was the eloquent spokesman for the psyche of a country in shock.  Here he laid bare his own hurt as a black man in America.

His words were not programmed, his personal emotion was for all to see.  Suddenly the man of yesterday's "yes we can" was returned to a public and press who felt that the moment suddenly was one of existential personal catharsis.  Gone were the teleprompter or the politics. The America of the Gettysburg Address and Martin Luther King raised again to the occasion.
Obama avoided all the pitfalls and wisely refrained from steering his narrative in the treacherous corners of criticism, polarizing or divisive demagogy.

His personal experience with humiliation and profiling was the message.  His "if..." lifted an almost sordid case of structural deficiencies both ways to the noble level of hurts and pain. Facing the eye of the storm and assuming his own memory of often perverse disguised racial collision he may have alienated some, rallied others.

History was made, whatever the tidal aftershocks will be. 

THE ELEPHANT IN THE COURTROOM

The George Zimmerman trial was almost surreal. The circumstances surrounding the death of Trayvon Martin remain murky, after having been manipulated shamefully by both defense and prosecution. Technically the trial was nevertheless orderly and the outcome came as no surprise, given the shaky evidence and the "performance" of some of the witnesses called upon by the prosecution.

The death of Trayvon Martin remains a tragedy. The verdict will not lift the shadows that hang over George Zimmerman who will carry the mark of Cain for the rest of his life. Both the victim and the survivor lost at the end. One lost his life, the other lost his future.  In the end there was an acquittal with no survivors.

The trial was essentially faulty in philosophical terms because it ignored the elephant in the courtroom:  race.  The underlying problems relate to prejudice, racial profiling, fetish (the "hood" considered as a cause for alarm bells to go off ), and a travesty of facts. Trayvon's sad end cannot hide the brutal fact that 90% of black murder victims are killed by other blacks. Zimmerman's narrative remains open for interpretation, but the jury came to a conclusion which makes common sense given the parameters which were imposed upon their deliberations.

As was foreseen, the reactions in the media and in public opinion are emotional and often off track.  Objectivity is almost absent from the general conversation. Agreement and criticism should adhere to the proven facts at hand rather than being taken hostage of emotions which are understandable but misguided. The former will not bring Martin back and they end up making Zimmerman, who was acquitted, a fugitive for life. 

In reality racism should be on trial. This vicious undercurrent continues to plague the American society (it operates elsewhere as well) which too often mistakes lofty goals and legislation for change.  I don't know if Zimmerman had a racist "agenda" and I personally doubt it. The over- reactive self-defense laws in Florida are more to blame than any other cause. The President was right to point the finger at the "candy gun shops" which flourish all over, mostly in the impoverished South which suffers from a total breakdown of education and social structures primary among minorities. A geographical crime map should not overshadow the fact that the epidemic is spreading. Chicago is becoming a killing-field and Newtown is part of the affluent North-East corner.

I hope that this sad ending for all will not lead to generalizations which end up creating empty, often demagogic slogans.  By the way, if Zimmerman would have been found guilty by the jury, my judgement would have been the same. The criminal justice system works and proven malfunctions are the exception, not the rule. One should not defend or denigrate the system given that one is satisfied with the outcome or not.  Justice is not a vendetta and we will never know Trayvon Martin's story.  By leaving it to rest will only honor his memory.

THE WHITE HOUSE? NOBODY HOME...

The world is "full of sound and fury", but the American administration seems not to be engaged.  Both internally and externally one has an almost eerie impression of disconnect.  It is one thing to acknowledge that problems might look too difficult to resolve in the short term, but it is another to see an administration appearing clueless, with a hand of losing cards in the global bridge game.

There is no need to attempt to summarize the many situations which are in need of therapy.  Everybody is familiar with the sight of this armada of unsolved problems which are surrounding the White House, which appears increasingly to be on the defensive, if not logged-out. The conceptual vacuum and the inappropriate signals given are starting to create a malaise which is aggravated by numerous flash points (IRS, various over-zealous wiretapping of US and foreign citizens and interests, the Edward Snowden spin-off, Obamacare in the ER, immigration, not to mention the many international disturbances which might derail an existing fragile equilibrium in many parts of the world.)

The Obama nouveau of Berlin, Oslo, and Cairo is no longer. The voice of the United States does not carry its former gravitas, which acted sometimes for the worse, often for the better.  Absence does not lead to fondness. It corroborates a sense of disengagement. The President appears often to have become "blase", aloof almost, preferring "texting" thoughts rather than submitting them to a reality check. Personally I appreciated the President, although Mrs. Clinton was my first choice.  I still like the person but I wish the creative, agile mind of earlier days would dislodge the seemingly passive, almost fatalistic strain of today. True, Congress prefers trench warfare over compromise but the "pique" of members of Congress over the President's demeanour is real.  George W. Bush created a bad mood among most allies and appreciation among foes. President Obama went from pop star cult to an almost indifferent "nonchalance," unconvincing while "Rome is set on fire."

Washington is in need of a script, the more so since Europe plays mostly "dummy," while China and Russia are consolidating the acquired advantages in the absence of a credible new American strategic
road map or Realpolitik Kissinger-style (Marshall Plan, Truman Doctrine, George Kennan's "Containment", or the ideas of  Neo-cons like William Kristol or Richard Perle--there is no need to agree with them, but there should be an open mind recognizing the intellectual coherence thereof.)   Sometimes this administration looks like a remake of President Carter's journey, which met its inglorious end in Iran's desert. What an omen!

Obama might still find it in him to rebound and find a "coda" for his "yes, we can."  He needs to engage both Congress and the people inside and abroad.  He has to confront, leave the path of distance which only adds validity to the "American decline" school of thought.

EGYPT IN THE EYE OF THE STORM...ACT III

The recent developments in Egypt show that besides the road, the sand can be slippery too.
This Act III of the Egyptian turmoil looks anything but final.

The "coup," which does not dare to say its name, became unavoidable, since the political twister risked undermining the fabric of Egypt's economy and its status in the region. Morsi has proven to have been a mostly unreliable, uninspiring president who became more a hostage of the Muslim Brotherhood than its leader.  Nevertheless, he is a democratically elected head of state and the euphemisms that appear in various comments should face the reality rather than "spin."

The events in Cairo might further divide Egyptian society and consolidate existing socio-cultural fault lines. The Arab world looks equally divided and the whole region stands still, unable to come to terms with the contradictions that exist in its midst. The international community is equally paralyzed, at a loss to formulate a coherent analysis of the Egyptian developments.
One reality is of colossal importance.  Not all Muslims buy into the radical big tent, as suggested by Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran or the Talibans.  They want their lives back rather than going under in some theocratic culture of death.

Still a way must be found to try to bring together "all" parties involved and there should not be any form of ostracism or avert retaliation.  Otherwise, the risk of a civil war or internal turmoil might become a reality wherein the military would have to intervene and to consolidate its control. The United States would come under pressure from Congress to freeze their generous financial aid to Egypt--to the military establishment mostly-- but doing so could end up alienating potential democrats as well.

There is not one single compass which might show the way out of this quagmire. There is also no figurehead who might rally opposite forces.  Neither Amr Moussa or Mohamed ElBaradei have a power base which might appeal to an overlapping majority.  The military as well are mostly an abstract lot without a Nasser-type figurehead who might push for democratic reforms, constitution and elections. 

At the same time Syria continues to "rot" while Iran is trying to guess the intentions of its new president and Turkey worries that the Egyptian scenario might become a "precedent."
The rapid increase of regional unbalances makes it even harder for other powers, in the first place the United States, to come up with a reactive, helpful answer.  In the short term there is little room for clarity and everybody hides behind sophisms, afraid to intervene while the patient is almost in cardiac arrest!  Caution is probably wise but if there is no movement, passivity would become counter productive and lead to some sort of "backlash" in the street.

Something has to be done fast before opposites become structurally irreconcilable. The current situation needs to be abstracted, depersonalized (no counter productive anti-Morsi "purge") and an arc of Salut Public should receive a mandate for multiparty rule, democracy, and financial, economic and social urgency measures. The military should likewise set a deadline for a "return to normal" before the looming "non normal" becomes the rule.

Egypt in chaos represents a danger in the region. "Egypt reforming" would revive its role as power broker in the Arab world.  I hope that this time the younger crowd who occupied Tahrir Square will be represented in any future government and decision making, which until now seem to have been a "bonus," reserved for the few who watched the events on TV. The people have gotten a voice yet again, they all deserve to be heard finally and to be part of tomorrow.  The "killing streets" of today should not be allowed to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  The Egypt of Naguib Mahfouz and Ala'a Al Aswany deserves a better fate.

EXIT ALBERT II

L'abdication du Roi des Belges, Albert II , etait attendue.
Il sera regrette.
Son regne a ete difficile. Le pays lui doit beaucoup. Il est trop tot pour suggerer un bilan mais ce moment historique se prete a une reflexion a plus long terme.
Ce Roi approchable, proche, a pu compter sur l'ecoute et l'appreciation majoritaires dans le pays. Sans doute assistera-t-on a la montee d'un sentiment de culpabilite apres que l'addition des evenements et des crises qui ont marque son regne sera presentee.
J'ai eu l'honneur de servir le Roi lorsque j'etais son Ambassadeur en Chine. J'ai eu l'occasion d'apprecier son humanite et son professionalisme. J'ai egalement capte  des propos plus personnels sur l'etat des choses en Belgique qui l'inquietait profondement.
Ce Roi "accidentel" est devenu un Roi "indispensable". A travers tout, il a pu compter sur l'appui de la Reine, discret mais tenace.
Il convient maintenant d'agir pour que le Prince Philippe puisse acceder au trone dans des conditions psychologiques optimales. Le futur Roi n'aura pas la tache facile, d'autant plus que l'annee prochaine sera cruciale pour l'avenir du pays. L' identite de la Belgique sera redefinie, quelles que soient les developpements politiques imprevisibles. Meme si le role du Souverain risque d'etre revise son influence demeurera, pour autant qu'il puisse compter sur un Entourage eclaire et sur une classe politique loyale. Nul doute que la Princesse Mathilde est dans ces condtions un element de confiance et, disons-le , d'elegance parfaite.
La Belgique restera toujours un pays imparfait. Il etait plus facile de la creer que d'envisager l'estocade
 consideree dans certains milieux. Qu'on le veuille ou non, et independamment des preferences ou des jugements, la Belgique est aussi faite de l'addition de l'Union Europeenne,de l'OTAN et de lobbies globalises, dont les interets representent une valeur ajoutee considerable. En fait la gestion du pays a aussi besoin d'un aval international.
Albert II merite la gratitude de ses sujets. La traduction la plus convainquante de ce sentiment sera le soutien apporte a son successeur.
Cette abdication nous prive aussi d'un capital d'emotion dont le Roi Albert II a ete le depositaire reconnu.

LEAKERGATE

The President's Africa trip is lugubrious and off-target.  He should take his cue from the Chinese who know how to avoid "schmaltz."  Meanwhile, the house is on fire.  Since the bungled Benghazi tragedy, we seem to have entered into a serial downturn of Obama's second term. The IRS scandal, the paranoid tapping of journalists, and lately Edward J. Snowden's intelligence leaks have created a fury in the United States and among allies who feel, rightly so, fooled, after discovering they had been treated all those years as targets rather than friends. Will the drone rage equally no longer make a difference between foe or friend?

Meanwhile the Russians and Chinese look as if they were almost sorry for America's clumsiness, while Egypt (remember the Arab Spring, popular with the administration?) might join the ranks of "failed" states.  Upon his return the President will certainly make a sterling speech but he starts to remind me of the priest who is overtaken by sermon,  so that he no longer sees that the church is empty. Far be it from me not to recognize Obama's intellectual qualities or to ignore the hope and the vision he represented.  After the Bush years he was like a breath of fresh air, but  now we want to open the windows again and let this stale accumulated political stench out.
We erred because we mistook the "persona" for the message. Today it becomes clear that this administration has no global policy doctrine, not even a bad one, as was the case with President George W. Bush. There is not even a touch of enlightened empirical grasp Clinton-style. We watch how "disperse" overtook "associate", an accumulative approach which might as well kill the patient. There is no doctrine, only an other red line, while "the action is not suited to the "word."

In this messy situation a lot is at stake between allies. Not since the Iraq war has the political goodwill between allies been so frail. All this happens at a time when the EU and the United States are actively considering a free trade agreement which, if agreed upon, would be a game changer in the worldwide balance of power.  Mr. Snowden and the N.S.A. (National Security Agency) might as well have given the French their cherished exception culturelle "on the house." The President's desultory first comments in Africa show an almost pathological lack of empathy with the furor wildfire which is igniting the European capitals.

The American public looks amorphous, the Republicans prefer for now to look elsewhere and meanwhile the Trayvon Martin sad "soap" further anesthetizes a public opinion left to its own devices, adrift.