Monday, January 21, 2013

PRESIDENT OBAMA'S SECOND TERM

America is on its best when celebrating itself. Walt Whitman comes to mind. One is almost blinded by a pageantry that, unlike the European counterpart for instance, is made to unite rather than to impress.

The President was extraordinary in his taking the oath, as most of his predecessors were (for an instant) but his incantation lingers, like JFK's (albeit in form rather than content). He seems to thrive in this role of political scientist-in-chief, while being more known for aloofness than proximity.  He has a knack to stand, speak, break out when called upon and become Churchillean almost in a mix of aggression, futurism and conciliatory accents. 

This inauguration was unlike most.  It was high on slick symbolism, verging on demagoguery, and very transparent on purpose.  Actually it was more a declaration of war against a few, than an embrace of most. The tone and drama worked as an anesthetic but I bet the comments will follow and some might be clairvoyant. The President outlined priorities which do not allow room for doubt or interpretation. His program is progressive and does not leave space for compromise or alternatives. His words were directed directly at the people (mentioned ad nauseam) over the head of Congress.  He had no words for the Republicans, other than an undercurrent of spite. The looming fights over the deficit, spending, taxes were ignored, or better, delocalized to the public opinion. This President knows that the electorate spews Congress--Democrats and Republicans alike--and he proposes to bypass it whenever he can.

All this is well and good, but if urbi might take it, the orbi is waiting for answers with regard to problems that need leadership from the first nation on earth. The tension between China and Japan over the Senkaku islands might look parochial from afar, but poses potentially strategic dilemmas seen close.  Equally, the South China Sea is being considered by Beijing like a mare nostrum, with no regard to the claims of the Philippines, Vietnam and Co. The Arab Spring has become a nightmare and the Middle East's "ticking clock."  Putin's Russia is no longer the "cute" one of Medvedev.  North Korea and Iran are de facto rogue states which tango with the terrorists.  Al Qaeda has undergone a multiple mutation, rendering any mention of some remake of "Mission Accomplished" absurd.  A free-trade agreement between America and the European Union is a must if the West wants to remain competitive in what was mistakenly called "the end of history."  A new history is making headway. The "rogue" is overtaking the "normal," as cyber warfare and technological know-how come into the hands of the marginal non-state operators.

The world is indeed becoming a "multiple."  It demands a return to the diplomatic principle of "balance of power."  I realize that this might sound retro to some, but the fact remains that when you cannot do it alone you had better join the like-minded rather than loose for lack of critical mass. The "pivot" towards Asia is smart but the revitalization of an Atlantic block is equally indispensable in such matters as strategy, economy, shared values, climate change, and the fight against terrorism in all forms, be it cargo, infiltration, intellectual property, freedom of trade (sea routes), chemical weapons , trade and proliferation of WMD.

I fully realize that an inaugural address might not be the ideal forum to dwell on issues which pertain to micro-diplomatic management.  In my opinion the President's audience was not just a conscription of unconditional enthusiasts. Tehran, Jerusalem, Brussels, Tokyo, Beijing, Canberra, Paris, Bamako, Cairo--to mention a few--were listening too, and must feel left in the dark with regard to future intentions. So do the terrorists. Not that they deserve to be enlightened, but they need to be warned in clear terms about what might await them if they continue on their heinous path.

Obviously a ceremony like the one we watched is not the right place to tackle worldwide problems but if one is president of the United States of America, one must also consider that that his words will echo over the Mall and have a ripple effect world wide. The convinced were reassured. The curious however are left with their queries. The State of the Union might bring some clearer answers which are needed in a world which appears to be imploding from Caracas to Bamako, from the West Bank to the nuke gangs in the Caucasus. We might end up considering Pyongyang more desirable than the faceless hordes which are multiplying worldwide, lately in Mali.  President Obama may choose to be aloof intra muros , but he has to engage outside, be it by choosing to ignore--advisable in many situations--or by taking a stand in non-ambiguous terms.  He will have a busy four years!

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