For two years we have been "voyeurs" of a multiple tragedy in Syria with no end in sight. The Americans--and most of the other "interested" parties--are clueless about sorting the good from the bad. The Europeans might repeat the Bosnian scenario, arming their respective "clients," while the Chinese will hide behind Lao Tzu and the principle of non-intervention (wu wei). The Russians do not want to lose their foothold in the Middle East, even if it comes at a price, aligning themselves with the likes of Hezbollah and Iran. Moscow's arms deliveries are a shot in Assad's arm and one can rightly ask what Israel or the United States got from their recent talks with the Russians. So much for the "reset."
The Syrian catastrophe can no longer be confined. Jordan, Israel, Turkey and Lebanon are catching the flu. Assad, contrary to earlier predictions, cannot be ignored. Only some uprising or military coup could dislodge him. The United States is rightly baffled, looking into a strategic abyss. Any hard intervention could lead to a dangerous regional escalation while a selective arming of some rebels might well lead to a new bolder Russian response, not to mention Iran's "Heidrich," Hassan Nasrallah, whose belligerent talk shouldn't be taken lightly.
Washington and Moscow have agreed to convene a peace conference in Geneva. Such an undertaking might be more difficult than the infamous Paris peace conference about Vietnam, where more time was spent on the format of the table than about parts of Southeast Asia that were burning. The Middle East is in flames as well, and amid the rubble Assad can boost on his new missile defenses and, if pressed, on his stockpiles of chemical weapons. The global diplomatic vacuum is Russia's opportunity for a comeback, since President Sadat expelled them from Egypt. The Americans will be under pressure to increase arms deliveries to the so called moderate Free Syrian Army. Meanwhile, the White House was obliged to make an embarrassing U-turn, letting Assad in, after having stated that his departure was a precondition for talks. I concur with the school of thought which ascertained that Assad had to be part of any diplomatic solution (if such an outcome is still feasible.)
After all, Ambassador Holbrooke had to swallow Milosevic as well. Likewise, Mugabe or Omar al-Bashir are not made for the weak at heart, even when The Hague waits for them...in vain. America must remain active if it does not want to be forced out of the game or have to call 911 and end up being forced to support the French or the British, who are so credulous to claim to be able to differentiate the opposite camps who fight each other under Allah's mantle or under some tribal or terrorist umbrella. The West has a humanitarian responsibility first and in doing so it can alleviate the burden on Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. The latter must be moored in the Western hemisphere, sooner rather than later. The latest unrest could get out of hand and Erdogan should not have to follow the path of Mubarak. Israel wisely abstains from intervening openly.
Washington should build a coalition (different from the former CENTO) guaranteeing that the Gulf States, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia could act as stakeholders of regional stability and be supportive of the outlines of a peace process blueprint that was outlined by the Arab League. In the long run it is not totally Utopian to imagine that such an initiative might later include Pakistan and Afghanistan. Qatar has to stop playing double agent. The Talibans cannot be ignored. The United States still has the joker, but for how long? China and Russia are closely watching and are all too ready to fill an eventual void. This is made easier since the Arabs have no qualms to exchange their Koran for a stadium. Africa and South America already regurgitate hospitals, roads and bridges "made in China." The American infrastructure is ready for the rust belt and its technological know-how, second to none, is under cyber attack from mostly the Chinese PLA. Meanwhile, the Chinese president enjoys happy hour with President Obama in, of all places, the Annenberg estate. Isn't that ironic?
No comments:
Post a Comment