THE LUMP OF SUGAR IN THE TEA CUP

We are supposed to get accustomed to a tailored worldview wherein the remnants of post-World War II coexist with a number of ad hoc "avatars," which are supposed to represent new regional or other specific interests.  A third category of non-state actors and the mestastizing Al-Qaeda further complicate any rational overview.  This shortened summary is totally misleading. The former great powers cling to the leftovers of a system which is actually still working (UN Security Council and specialized UN organisations, the World Bank and the IMF) . Outsiders  prefer to be become part of the Institutional architecture (Security Council) they dispize rather than trying unsuccessfully to wipe it out, ending up ingloriously outsmarted and devoid of alternatives, which are by the way beyond the reach of their expertise.

The "others," inter alia the BRICS , the OAU or the Arab League, lack cohesion and are more preoccupied undermining or exploiting each other, than formulating a comprehensive model for cooperation. Their impact remains marginal, if not non-existent. This being said, they can do a lot of harm by diverting the potentially positive to the structurally negative. On most issues, self-interest undermines common determination.  Hence it becomes urgent for like-minded countries (to a point) to accelerate the negotiations which could lead to the TPP (Transpacific partnership) and a free-trade agreement between the EU and the USA. China could join the TPP by the way, because economy and trade are becoming strategically more important than any other alternative and China shouldn't be ostracized.  Besides, this might contribute to lower or normalize China's ambitions in the South and East China Seas. After all, Beijing has agreed to join the US-hosted RIMPAC next year, the most ambitious annual international maritime exercise. Trade needs freedom of navigation!

I know that the Chinese Document 9 regarding the "seven perils" of Western ideas does not bode that well for the future.   In the end, interdependence will beat divergence, and restraint in American foreign policy will beat isolationism.  I am the first to lament the bygones from the good old Wilsonian, Atlantic or Kissinger brushstrokes, but few admit that the size of the canvass hasn't grown, while the group of painters has increased disproportionately.  At the same time, the quality of political science has taken a nose-dive.  The "old" post Berlin Wall order is under siege, conscious of the traps (as Putin lays them out so well), which are becoming "minefields" (but may come back to haunt him). China, for its part, had better control its nerves because those "anodyne" island disputes with the likes of Japan or the Philippines or Vietnam might easily get out of hand. In this category of "melodramatic" scenarios the role and responsibility of the United States remain unique. Only Washington can talk to all and has both the soft-power to induce and the hard-power to deter. Last, but not least, the fight against terrorism will be a stronger bond than any pact or agreement and could very well warm up current chilly relations.

It doesn't sound fair maybe, but the fact is that the Americans (rightly so) no longer consider the Middle East an imminent strategic imperative.  Europe, for its part, is considered as a Wodehouse nice uncle, whom you consult more out of courtesy than for any necessity other than commerce. Asia is the "Thing" and one can rightly ask the question why there is still so much travel in the sand and too little on the Silk Road. The cynics might argue that there is haste to get rid of the inconvenience (Middle East) so that there may be more room for the imperative (Asia).  The United States had better remain focused!

HISTOIRE BELGE

Koen Geens, le tres intelligent ministre des finances, a suggere qu'a l'avenir le poste de  premier minitre en Belgique soit reserve a une personnalite Flamande. A priori je n'ai rien contre. On pourrait d'ailleurs avancer que le principe de majorite democtratique soutient pareille suggestion.

Il faut cependant se garder,me semble-t-il, de legiferer ou de vouloir codifier ce principe. Il entrera d'autant plus facilement dans les moeurs politiques s'il reste sotto voce. En attendant , l'actuel Premier Ministre accomplit un parcours sans faute qui risque de le reconduire plutot que de le demettre.

2014 sera une annee difficile, qui mettra  les nerfs a l'epreuve .Le sens de l'Etat et les finances se trouveront sous haute surveeillance. Le roi Philippe a reussi son entree,  mais les elections risquent d'etre un baptheme du feu redoutable. La formation "normale" d'un gouvernement appartient desormais au domaine du possible, personne n'ayant envie de revenir aux temps passe des blagues belges. Les choses vont mieux, la reforme de l'Etat est devenue une realite et l'opinion publique impose a ses gouvernants  des problemes plus immediats : immigration,chomage des jeunes, environnement, recherche, infrastructure... Les themes uses chers aux inconditionnels provinciaux du Nord et du Sud font moins recette.

Le pays a besoin de reaffirmation, sans quoi il risque de devenir a jamais une "station service EU" sans identite. L'effet Bilbao ou le Rijksmuseum renove font envie mais rien ne bouge en Belgique, si ce n'est un nouveau sous-classement dans le Moody's culturel.

Le P.M Elio De Rupo est un rassembleur credible et il serait sage de ne pas interrompre une trajectoire positive. L'idee de Koen Geens doit aller de soi, devenir spontanee par voie d' induction pour qu'elle  puisse passer sans heurts ou egos meurtris. Le "savoir faire" belge est rarement "classe" mais , mine de rien, il a peu a envier a Macchiavel.

ALBERT CAMUS

Albert Camus suddenly intrudes again into our dour lives today. We rediscover that Meursault is our contemporary, that Sisyphus never gave up and that Caligula is more than the sum of his aberrations.  The chain-smoking womanizer, the Hamlet-like philosopher "observing" the Algerian War comes closer to us as the time passes.

His Sartre nemesis on the other hand starts to look more Manichean, scripted (contrary to his extraordinary and insufferable companion Simone de Beauvoir.)  Still, both men shared in the belief that love is a multiple which dies off if it fails to mix permanence (friendship) with interlude (seduction.)  The former dies when it is not impregnated by the latter.  Paradoxically, Camus looks more the part of the existential loser while Sartre comes over as the rational mathematician. Both were sex-obsessed, but that is forgetting that for most French sex is a way to be polite rather than to enjoy.  The French savoir faire is more a savoir plaire, more seduction (selfish) than genuine interest (altruism.)

The beach walk in "The Stranger" can only be French (coming from an Algerian.)  The nonchalance of the deed is a form of elegance, applied to murder.  Maybe only Mozart was able to bring betrayal closer to the sublime. We know that the best well-meant feelings don't necessarily make great art.  Camus often preferred to forego current times.  He ignored slogans or abbreviations and looked dispassionately at the ultimate inexplicable contradictions, both in himself and around him.  He is so close because he prefers to maintain his impressionistic distance.  Satie might be his most fitting musical alter ego.

This extraordinary split Frenchman made me love an idea of France, the other side of the coin of Grandes Ecoles and Academies.  He is Jedermann, he wouldn't feel at home in the Pantheon. He rather would share a smoke and a chat bien arrose with whoever happened to be at the Zinc.

THE FED AND THE REST

The Fed's outgoing chairman Ben Bernanke announced yesterday that the Federal Reserve would gradually pull back the stimulus policy, unless future developments would warrant a U-turn. Assurances were also given that interest rates would stay low after the bond-buying ends. Wall Street liked what it heard and the Dow Jones gained 300 points.  Obviously, the Fed's reading of the signs of improving growth had an immediate ripple effect (mostly in Asia). 

Investors who dislike uncertainties cheered and Bernanke leaves with well-deserved laurels, after the cataclysms of Bear Stearns and AIG,  rescued by the Fed in ways that were unorthodox. "Quantitative Easing" was also set in place.  The enacted Dodd/Frank act is an attempt to correct former transgressions.  It increased transparency at the Fed while maintaining independence of monetary policy. The act is supposed to further the stability, transparency and accountability of the financial system. It ends the former "too big to fail" mantra and protects taxpayers by ending bailouts. The recently adopted Volcker Rule prohibits an insured depository institution from engaging in proprietary trading or sponsoring a hedge fund or private equity fund. A firewall was set in place.

All this happened while Europe seemed shackled in austerity measures which were imposed from higher up and created a populist uproar, which still survives.  EU politicians did come up with a hybrid "Single Resolution Mechanism" and the creation of a "Banking Regulator," a set of measures too complex to convince. The EU stumbles from compromise to compromise with blurred demarcation lines between politics and global intervention and a myriad of decision-makers who stand in the way of efficiency.  For awhile the three central bankers at the Fed, the ECB and London were able to work together.  Now this looks suddenly more difficult.

Britain has recovered and follows the American model.  For now the EU might as well delete the words "growth" and "employment" in its dictionary.  The United States seems to be heading for a slow but steady recovery (unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates, energy independence, R and D boom, housing market up.)  The EU's problem is political and rooted in its heartland where inequality rules. Some decisions are considered as more imposed by necessity than by choice. Mario Draghi, the brilliant ECB'c chief lacks the room for manoeuvre that his American and (new) British counterparts have.

China is becoming a major player. The Renminbi, the "dim sum bonds" (traded in Hong Kong but denominated in RMB), and last but not least, the "sea turtles" (Chinese returning after US education) are dethroning the euro. The Chinese currency might as well choose London as a hub rather than anywhere else. China is a good learner.  London and the United States are the motors behind the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.  The United States should likewise accelerate a trade deal with its Asian partners. 

Diplomacy today evolves in  large part around free trade. The  quarrels in the East and South China Seas are more than just  about ego and natural ressources. They highlight the mostly categorical imperative of freedom of navigation, which is copming under threat, and which equals trade!  China's blue water ambitions are a larger menace than its "ostentatious" strives elsewhere!  Xi Jinping knows where his interests lie!  The new Fed Chairperson, Janet Yelen  - and the Obama administration as a whole-  better get used to "navigating" both economic crisis and Chinese treacherous waters.

THE WORLD IS A PUZZLE IN NEED OF SOLVING.

We were promised a grand American finale, the "end of history," but Fukuyama's projection fell victim to numerous mini-strokes which have left the world body weakened to the core.  In Europe the EU is considering a half-baked banking union, which is better than none but may fail yet again to convince the Euro-skeptics. Besides, the Russian bear has awakened for good. The Ukraine crisis is even more dangerous than it looks.  If President Yanukovych can snub the EU for Putin's stake he will return Europe to the days of the Soviet stone age. Russia is already busy in the "stans" to consolidate its Eurasian might.  Now that it looks westwards the alarms are on!

Asia is becoming hostage to a Sartrian Huis Clos wherein China, Japan and South Korea could end up playing Russian roulette. The tensions regarding the Senkakus/Diaoyu islands might very well escalate and impail freedom of navigation.  In the North, the Kim Jong Un "receipe" to get rid of uncle Jang SongTaek has been described as Shakespearean.  I think this is an insult to The Bard.  It is Hitlerian and reminds one of the night of the long knives. The collateral damage to follow will alienate mostly Chinese sensitivities.  President Xi Jinping is replacing the former collegial power structure by a one-man show and a NSC which may curtail the influence of the PLA.  Prime minister Li Keqiang meanwhile is conducting an overhaul from export to domestic consumption and interest-rate liberalization.
In Asia's south, in India the possible end of the Gandhi rule  and the surge of a Hindu nationalistic alternative might destabilize a pluralistic democracy.

The Middle East is more messy than ever while secretive negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis continue in a climate of indifference.  Israel made a deal with Jordan and nobody seems to take notice. 

South Saharan Africa, Mali included, is a total mess.  Religious and tribal fault lines are overtaking porous borders and "institutions."  Obama's African speech last week fell on dead ears. Mugabe an Co. probably wore earplugs.

South America doesn't figure among any power's priorities, maybe with the exception of China which takes the raw materials and runs...as it does in Africa.

All these flash points seem to have their own life-cycles and burn like unattended brush fires. The usual American world leadership is lacking.  Ambassador John Bolton often mentions the US passivity or indifference. He is more known for "hard" talk than for diplomatic "niceties" but he has a point here. We used to know where America's choices - good or bad- stood.  Nowadays we are lost in a kind of remake of a US dervish dance worldwide without any credible compass or hierarchy.  Washington is trapped by Putin and ignored by the Chinese.  The "pivot" to Asia or the Syrian and Iranian volte faces convinced none while alienating most.

It might seem unfair to be that critical of a super-power while the EU lately is more noticed for what it cannot do than for what it does.  The point is that one is entitled to expect more from the United States.  When the leader fails, the flock tends to abandon ship. The mood among America's allies all over is not rosy and the apprehension looms larger than the former confidence. Washington should consider urgent, concrete confidence-building measures through free-trade, global partnerships with its Asian allies and the formulation of a "doctrine" fit for the dysfunctional world of today. The metaphor of the blind leading the blind needs a timely burial, otherwise prophecies will haunt us for considerable time.

The United States sees itself as "exceptional."  So be it.  This is also the result of a surprising sense of alienation one encounters here. Americans in general do not compare, do not speak foreign languages, are living in a cocoon which serves them strategically but disserves them socio-culturally. The great American movie saga no longer observes the quality canon.  It has become a good made-for-export product, tuned to the sensibilities of masses that have no interest in the European "angst" product.  One is entitled to be surprised by the vast "provincialism" in Congress or in the public at large.  This is not unique but it can be life-threatening in a country which is supposed to "feel home abroad and at home."  In many ways, this country has the best in education, science, R and D, the arts and medicine.  It also has much of the worst compared to other modest Western countries.  The distribution of wealth perpetuates inequalities and the lack of proper infrastructure from the Eisenhower/Franklin Roosevelt days is appalling.  The debacle of Obamacare is further undermining what is left of trust in government at a time when positive, creative, lean government action might be welcome. 

I disagree with the many pessimists who argue that America's days are over. The pluses are plenty but they need to be awakened or rejuvenated. The political parties are rotten to the core and, if unattended, they will  make further room for populist Tea Party extravaganzas.  The United States still remains a magnet for talent and manages immigration much better than its counterparts who are stuck with the likes of Snowden or Jihadists.  Silicon Valley has no counterpart (Israel comes close). The skyscrapers from the Emirats to Shanghai speak more of bluff, arrogance than necessity. The US will remain the "necessary" if not the "indispensable" power for an unforeseeable future.  Building for "shine" can easily lead to bankruptcy. Hold on to your dollars!

OBAMA'S HANDSHAKE

Two events marked the boisterous Mandela commemoration.  The South African President Jacob Zuma was was jeered:  democracy strives in South Africa thanks to Madiba's legacy which was in full sound and view on the moment of his adieu...

President Obama shook hands with Raul Castro
The uproar this  created in the ranks of mostly Republicans is deafening. It was to be expected coming from the likes of Senator Rubio but I am surprised by the reaction of Senator McCain, who cannot be accused of provincial attitudes. The gesture per se was almost anodyne. Cuba is more a relic than a threat. Besides, no Cuban in his right mind speaks of wiping countries off the map or covering terrorism. It helps Venezuela as losers do, comforting each other. For sure the Castro brothers are no fans of human rights but neither are so many world leaders and "allies" who are worse but find open doors worldwide while closing their own doors so that their internal murky dealings remain out of sight. I wonder what the critics of today would have said when President Nixon met Mao?

The US President did the polite thing, which was fitting in a celebration of pluralism and reconciliation. The "nays" look once again like political Neanderthals, alienated from the ways the world at large functions. This "dystopia" maniacal attitude leads to caricatured assessments, generally shared by bigots at large, who can by the way be found in all segments of the American political spectrum, from left to (more often) right. Politicians are stuck in premises which are often outdated, trying (almost pathologically so) to apply outlived archetypes on contemporary situations.

Diplomacy is more about ways than about friends. If the ways collude, the better, if they collide, the worse. Formerly accepted easy prejudices must be overhauled by stress and reality checks. The diplomatic customers vary but there is no other choice than to deal with what there is rather than pursuing what there is not.  Presidents Karzai or Yanukovich are hardly palatable but they cannot be ignored.  Yesterday's foe becomes today's friend (remember the generals in Myanmar and the monks on fire?)

Diplomacy looks for a resolution wherein the chances for an unavoidable military outcome (on condition that one keeps control of scope, time and space, as was the case during the first Iraq war) are reduced and wherein the desirable alternative becomes an incremental goal. Paradoxically, this also implies that the deterrent of undiminished military might needs to be looking over the shoulder of the negotiators. Lately the fury of unnecessary prolonged conflicts has created a subculture which has invaded civil society.  It has become banal, a parasitical commodity which distorts the conversation like chronically phoning or texting.

The invasion of hybrid entities, overlapping-border tribes, clans and freaky Jihadist components leads me to believe that a bad state is better than a non-state. The various former US presidents who have visited Pyongyang will not contradict me. Neither will the American and other investors who are impatient, waiting in their starting blocks to do business with Cuba.

MANDELA

The out-pour of emotion after Nelson Mandela's death had to be expected, given the man's charisma, dignity and achievements.  I certainly will refrain repeating what others do so much better.  I just want to stand still and ask myself why we are so touched by a man who chose always to remain in control of his complexity in a world which is driven by over-simplifications and demagogic categorizing.  The strength of Mandela was his refusal to explain, which would have amounted to banal normalization of the exceptional.  He forgave and went on without acrimony or bitterness.  He didn't have to rationalize and "do" talk-shows.  He just had to be himself, leaving the "pleasures" of scrutiny and analysis to friends and foes alike.

Intuitively we know that for an unforeseeable future there will be no other. The void will remain and his record can be found in the black hole his demise has created. His legacy defies enumeration because it is less about quantifying what was accomplished than about an ethereal quality, which remained childless.  World leaders look even smaller now, in comparison. 

OBAMA'S CHOICE

The unpleasant debate regarding universal healthcare is, in reality, more complex than the decibels pro and contra which hijacked the "heart of the matter."  President Obama has, willingly or not, set in motion what some perceive as a correction of the American psyche.  By doing so, the extremes occupy the "conversation."  The record of the current administration has become an afterthought, overshadowed by an often paranoid larger dispute between Democrats and Republicans. The gridlock in Washington is widening by the day, absorbing former civility and rational thinking. The healthcare battle is more an alibi (the website will work eventually.)  It is the tip of a larger political iceberg, a veil covering a debate over the existential direction the United States will take internally (redistribution) and externally ("pragmatic stick" versus "big stick.")

The dispute being waged is over a fundamental differential between the adherents of less and the proponents of more.  The public does not always realize what they are marching for or against, but senses intuitively that what is at stake is a "reformation", which unsettles some and is felt as contrary to the more familiar Thatcher/Reagan "happy-feel" Anglo sphere.  One hears many misplaced arguments, accusing Obama of standing in the way of the continuation of an American "experiment" based on individual principles, a form of Deism and bottom-up entrepreneurship. Hence the accusations of socialism (few know what this covers), Euro copycat, and indifference towards religion.   

The administration has a flawed defense or attack strategy, insofar as it seems too often aloof and unwilling to engage on the core issues, which loom much larger than "glitches." Overall, the White House has often been an unwilling communicator, both on internal and external affairs. It should engage Congress and mobilized public opinion gurus and intellectuals so that its bona fide agenda can be clarified.  Instead, it uses Congress when it shouldn't (on immigration) and ignores it when it should (on healthcare).  With regard to other issues (Benghazi, IRS, intelligence, Iran, Afghanistan, the pivot towards Asia), the Obama inner-circle fails equally to come forward with a coherent narrative (which is probably there, confined to the inner sanctum). It is losing favor because it is seen as snobbish almost, unwilling to explain or to entertain.  In this vacuum there is plenty of room for legitimate criticism, but also for a perverse personalized hatred, unlike anything we have seen before (Kennedy comes close).

All this is worrisome. America is still the world's steward.  From the relief to the Philippines, the tensions in the East and South China Seas, Iran, the former Arab Spring, the American role is surpassed by none. The growing American energy independence might push the United States to become more distant, not by necessity but by choice. Such a move could further boost isolationism, at a time where a world in tatters and with divergent agendas needs a leader and arbiter. America might no longer be alone as was the case after the end of the Cold War, but it remains ubiquitous by its presence and absence alike.

I still believe that the President has better intentions which can appear, admittedly so, too over-intellectualized.  He is a particular persona.  Remember the Obama from the first presidential debate in 2012?  He looked uninterested, bored, almost despising the explanations he was supposed to deliver.  He only got his mojo back after a collective SOS from his own panicked staff. Too often he retreats into academic ruminating, forgetting that politics are mostly about praxis.  Republicans should not be marginalized, otherwise they will fall prey to their parochial right-wing and become a party of bygones.  Obama should not be misunderstood.  There is fire in this glacier but it needs ignition. The Democrats still have lots of ways to trap Republicans who think that the mid-term elections will be a slam-dunk.  It is too early to predict. The doomsday spin-doctors of the Tea Party better start to argue in a more sophisticated manner some of the acceptable issues they pretend to defend.  It is not enough to be right, one has to sound it too.

The debate between the rights of government and the states is as old as the Federalist Papers and the rift between Jefferson and Hamilton. The added moral and intellectual values thereof should not be left to amateurs, soundbites or unpredictable "iconoclasts." If the discussion does not attain the level it deserves, it might lead to social dysfunction and populism. The President should enter and own the issues before it is too late. He still has a lot going for him but he is running against the clock. The country is not in a foreign policy mood and his possible success there will remain obscure as long as internal matters remain in limbo. He needs the Republicans to tackle immigration, climate change, debt, and the shutdown.  Only the combination of a bi-partisan double and fast-track on such matters as foreign and internal policies or free trade agreements can bring some respite.  The choice is simple:  to choose to engage or to continue to ignore. William Styron's "Darkness Visible" might be recommended reading.

THE LEMAN DEAL

Mary Shelley wrote her Frankenstein while residing on the shores of Lake Leman.  I fear that the so-called nuclear deal with Iran has given us another "hybrid."  Teheran's nuclear program is supposed to be mothballed for the six months to come. In return the existing sanctions will be adjusted. As a result, the Iranians will see part of its frozen assets returned.  It is undeniable that the Iranian theocracy finds itself in an economic slump. This results equally from the mullah's murky dealings with the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and other less-frequentable groupings which receive financial and military support.

It is premature to express an educated opinion about the technicalities of the agreement but it is the right moment to raise the question of the political and "moral" consequences.  This non historical deal will unsettle America's natural allies in the region and might further undermine what is left of Washington's credibility. It will not stop the hardliners in Iran chanting death to America. More important is the Israeli factor. Is it moral to "pivot" into pathological smiles with a negotiating partner who does not hide that he would be delighted to see Israel wiped from the map?  Did the Munich syndrome not die after all ?

One should never exclude negotiations per se, even with an unsavory party.  It is to be hoped that the Iranians were also put under pressure regarding their toxic political agenda.  If this had to be done discreetly, so be it, but it had to be part of the conversation'

The blanks are too manifold in this 5+1 formula.  It does not have legs since it leaves the Russians and Chinese pursuing their differentials under the common umbrella . The Iranians were confronted with a dysfunctional negotiating team.  I fail also to see why one has to be in such a hurry to conclude while the other party is almost on its knees. Besides a rush to full nuclear capability would further economically debilitate a country which suffers already the indignities of a pariah state. Centrifuges are costly !

The six months to come will be interesting to monitor. They will certainly look like a roller coaster. The use of the assets which will be returned need also to be closely watched.
If the interim deal were to derail,  I would fasten my seat belt tight.  It is easier to lower sanctions than to re-install them.

PAUVRE B

Ik las dat de Koninklijke Musea voor Schone Kunsten in Brussel gedwongen werden de tentoostelling Vlaamse Primitieven te sluiten, nadat waterinsijpeling werd vastgesteld (met de eventuele gevolgen daarvan). 
Dit is een gezichtsverlies voor eem museum dat vooral berucht is om zijn oudbollig, niet creatief management en zijn stagnatie in een veranderende kunstwereld, waarin sponsors en giften een cruciale rol spelen. Sinds de " facaditische verbouwing" onder Philippe Roberts-Jones is niets verandert. De chaos tussen de Heimat Latemse school ,de zeldzame werken van formaat ( o.a.Francis Bacon), en de meestal niet overtuigende werken van Rubens en Van Dijck (beter o.m. naar Londen en Parijs afreizen ), leidt tot een bijzondere verwarrende ervaring. De weinige hedendaagse kunstwerken werden eerst versast naar de akelige benedenverdieping en zijn ondertussen spoorloos. Nooit werd er een tentoonstelling van internationaal formaat te zien. Het gebouw inspireert niet, is onderbemand en  bezoeker onvriendelijk. Er is in Brussel geen plaats voor vernieuwing of voor een Bilbao/Amsterdam ( om niet te spreken over de groten ) effect. Hetzelfde geldt voor de Musea voor Kunst en Geschiedenis die mutadis mutandis het V and A in Londen zouden kunnen navolgen, maar die lijden onder een identieke lethargie.
De federale staat moet eidelijk zijn verantwoordelijkheid opnemen en middelen ter beschikking stellen om het kunstpatrimoium op niveau te brengen, sponsorisatie en giften aan te moedigen. Brussel stelt zich voor als Europese hoofdstad, wat het niet is en niet verdient. De Belgische hoofdstad is de zetel van de Europese instellingen en blijft trouwens in gebreke om een ontvangst kapitaal op niveau op te bouwen. Het verloederde milieu en de stadsvervuiling spreken boekdelen. Waar blijft een burgemeester met meer visie dan het "frietkot" ? Waar blijft de federale regering met een globaal initiatief dat ook het publiek in binnen- en buitenland aanspreekt ? Wanneer komen de grote architekten, Gehry,Piano,de Meuron o.a. eindelijk aan de beurt  ?
Ondertussen blijft de Baudelaire reputatie van Brussel voortbestaan en sterven de musea uit om reden van gebrek aan zuurstof.
Ja, we wachten op Antwerpen en ondertussen vult BOZAR de gaten. Europalia verkeert ook in de spoedafdeling; de formule haalt de "finish" niet meer.
Mia Doornaert zegt terecht dat Europa (ook) staat voor cultuur. Jammer dat de verdeling ervan zo ongelijk uitvalt ! Mais, on mange bien a Bruxelles...

PRESIDENT KENNEDY

The 50th anniversary of President Kennedy's assassination has unleashed a torrent of commentaries and re-runs. His looks and demeanor receive movie star appraisal.  Jackie Kennedy has become an icon of almost "Roman" gravitas and the President's oratory skills share the same playing field with the words of  Elizabeth I at Tilbury.  Mistakes are glossed-over (the Bay of Pigs, the Vienna Summit with Nikita Khrushchev) and his more Lord Rochester-like private inclinations remain unattended.  Thomas Mann's words ("the conflict between the inclinations of the soul and the capabilities of the flesh") lurk in the background.

President Kennedy is often considered a transformational personality.  I suggest he was more transitional, a product of Cold War instinct, anglophile elitism (offset by the First Lady's francophilia) and an often reckless temperament. His court of "the best and the brightest" and his choice of envoys are proof of a man who felt closer to the Upstairs than to the Downstairs. His vice-president hardly received consideration, which left the future President Lyndon Johnson vindictive and traumatized.

Nevertheless, despite Kennedy's "spotty" record, the man continues to fascinate. His term in office was too short for major achievements which were left to his successor to finalize, but his tragic demise gave him the part of a Shakespearean persona who was robbed of the accomplishments he put in motion. He promised the moon but it so happened that others reached it. He launched the civil rights agenda but it was President Johnson who came forward with the "Great Society." 

JFK was like a "comet" in the often dour, provincial American political landscape. He made Americans proud while at the same time most of them were alienated from the White House's glamour. They remained set in a middle class way of life wherein style finds little appreciation. The American dream has become anything but lofty. Today, in America's mid-life crisis, Camelot looks very old fashioned, almost contrived.

The new political reality has overtaken the mythology. Kennedy's words no longer fit in the current world which is slipping over the edge.  Here and elsewhere, bureaucrats are taking over. World leaders are no longer surrounded by luminaries or thinkers who were not overly dependent upon lobbies and other PACs, as is the case today.  One should not cover-up yesterday's misdemeanors, neither should one abstain from comparing what is with what was. In doing so one passes judgement. The outcome is clear since "closure" still looks and feels out of reach, as it did 50 years ago, and remains unattainable for the foreseeable future.

WHITE HOUSE WINTER OVERHAUL REQUIRED

Recent events have seriously dented the second term of President Obama. His administration appears more and more isolated internally and externally. The health care reform debacle looks irreversible. An accumulation of faux pas internationally is undermining America's claim to being the indispensable world gatekeeper. The Russian "come-back" in what was considered an American sphere of influence is ominous for Washington's interests. Equally, the Chinese Cheshire cat purrs. The President's own party considers abandoning ship.

The temptation to consider all this as a symptom of regression comes as no surprise. There is a wave of commentary and auto-flagellation which is perverse insofar as it blurs both the temporary and the long term, the incidental and the structural.

President Obama got his Nobel Prize before he had done anything to deserve it. This can easily lead to hubris. The crux of the matter is that "great expectations" were based on a fable rather than on an epic. People cashed in on an almost political Ponzi mirage. The talented candidate Obama became a distant, almost nonchalant president. He appears more often than not to be narcissistic, disliking "proximity."  The "bubble" he inhabits is now bursting at the seams. 

Presidents come and go. If the political gridlock remains unchanged and the foreign policy continues to look erratic, President Obama might be gone before he exits. On the roof of the White House one can spot more vultures than swallows.  The conversation regarding politics has become a shouting match which, by the way, too often diminishes the credibility of the President's repetitive ad nauseam visceral enemies.

Nevertheless, this Gotterdammerung scenario needs to be revisited. As things stand now the future looks grim. Still, one should not be adverse to change for the better.  Politics have also their more ephemeral chromosome and predictions are hazardous.  It is a mistake to confuse political aberrations or mistakes in the short-term with the durability of a long-term diplomatic/military capital, which is far larger than the occasional personality who is supposed to make the best use of it.  What has been damaged can be repaired. The latest diplomatic  Russian "incursions" (Snowden, Syria, Egypt) represent a net gain of three serves for President Putin but the match point is open-ended. The United States remains the primary mover in most theatres, but confidence-building measures have to be taken urgently to convince shaken allies that American engagements stand for determination, not for procrastination. The "might" is a given which stands taller than its temporary warden. The former might be adept or not so.   Hence the "might" can as well become a notion in flux, not necessarily in retreat. 
However, it is becoming clear that the days of pax Americana are gone, whoever the president is, or will be. Fact remains that one is entitled to expect that the occupant of the White House will halt the demise of global influence rather than accelerate it. In any case, the task will be arduous given that the illusion of a unipolar world is no longer.

It would be sad if President Obama ends up with the unhappy crowd of Presidents Carter (very intelligent, nevertheless) and Ford (non-elected). He is gifted, but his character might continue to get in the way of his natural talent.  He still has three years to make good, but after 2014 he will have to consider that his so called aloofness is no longer a "habitat" but a de facto marginalization. He had better start doing a White House cleaning before it is too late. He is in urgent need of messengers bringing him bad tidings, and they are hard to find in the current "inner sanctum". The President can be criticized - that is democracy-, however he should not be systematically slandered by the extreme conservatives, as is too often the case. Soon the Birthers will be back, watch my words...

HISTORY DOES NOT REPEAT ITSELF...

On the eve of the anniversary of President Kennedy's assassination, the various comments and editorials make an attempt to compare "then" and "now."  The comparison is unflattering for President Obama. It is also flawed. Besides, history should not slip into hagiography. President 

Kennedy left a mixed legacy.  Even his sophisticated handling of the Cuban missile crisis was not a deal without concessions (the withdrawal of American missiles from Turkey.)  It is all about style, and his oratory craftsmanship was second to none. The temptation to gloss over less glamorous or unsavory episodes has unfortunately a bigger weight than historical veracity.

The times of Camelot seem outdated now.  The "best and the brightest" created a court which highlighted the almost British acting talent of a man who still inhabits imagination and feeds loss and nostalgia for better days. Only President Reagan came close to creating an aura around his persona which compares to the JFK worship.  Is it not paradoxical to see how this Democratic president was in reality the last one who felt entitled to the ownership of American might and power?  All his successors, with the exception of George W. Bush and Richard Nixon, have felt uneasy or out of place in power's treacherous corridors. However both  did so with more zeal and application than out of natural talent.

Historians are making a fortune in constrained parallel history, looking for common denominators between the Cuban crisis, Vietnam, Kissinger's balance of power politics and current or recent events. They lose track of the larger picture. Fifty years ago the United States stood alone and was able to steer world affairs without having to consider alternative options or competing proposals. Today, as we have witnessed yet again in the dealings regarding Iran, the United States has to consider others and has to confront a world which lies in tatters. A constant rollback of America's influence has led to a situation wherein America is confronted with diminished political and strategic territoriality and capital.  Besides, the rise of the non-states has further corrupted the former uni-polar world.

Political science makes pathetic efforts to find sense when there is no longer room for it.  There are no longer lessons to be learned from Vietnam, Iraq, North Korea or Iran & Co.  Dennis Rodman has replaced Kissinger!  New situations require new therapies. Venezuela or Bolivia today can "free-lance" without fear of retaliation. Drones might be "cool" killers but they multiply at the same time the scourge they are supposed to eradicate.  The Iron Curtain and the Berlin Wall were gifts for the Americans and the West insofar as they isolated and confined a bacteria which ended up consuming itself for lack of oxygen. Walls are rudimentary instruments but they also "deter."  Israel understands this all too well. 

The Obama administration finds itself in a non-enviable situation on too many fronts which seem to have run out of control or become adverse to coherent management. The lack of trust is contagious and is no longer directed at the outside world, it rules among allies who retain "pique" rather than "communality."  Rumsfeld's "Old Europe" is back with a vengeance. Other allies in other vital parts of the world are bewildered.  The American secretary of  state looks as cursed as some Updike or Cheever persona.  It also must be recognized that the old Kissinger method and his periodic assessments of America "in/or versus the world" no longer apply.  Improvisation, or void, has overtaken a more structured intellectual approach, less by lack of will than by lack of co-players.  Foes who still follow, grudgingly, classical diplomatic rules have ended up reinforcing them, often by "blinking" first.  Rogue adversaries are far more perverse because they are unpredictable both for reasons of the means they use and for the mindset which prevails.

To return to President Kennedy... He was able to monitor events because his counterparts knew too well the non-rhetorical danger which would be unleashed if they risked going too far. Life was still precious in those days. The President paid back with his own. Today life has become a commodity. The eternal flame in Arlington cemetery might well morn both a fallen president and a worldview buried with the man who, notwithstanding his imperfections, tried to make sense of it all...then!

STORMY POLITICAL WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES

Governor Chris Christie won his second term as governor of New Jersey.  Terry McAuliffe won the contest as governor of Virginia. The victory of the Democrat was expected. His narrow margin was not. His opponent Ken Cuccinelli lost with a 45.5% while McAuliffe received a 47.9 %.

Those numbers are a slap in the face to both the Republican and Democratic parties. 

Christie represents all that which the "Fox News Republicans" are not.  McAuliffe received the support of the President and the Clinton "death squad machine," besides benefiting from a large fundraising advantage. Nevertheless, the rising anger and frustration about Obamacare are slowly becoming a tidal wave. Cuiccinelli, who is a neanderthal conservative regarding social issues, scored unexpectedly well because the health care reform is becoming toxic. The Clintons, McAuliffe's prime backers, are left with a "hangover."

I am convinced that the intentions of the President regarding universal health care reform were genuine and well-meant. Unfortunately, they are poorly implemented. The end result is a "debacle."  It is becoming difficult to foresee how the White House (which did not care to read the fine print of this Gargantuan bill) will be able to manage this major crisis, which risks derailing the Democrats' ambitions for future elections for Congress and the presidency.  It is too early to predict outcomes because the field in both camps looks murky. The Republicans might still become hostage to Tea Party zealots and the Democrats are starting to distance themselves from the President, and the Clinton embrace. Meanwhile, New York got a radical left-leaning Democratic mayor in the person of Bill de Blasio, who sounds more "Sixties" than 2013, but then New York and California have for awhile now followed more their own instincts than the often unwelcome invasive national "dogmas."

The political landscape looks more divided than ever. The extremes seem to be gaining ground. This might further complicate an already perverted political landscape. The Republicans should come to terms with a country which finds itself in an accelerating social spiral of change.  The hard line Tea Party mantra is a ticket for execution. The Democrats must revert to diversity and stop playing Dynasty full-time. Even the gifted Clintons  are becoming tiresome.  For the moment (how long?) only Christie looks like a man with a mission, open to diversity.  The danger lurks in his own ranks where he is "anathema" to the right-wing.  He had better look over his shoulder before having to say:  Tu quoque.

The President must feel lonely.  He should consider switching from an insular coterie to a more philosophical model able to project more coherent policies internally and abroad (what a mess!) Behind the mediocre play there lies indeed a complex, existential question:  that of the boundaries between State and society.  Yes-sayers will not help in finding the just equilibrium.

THE AMERICAN MALAISE

Years ago Jean Jacques Servan-Schreiber wrote the best seller "Le Defi Americain."  This apology of all things American became the talk of Europe.  Nowadays one is tempted to look more to the American malaise. The country looks, and feels, lost.  The branches of power appear to be in some suicidal agreement a trois.  It is becoming hard to foresee a direction either in internal or external affairs.  The fiascos multiply while the Executive appears too often to have become a prisoner of some "voyeuristic" metastasis.

The latest mishaps are well-known and need not be repeated ad infinitum. Worse is the Schadenfreude in certain parts of the world, Europe included. It could be expected that China or Russia (among many others) relish in watching the American hubris humiliated.  The Europeans, who are, rightly, highly critical of Uncle Sam leading (?) from behind should be more discreet and undergo some anger management. Besides, the spying saga is actually less worrisome than the impasse created by a US foreign policy which begins to look in urgent need of a compass.  If the United States catches a cold, the Europeans had better run for a flu vaccine. We are linked in too many ways and on too many interests to let a quarrel become a blindfold while the house is on fire.

President Obama has already become a "lame duck" and the political pundits are more preoccupied with the post-Obama than with current dysfunction.  This is dangerous at a time when the formerly globalized worldview is under attack.  We are witnessing a "gerrymandering" which is slicing the world into a perverse power struggle between actors and non-actors who have little interest in balance-of-power politics.  It is becoming urgent to put the US-EU Free Trade negotiations on the fast track. NATO needs more than mere a facelift, a strategic check-up. China and Russia have to help calming the turmoil in Northern Africa, the Middle East and the Caucasus because those arms on the cheap which cross borders and continents may as well end up haunting them. Besides, Russia might very well be a haven for Edward Snowden, but it better look over its shoulder when the Afghan/Pakistan beast sets loose. The same goes for China which will have to come to terms with the events in its Wild West and with a post-Dalai Lama Tibet.  Free-lancers like North Korea or Iran should no longer be pawns for some but should be monitored by all.

American leadership was often resented, but the absence thereof is now lamented. The President looks more and more detached at a time when his involvement is invaluable. Congress today is a stain on Washington's reputation. It is symptomatic that the fiftieth anniversary of President Kennedy's assassination is creating a wave of nostalgia for a time when leadership was respected or envied and when rhetoric ruled stronger than today's platitudes. The comparison between then and now is embarrassing.

The EU and the United States need a grand bargain rather than a quick fix. The world is in need of a Western Partnership as much as the EU and the United States need each other as reliable, respected partners. The pulpit is waiting for a Churchillian ( more than "reset" or "pivot" bons mots) address in Brussels, President Obama. Better speak to the ones who understand than to the ones who do not hear.
The movie of the moment in America is "All is lost". It shows what the Zetigeist is about.

JOHN LE CARRE RULES

The US spying on its allies is highly embarrassing.  It is also being handled in a clumsy way. The Obama second term administration looks almost pathologically disconnected on most fronts. The list of blunders is awesome.  At the finishing point, the White House may appear as if it deliberately ignored its enemies while alienating its partners.

The latest revelations regarding the "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" listening-in on the personal conversations of major Western leaders received the usual meek denial from the White House, which has lost all credibility. The sophistic gymnastics of the President are utterly unconvincing. 
The consequences will be hard to manage because "trust" is a non-quantitative "given." Obviously it would be naive to suppose that spying is the sole realm of the United States.  It is an admitted hazard of international politics. However, the personal angle and the scope have created an undeniable malaise. There is also a real danger of overreacting against this over-the-top intrusive, brutal policy. 

There is more to come from the Wikileaks/Snowden camp which will open a can of worms that
should have been avoided. Now that the natural allies of the United States demand reparation, the "leakers" will feel free to open the gates even further. Washington finds itself in the most uncomfortable position while Obama looks to be in "free fall."  The Messiah from the Berlin speech days may as well end up talking in London's Speaker's Corner.  Nobody should rejoice in this.   America's inexcusable ways give the Russians and the Chinese a free pass to fill the gaps which a mistaken strategy has multiplied globally.  The "soft power" machine looks more like an "insensitive" power aberration.

The EU Summit in Brussels today will probably forego the niceties and focus on the credibility gap which might for an unforeseeable time weigh on the transatlantic relationship. It would be highly damaging if uncertainties were to be allowed to derail a possible Free Trade Agreement between the United States and the EU.  The transgressions will, fatally, be seen as an indication of decline rather than as a show of force. 

Combined with the Washington gridlock, the picture is increasingly gloomy.  It is ironic to step into the past where President George W. Bush walked hand-in-hand with the Saudi king at his ranch in Crawford.  Obama must feel lonely sometimes.  The problem is that the "real" Obama likes is that way, and that we were all mesmerized by a "persona" which proved to be more fabricated than real.   There was more closing inward than openness.

DAVID PLANTE's " BECOMING A LONDONER"

David Plante's book/diary is a challenge for the mind and for the senses.  This labyrinthtine walk through a half century of writers, artists and events is a delight.  The "homosexual" love story is touching and reveals all that which the "gay wave" has taken away from former times: sardonic wit and au underground, which infiltrated the "official" world with grey power rather than with Guy Fawkes' gunpowder.  Gay today stands for a lot of good but it has also become more an Abercrombie & Fitch commodity rather than the former whispered coded word and allusive double-life play.

Plante's book often comes across as a fetish of Henry James, as an ashtray forgotten by Virginia Woolf or a May 68 revisited. It also shows the silent infiltration of calcification which comes with age.  Likewise it uncovers Picasso or the "Viaggio in Italia" as only a psycho-analyst could do.

The permanent warfare of Plante against almost all things American (the expat syndrome) is less aggressive than hilarious.  After all, the "Ugly American" still rules.  Last week's political scenario in Washington would have been catnip for Gore Vidal.

The book is insinuating.  Melancholy is always present under the sheets or under the social high- class veneer.  All those mini strokes end up debilitating the body.  The process is insidious, divesting words of memory, one by one. Love, too, is overtaken by routines and repetition, which are the tributes one ends up paying  if there is a will for commitment to last. Transgressions are reduced to some therapeutic passe-temps, without staying power.

All those people, famous and obscure, are involved in a Pirandello scenario. In Proust they would choke on what they say because they must work on how to express it (after all, they are French). Here the talk stays insular, betraying a reticence to let unwelcome intruders invade the conversation. The book is an island "as dreams are made of."  Hence, there are walls of silence and babble, endless dinners or high teas with the sole purpose of recognizing that one belongs to a species which needs to be protected from the world's stage.

The book is a long cantata to most things English, with here and there a sparse allusion to the outside world, generally reduced to a space confined "more in sorrow than in anger."  Current events appear accidentally (the Greek coup, the riots in Paris, travel) and have little impact since they are not allowed to derail the core of the diary which consequently can sometimes feel claustrophobic.  History (primarily Greece, Byzantium and Turkey) is often reduced into a von Gloeden daguerreotype.

The reader leaves this enchanted but perverse stroll with a thousand name cards and as many bruises. He might loose illusions and innocence on the way but will gain in harvesting both empathy and a closeness which can look old fashioned in today's continuous traffic jam.
Potency only worked when it remained unfocused, indeed. Today's Twitter killed yesterday's eagle.

THE TRAP OF THE IRANIAN SMILE

In another show of "force," the sculpture of a naked man at the United Nations headquarters in Geneva was covered up, so as not to offend the Iranians who are supposed to enter into serious nuclear talks.  Meanwhile, thousands of advanced centrifuges spin and the production of plutonium continues unabated.  One should talk nevertheless, but one should also beware of hollow, unverifiable proposals and not let the parade become a charade.

President Rouhani's campaign of smiles without subtitles has done wonders seducing the often gullible Western public, which is now being brainwashed by advertising techniques which the Iranians stole in plain daylight. The West follows in Hitler's steps, hiding "decadent" art out of respect for the sensitivity of the prudes who show zero respect in return.  We hide art which might 
hurt the feelings of the "believers" with no other quid pro quo than their hiding weapons of mass-destruction under the bedrock.  The scenario is always the same:  veil or bust! 

In "enlightened" Malaysia, the name of Allah is now protected by "international property rights" and off-limits for use by Western and other infidels.  Meanwhile, the slaughter spreads like wildfire from the Philippines to North Africa, in a climate of indifference and incestuous fatalism.

The West appears to be suffering from an overdose of masochism.  It accumulates Nobel Prizes but looks unable to come to terms with a Jihad's cancer which remains immune to therapy. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were tragic insofar as they made too many victims to no avail. Elsewhere obscurantism rules and many of the refugees who make it to the European shores will be the terrorists of tomorrow.

As usual nothing is done to come to terms with this toxic wave. The West gives in and the intruder takes over.  Our rule of law, traditions, free speech, and freedoms are under assault while we act like accomplices of our own demise. We give in while being kicked out of our own internal socio-cultural boundaries.  As if this were not enough, lately we specialize in the dysfunctional, with a leadership and a foreign policy which prefer to placate rather than to solve. The current ''Russian roulette" games in Washington are unworthy of a great nation and are leaving America's prestige and leadership in a ditch.  For how long? Congress is a replay of the Marquis de Sade's Charenton.

Lots of commentators speak of the end of the West. For my part, I do not exclude the alternative: the end of the rest.  True, as a whole, we do not look good.  Some actions are morally and politically bankrupting our credibility, betraying our founding principles. On the other side, we are confronted with the long-term consequences of the fast-breeding Muslim fertility score, which will change existing equilibrium's. The glitter of the Emirates are monuments to self-aggrandisement which should not intimidate us.  They can hardly be mistaken for interventions aimed at correcting, educating, or enlightening activities which are mostly off-limits and de-localized, contrary to what happens in China.  The joint initiatives with the Louvre or American museums will never replace the power of the prayer mat. The playing field is not level, as is more and more the case between China and the West.

I wonder what the smart Iranians will come up with to anesthetize yet again the Western cuckolds. Better fasten your seat-belts and, as soon as the Iranians depart, be ready to lift the curtain which is hiding, for now, the ''Satanic'' sculpture in Geneva.  Let us hope that Netanyahu will answer the phone when needed, as Beijing and Moscow will be the usual abonnes absents.

Turns for the better may still happen, but the proof will be found in the Iranian pudding. I am afraid that antinomies have staying power .

WILFRIED MARTENS

Plotseling voelen velen in Belgie zich wat eenzamer.

Wilfried Martens vertegenwoordigde een bescheidenheid met klasse, een poltieke sluwheid met terughoudendheid en hij ondersteunde een Belgisch imago dat evolueerde, zonder het af te breken.

In zijn openbaar en prive leven was hij ergens ongrijpbaar.Het is normaal dat de vertrouwensband die bestond tussen wijlen koning Boudewijn en zijn eerste minister zo duurzaam was.

Het heengaan van Martens stemt tot melancholie. Niettegenstaande zijn soms verassende "bochten", behoorde hij tot de uitstervende club van "gentlemen".

 Politiek was voor hem nooit een lopende zaak en bleef tot het einde een staatszaak, in Belgie en in Europa.

De flamingant van vroeger slaagde er in de Europese tekens aan de want te ontcijferen en de minder aangename klippen van een eng provincialisme te omzeilen.

Belgie heeft genoeg intelligente politici vandaag maar de ietswat strenge, discrete man naar wie we opkeken heeft geen opvolger mogen krijgen. 

Opportunisme maait staatsmanschap.

WIPE YOUR GLOSSES WITH WHAT YOU KNOW (JAMES JOYCE)

The current political "impasse" in the United States reminds me of the Queen's croquet-ground of Lewis Carroll.  The difference being that the novel has now been hijacked by airport literature.

It is painful to see how a world power is slowly accelerating the potential for sliding into the abyss.

It is to be expected that powers encounter bumps in the road here and there.  The EU is a demonstration of recurring malfunction.  Still, all those meetings and endless nights in spooky Brussels end up keeping the situation from getting out of hand.  Egos are bruised but the E.R. always remains open and the slow, frustrating, half-baked healing goes ahead.

In Washington the tone is different. Besides the real intricacies of budgetary and debt problems, the situation is rendered more toxic by a never-seen animosity between branches of government. All seem to be on the wrong page.  The President is undermining his stature at home and abroad by making rowing errors that unseat him.  The Democrats look like props of a "Cocoon" film remake.  The Republicans are lost in a biblical fratricide (what else?) Cain and Able episode.

Meanwhile, the world continues an accelerated jump into what becomes the "toxic globalization" (Adieu Fukuyama).

There is for the moment an accepted suicide pact in the United States wherein the Wagnerian has overtaken the Mozartian.  It would be senseless to attempt to separate the guilty from the innocent, since foolishness is an all-encompassing category.  If the debate were confined around the size and role of government, a philosophical resolution might emerge.  Unfortunately, the discussion looks closed to intellectual argument and has been reduced to mostly heinous personal attacks. 

Obamacare, debt ceiling, government shutdown are ingredients for a dangerous polarization but the real fight is elsewhere. It is a battle about prioritizing the parochial over the general. In the political landscape, common sense is slowly giving ground to what is becoming the dysfunctional. The world watches awestruck.  There are no actors in this play. The President seems to make all the wrong moves. The Democrats stand firm about what few understand (health care reform). The Republicans are divided between Jacobins  and Montagnards, erroneously giving their own civil war the importance it lacks.  This bad script needs a Frank Capra.

It becomes hard to fathom that those pathetic, mostly younger provincial players are unaware of the harm they might inflict on their country.  When Senator John McCain took Sarah Palin as his running-mate, he certainly did not think he had opened the door for mediocre intent or a disjointed worldview.  This American remake of a "trailer park Joan of Arc" paved the path for far more dangerous and formidable followers:  see Rand Paul, Eric Cantor or Ted Cruz.  Some might lack polished worldliness but in today's America the district overtakes the world.  The continuation of the American saga might lose speed while populism and isolationism take over the appeal of what was the "indispensable power." It is not too late yet, but when provincial attitudes start to prevail, empires tend to be bypassed and are no longer invited to the head table. They might also be "ignored" as happened in Asia yesterday when the absent "Pivoter" appeared reduced to "wallflower" status. 

2013 : THE ANNIVERSARY OVERDOSE

This year we are supposed to come to terms with a variety of emotions, celebrations, mourning, remembrance.  We have Verdi and Wagner dueling it out; the words of Dr. King continue to resonate and to save God from total oblivion; November will mark the assassination of President Kennedy, at the fatal hour which stays engraved in the minds of all people who felt for the first time maybe that a single bullet, miles away, could lead to cardiac arrest worldwide. Commemorations can be treacherous and misleading. The pathos runs over the emotion, the pageantry stands in the way of the meaning. The gestures look premeditated, the tears opportunistic.  Verdi and Wagner will be appropriately celebrated. The "I had a dream" exhortation of Dr. King remains, unfortunately, as pertinent today as it was then.  Has so little fundamentally changed?

President Kennedy belongs to a totally different narrative. His stature grows contrary to his country which appears too often as running out of steam.  His personal shortcomings have become almost trivial in a contemporary world which has fallen victim to a cerebral vascular standstill.
Memory is selective. The more we find ourselves under the spell, the more we avoid mentioning the less attractive. True, the gossip also tends to lose its impact when the highlights shine so much brighter today in a country which finds itself in a depressed mood.  Kennedy went for the moon, while lately presidents shot in their foot. Cuba, Berlin, the Peace Corps, the Alliance for Progress, Civil rights (enacted by Johnson) still feed pride and creative interpretation. The Bay of Pigs fiasco or the disastrous Vienna Summit are seldom mentioned.

Nevertheless, this glamorous-looking Kennedy couple remain in many ways a cypher. There is a "Macbeth" angle there which remains unspoken.  They flirted with snobism and came close to being aliens in the American man-in-the-street psyche.  The Kennedy aura was not unlike a Shakespeare performance. The theatergoer does not get the sum of the spoken word but goes away with an expression, a monologue, an enchantment.  President Kennedy is, likewise, less remembered for his sophisticated political speeches than for his wit and flirtatiousness. Together with the First Lady he followed the contrary path of Henry James, who had to go "overseas" to find himself. The Kennedy's brought the "overseas" to the United States, upgrading the American "fabric" they found upon entering the White House.  Kennedy's aristocratic contacts with the UK (unlike his despised appeaser diplomat father), and his wife's Chatsworth-envy created a Camelot which is hard to emulate but starts to look depasse as time goes by.   Still, we miss a man who could even make seduction look easy.

MONTESQUIEU (1689-1455) PERSIAN LETTERS REVISITED

Besides asking himself "What is a Persian?" Montesquieu stated that "a nation may lose its liberties in a day and not miss them in a century."

Last week, Manhattan was again transformed into the usual NASCAR race wherein official limousines and SUVs invade the town with a total disregard for rules and pedestrians. It is always sociologically revealing to observe how the more obscure hide their irrelevance in a mass of bodyguards and an entourage more interested in shopping than in listening to the mostly forgettable utterances of speakers who get their 15 minutes of Warholian exposure.  The Iranian president stole the show.  Rouhani was able to double-talk and to take the media hostage to platitudes which were only noteworthy insofar as they were polite, contrary to the raging outbursts of his pathological predecessor.

Obama and his Iranian counterpart did not meet or indulge in the "handshake of the century." Their telephone call made more news than any escort call coming from hotel suites or the Glass House on First Avenue.  I find this Rouhani fever naive. His entourage supposedly was a composite of all opposites:  the token Jewish parliamentarian is a joke and the Foreign Minister Javad Zarif (U.S. educated) is catnip for "Orientalists."  Last but not least, the Iranian President, who was chief nuclear negotiator (2003/2005), knows all too well how to let talks drag on until they collapse under the weight of their unsubstantial affirmations. Nevertheless he received star treatment.

The tactic is always the same...tire the other side and gain time for the centrifuges to multiply. The lie in the Muslim philosophical pantheon is a capital player, rolling over good faith or gentleman's agreements like a Sisyphean stone.  Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is the wizard behind:  the veil wields the hard power and lets the show go on.  Obama is right to engage but the chosen moment should have been his.  Debacles in- and outside are undermining the U.S. presidency lately. The sanctions against Iran are one of the few trump cards left and should not be reversed.  Here and there one already hears of sanctions"light."  Reversing or modulating now what has proven to "have teeth" would be a monumental mistake. The convoluted American ways in Iran or towards North Korea show too often a tendency to rush towards some ad hoc form of hybrid arrangement rather than sticking to principle. 

The rhetoric which comes out of Tehran has switched into a moderato mode but otherwise nothing has changed. Assad or Hezbollah remain Iran's protectorates and the path to Iranian nuclear maturity remains wide open, notwithstanding the fairy-tale denials of the Supreme Leader who uses religion as a veil (this garment has many uses).  Netanyahu might suggest some reality checks during his meeting with Obama.

Talking is generally better than ignoring, even if it makes the air one breathes polluted, but please let us not repeat a Kim Jung Un/Dennis Rodman farce for Page 6 readership. The Gipper or Nixon were not over-intellectualizing presidents but in verifying and negotiating from a position of strength they projected instinct and drive. Obama should  listen once in awhile to the infamous Nixon tapes.  In between the less attractive passages there are insights which remain valid.  After all, even Churchill sometimes sounded more like Falstaff than Hamlet. 

Returning to Montesquieu, it is remarkable to foresee in his treatises the seeds of the thoughts of Huntington or Fukuyama:  the tension between reason and custom.  Let him have the last word: "The success of most things depends upon knowing how long it will take to succeed."
Bon voyage !

RENE MAGRITTE in MOMA,New York City

MOMA is opening the fall season next week with a BANG:   Rene Magritte's oeuvre comes to Manhattan.

This banal looking Belgian bourgeois has left us with many questions and few answers.  Even in his writings he remains a brilliant enigma.  Likewise his paintings are very uneven if one wants to compare his iconic works with his Periode Vache which represents a waste of time.  His almost Churchillian "Ceci n'est pas une pipe'' could be applied to him:  ''Ceci n'est pas un peintre.''  His painting is flat, like the work of some house painter. There is no brush, no life, no human input almost.  Nevertheless, we continue to be mesmerized and destabilized by works which defy gravity and logic. He confronts us with fear and alienation by sheer luck, almost disposing of inhibtions, recreating situations which collide without external damage.  The fear he conveys is one of silent movie reels, mass rallies, nightmares.  Robert Hughes spoke about this "dark" aspect with an authority few can equal.

Magritte's work is hypnotic and needs to be read as much as to be seen. One shouldn't look for the sophisticated recreation of the great masters. On the contrary, this work rejects the magnifying lens and rejects proximity.  The paintings are stories which feel more at home in voyeurism than in observation. This small, predictable artist was closer to Chaplin than to Eisenstein.  His force is subversive. So was his persona, which was able to make the banal the ultimate camouflage for Freudian nightmares. The kiss between the couple, mutually inaccessible because of the cloth which separates them, is one of the most disturbing works created. Magritte could not have painted the raw horror of "Guernica" or the bacchanalia of  "Les Demoiselles d'Avignon."  His small suburban house was too tiny to let the sound of war or orgasm roam through the banal neighborhood which cushioned and protected him. No, his world was closer to the novels of this other genial Belgian, George Simenon, who was diabolically able to make the soup served taste like devil's brew.

The comparison has been made between Magritte and his fellow countryman Marcel Broodthaers.
Both used the canon as a totem. The difference being that Magritte's has no ammunition while Broodthaers' was ready to fire. While I was in China I tried to have a Broodthaers installation in Tienanmen.  The Chinese refused. This proves that the subtitles of conceptual art are better understood than what many imagine.  Magritte's work is ominously silent, slow in arrested movement, shy of the ultimate deadly bite or corrosion. Those body parts, mountains, birds, looming destruction are always taken hostage before they fall apart or dissolve. He tiptoes around catastrophe and decay and leave us alone with the fury which is in waiting. We are free to look at the snapshot or to project the imminent soul quake which is a fraction of a second away. This collective work is cruel behind the banal surface and leaves no room for compassion. The floating umbrella men are no Mary Poppins, they are Armageddon. The absence of reference to the waging war remains an enigma.

Undoubtedly the images of this perverse Weltanschaung will benefit the sale of paper bags and wall paper for the innocents who in their vast majority ignore the meaning of this highly toxic wrapping. Magritte always has the last laugh.

EUROPE and AMERICA : STORMY WEATHER

I recently spent time in Europe, mostly in the EU inner circle of Dante's hell.  Brussels, where the rude info services are at their worst, is certainly not the ideal gateway to EU land.  Here and there things have improved but overall the Zeitgeist looks totally unappealing. Europe as a whole gives the impression of some arrested body in need of a bypass. Nobody seems to enjoy belonging to this club where the armchairs remain unoccupied. Besides, the EU members have to fight on many fronts, social and financial, and they are trying to hold on to what they still have, while Catalan's, Scots or Flemish have their eye on the exit door in painfully surviving states.

It did not have to be this way. The ambitions were sound but the leaders got cold feet and the common political and military goals were mothballed, pursuing a model in "reduced mode," based in a virtual capital. Members and institutions had better stay far away and  immune to the chronic Belgian compromise disease.   Anyhow, the Brussels meetings are "routine," not unlike the European Parliament, which is to be found everywhere doing almost nothing.

The United States is not in the best of conditions either. The President, "community organizer of hope," has become the "philosopher king," of doubt.  The major American institutions come up with traps instead of collaborative solutions. The debt continues on a path to nowhere. The foreign policy appears to be a patchwork of contradictory inputs. The economy does nominally better but the real unemployment is closer to 15% than to the official 7%.  Meanwhile, Congress is more a Medusa raft than a remake of ''le congres s'amuse''.  The country is in pre-electoral mood already. The absurd rules before its time.

Still, the Americans do not find themselves in dire straits like their European counterparts. They live in a cultural boom and a creative technological bubble which partially compensate for many sore points (Detroit, the fiscal cliff, the debt ceiling which might very well lead to a government shutdown).  The climate is corroded but it is not mortgaged.  The United States remains Number One and the President's upcoming Asian trip is meant to indicate that the "pivot" is for real (remember the "reset"?)  Unfortunately, Obama has become a "lame duck" avant la lettre and seems unable to inspire his allies or to deter his foes. It has become personal.  

Putin remains a formidable antagonist but his ability is more about disturbance than about structural strategic change. The Chinese risk being more and more preoccupied with internal affairs (political and economic) than with foreign arrays. Actually, the Americans would do better looking closer to home, to Latin America, where they may have to pay a huge price for their past exploitation and their current neglect.

Both the US and the EU lack the creative bold leadership they need so badly.  Obama might still 
get hold of his former mojo if the free trade agreement between the US and the EU works out.  The EU appears unable to tackle the problems which it is faced with on all sides because it played with immigration like with fire, handled enlargement like a fairy tale, and inflicted monetary waywardness like some hide-and-seek game.

The United States had better call 911, and Europe had better regroup before it wakes up one morning not knowing whose head it finds on the pillow (thank you Mr. Churchill).   L'exception culturelle is not just a one-night stand !

At the end of the road the old lovers will reunite. The youthful eagerness will be replaced by mature necessity.

Exceptionalism versus extaordinary

President Putin has launched a direct attack against American exceptionalism.  True, the term has been "over used."  Nevertheless, the reality still stands and despite many shortcomings the American dream is alive and continues to attract immigrants by the thousands.  The Russian Federation has made many extraordinary strides lately but it remains unable to shed the stains of the past.  Since Peter the Great's intellectual thefts, from Catherine the Great and Stalin's unsavory records, Russia stands in history as the butcher of its own and but also as the unsurpassed courageous ultimate shield for Stalingrad. The Soviet Union was built around one of the most ambitious and far reaching Utopian philosophies ever.  Marxism, alas, only led to mass starvation in the USSR, as it did later in Mao's China.  It fought Nazi Germany after having embraced it for a chunk of territory.  The Russian history is the stuff only Eisenstein could grasp.  The stairs in this Bolshevik Potemkin drama or the massacre in Yekaterinburg continue to haunt us,  as does Pasternak's 'A Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich.'

There is an anger in Putin which is real and does deserve respect. The demise of his former empire was like Prussic acid thrown at his soul.  This man is obsessed with this loss and will try anything to compensate for what he feels as a humiliation. He is more Ivan than Chekhov. The whole Russian foreign policy is rooted in this need for revenge. Moscow is trying to build networks such as in the Shanghai cooperation council or by engaging Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
This leads to uneven results while the tensions in the south Caucasus continue to cause trouble. Hence Moscow's policy versus Syria is more than about Syria.

Few people knock at Moscow's door. Russia remains in large part a country that is more remarkable for weight than levity.  The United States by comparison has of late accumulated mistakes and geo-political myopia. Since the Korean War, blunders have been plentiful.  Still, they have surpassed any other country in accumulating Nobel Prizes, patents and creativity. Their often incoherent political apparatus continues to be rooted in a most sophisticated political/ constitutional framework which stands undisputed, notwithstanding abuse and malfunction.  People of all kinds still want to get in:  from cheap labor hoping for better wages to the children of the brain drain out of Asia and other continents. America attracts (whatever the legitimate criticisms), others distract. There is so much that does not work here--infrastructure, political gridlock, gun lobby--but there is so much which fights against malfunction that one ends in a draw until the better prevails. This gives the United States an appeal which reaches further than setbacks, structural deficiencies and, let's say it, socio-aberrations in education and social welfare, where the best hardly compensates for the worst.

I understand frustrations in the short term but I know likewise that America in the future will need more bouncers to control its borders than any other country ever will. The difference being that individuals in the vast majority want to be American.  Drop the latest Apple iPad in Red Square if you want to see how a mass movement in this new century starts.

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

LAST WEEK WAS EXTRAORDINARY.   FOR THE FIRST TIME PERHAPS, THE RUSSIANS WERE ABLE TO PREACH TO THE AMERICANS ON THEIR OWN TURF.  NOT ONLY COULD PUTIN DIMINISH OBAMA'S STATURE AT HOME AND ABROAD, BUT HE WAS ABLE TO STEAL THE NARRATIVE AND TO IMPOSE HIS OWN THERAPY IN THE SYRIAN SAGA. THE  "RED LINE" THREAT BECAME (UNFORTUNATELY) AN EMPTY SOPHISM. THE USE OF U.S. "PINPRICKS" AGAINST ASSAD ARE THE BUTT OF MISPLACED JOKES AND SCEPTICISM.
THE SECRETARY OF STATE APPEARS TO CONSORT WITH CONTRADICTIONS.

ALL THIS WAS DONE BY A COUNTRY WITH A DISMAL RECORD ON HUMAN RIGHTS, WHICH RESCUED A CLIENT STATE THAT HAS PERFECTED THE USE OF LIES AND TERROR, SECOND TO NONE.  ASSAD HAS GOTTEN A BOOST AND GIVING UP (?) CHEMICAL WEAPONS COMES EASY AS HE HAS AN OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE AGAINST AN INSURGENCY WHICH IS DISTRUSTED AND INFILTRATED BY UNRELIABLE ELEMENTS.  JORDAN, TURKEY, EGYPT, LEBANON, THE GULF STATES, ISRAEL, INTER ALIA, MUST TAKE NOTICE AND ARE TAUGHT A LESSON IN CYNICAL OR INCOMPETENT JUGGLING. THE FRENCH AND THE BRITISH WILL THINK TWICE FROM NOW ON BEFORE SUPPORTING A PLIABLE ALLY.  AMERICAN PRESTIGE IS AT A LOW POINT.  THE PRESIDENT HAS ALIENATED ALMOST EVERYBODY.

THE U.S./RUSSIAN DEAL MIGHT WORK OUT IN THE END, ON CONDITION THAT ASSAD FEELS THE HEAT.  IF IT DOES WORK, THE RUSSIANS WILL HAVE CASHED IN A DIPLOMATIC COUP.  CONVERSELY, THE UNITED STATES IS ALREADY PERCEIVED WITH SUSPICION IF NOT A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF DISBELIEF. OBAMA CUNCTATOR' S WAYS START TO LOOM OVER HIS PRESIDENCY AND MIGHT DERAIL HIS SECOND TERM'S AMBITIONS.

ASSAD REMAINS IN CHARGE, THE SLAUGHTER CONTINUES.  TO IMAGINE THAT INSPECTION AND DESTRUCTION CAN GO ON IN SUCH AN ABNORMAL CONTEXT IS NAIVE. AS LONG AS IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH HAVE CARTE BLANCHE, ARMS WILL FLOW. THE RUSSIANS HAVE NO INTEREST IN ANY MOVE WHICH MIGHT JEOPARDIZE THEIR GEOPOLITICAL GAIN AND THEIR CLIENT STATE IN THE REGION. AFTER THE DISASTROUS TURN OF EVENTS IN CAIRO, WHICH EQUALLY IGNORED AMERICAN ADVICE, A VACUUM IS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY BEING CREATED WHICH IS A STANDING INVITATION FOR ANOTHER PARTY TO COME IN AND FILL THE GROWING VOID.

I AGREE THAT THIS IS A HIGHLY TOXIC MATTER AND THAT CAUTION IS BETTER THAN GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY IN A WORLD WHICH IS GLOBAL. THE PROBLEM IS THAT LIKE IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN THE AMERICANS SEEM TO HAVE NO OPTIONS FOR PLAN B OR ANY FOLLOW UP. THE RUSSIANS CAN AFFORD TO BE CONTENT WITH THE STATUS QUO. WASHINGTON DOES NOT NEED TO ADD DEFICITS AT HOME AND ABROAD. THE PRESIDENT LOOKS LIKE A BAD ACTOR PLAYING HAMLET BUT REMEMBER THAT THE PLAY IS A MASS KILLER AS WELL. OBAMA MUST FEEL LONELY, SURROUNDED BY THE FAITHFUL WHO ARE MORE SYCOPHANTS THAN CARRIERS OF CREATIVE, CONCEPTUAL, LONG-TERM ALTERNATIVES.  PRESIDENT BUSH WAS PRISONER OF A NEO-CONSERVATIVE AGENDA BUT HE DEFENDED IT FOR BETTER AND, ALAS, FOR WORSE. HE WAS "PREDICTABLE" TO A POINT AND WAS, PARADOXICALLY SO MAYBE, AN INDISPENSABLE PLAYER ON THE WORLD STAGE. WORLD LEADERS TEND TO AVOID UNPREDICTABLE PEERS.   PRESIDENT OBAMA'S RHETORICAL ACROBATICS HAVE BECOME UTTERLY UNCONVINCING AND HE RISKS BECOMING DISPENSABLE.   WHEN CRIMES GET A FREE RIDE, PUNISHMENT BECOMES PART OF A BOOK SELDOM READ. DOSTOEVSKY DESERVES BETTER READERSHIP THAN THE KREMLIN.

THE GHENT ALTAR PIECE: THE LAMB FELL OUT OF THE FRAME IN ST PETERSBURG.

THE LAST CENTURY GAVE US SOME COLORFUL AMERICAN PRESIDENTS. WOODROW WILSON ACTED CONCEPTUALLY; THEODORE ROOSEVELT CONDUCTED FOREIGN POLICY WITH AN IMPERIALISTIC "GUSTO";  FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT OUTMANEUVERED ALL HIS PEERS, BUT FOUND HIS MATCH IN UNCLE JOE (STALIN) ; HARRY TRUMAN BOMBED; DWIGHT EISENHOWER KILLED THE "FOLIE A TROIS' IN SUEZ; JOHN F.KENNEDY MADE THE RUSSIANS BLINK; LYNDON JOHNSON LED THE COUNTRY TO THE GREAT SOCIETY;  RICHARD NIXON REDIRECTED THE WORLD (MORE THAN A PIVOT ); RONALD REAGAN INVADED GRANADA WITHOUT ASKING HER BRITISH MAJESTY'S PERMISSION; BUSH FATHER AND SON OUTFOXED (GEORGE THE ELDER) OR PLAYED WITH PREEMPTIVE STRIKES (THE SON ); CLINTON BECAME THE "SAGE" STATESMAN OF WORLD AFFAIRS; IN COMPARISON, OBAMA STARTS TO LOOK PATHETIC LATELY, PLAYING WITH COLORED PENCILS IN A REMAKE OF CAPTAIN KANGAROO. HE MIGHT END UP IN A SERIES B MOUNT RUSHMORE TOGETHER WITH PRESIDENTS FORD AND CARTER.WHAT THE GREAT MAN WILL TELL THE NATION NEXT TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WRITTEN (YET AGAIN) IN STONE.

RIGHTLY, SYRIA IS TOO SERIOUS AN ISSUE TO BE FLIPPANT. I REMEMBER GENERAL COLIN POWELL'S WORDS "WHEN YOU BREAK IT, YOU OWN IT."  IT IS NORMAL THAT OBAMA IS CAUTIOUS. HE IS RIGHT TO BE SO. HIS EVER CHANGING TUNE PROVIDES, HOWEVER,  THE WRONG MESSAGE, WHICH FURTHER ALIENATES THE ONES HE SHOULD CONVINCE AND EMBARRASSES THE FRIENDS HE SHOULD BRING TOGETHER. THE PRESIDENT NOW SEEKING CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL MAKES AN ALREADY COMPLEX SITUATION EVEN MURKIER. THE DISTANT DISARRAY NOW RISKS INVADING THE POLITICALLY TREACHEROUS CORRIDORS OF THE HOME TERRITORY WHERE OBAMA COUNTS FEW REAL "FRIENDS" IN CONGRESS, WHICH, AS INEPT AS IT MAY BE, FEELS, RIGHTLY SO, SNUBBED BY A PRESIDENT OFTEN CONSIDERED AS MOVING IN A VIRTUAL SPHERE.

TODAY EVERYBODY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ASSAD & Co, FEELS FRUSTRATED. THE BRITISH P.M. DAVID CAMERON WAS HUMILIATED.  HOLLANDE, WHO ALREADY HAD DREAMS OF AN ALTERNATIVE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP WITH THE USA, IS LEFT STANDING IN THE RAIN. THE REBELS ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE AMERICAN OVERKILL. THE ARABS ARE A DIVIDED LOT WHEREIN THE "BETTER ONES" MAY START TO CONSIDER CHANGING INSURANCE BROKER.  RUSSIA COULD MEANWHILE RECLAIM ITS ZONE OF INFLUENCE, SECOND TO NONE.

OBAMA SEEMS AFRAID OF LIGHTING A MATCH WHERE OTHER U.S. COMMANDERS-IN- CHIEF NEVER HESITATED TO ACT AS THE HEIRS OF MARS.  NOBODY WANTS A REPEAT OF PAST BLUNDERS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN, NOR DOES ANYONE LIKE TO HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE THAN TO WATCH SOME RWANDAN REPEAT. ALREADY THE U.S. INTERVENTION HAS BEEN REDUCED IN SCOPE AND PURPOSE BY THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF WHO BECAME RED LINE COLORBLIND. ALL OUTCOMES APPEAR BAD. KOSOVO LOOKS LIKE A BYGONE AREA AND THE OLD LADY (NATO) IS SLOWLY BECOMING OBSOLETE.

IF THE DEATHS OF 1400 INDIVIDUALS IN A CHEMICAL ATTACK, COMBINED WITH THE HELLISH DIASPORA, REMAIN UNANSWERED, WE SET THE CLOCK OF HISTORY BACK TO MUNICH TIMES.  I, FOR ONE, HOPED FOR A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION INVOLVING ALL PARTIES BUT, IF ONE DECIDES A PRIORI THAT THE UNINVITED WILL REMAIN SO AD INFINITUM, THE EFFORT BECOMES FUTILE. ISRAEL MIGHT STILL INTERVENE BY PROXY,
BUT THIS MIGHT LEAD TO BRINGING THE DIVIDED ONES BACK TOGETHER AND FURTHER SPLIT THE OTHER SIDE, WHICH IS LICKING ITS WOUNDS IN PARIS AND LONDON. OBAMA ENDED UP BEING A VERY LONELY "LAMB" IN ST. PETERSBURG. PUTIN WAS IN MACHIAVELLIAN MODE AND HIJACKED THE AGENDA, LEAVING OBAMA LOOKING ISOLATED.  I JUST LOVE TO SEE PUTIN'S WOLFISH SMILE. A REPRESENTATIVE DIPLOMATIC GATHERING OF NATIONS, LARGER THAN THE ARCANE, UNGLAMOROUS G-20 (WHERE THE HOST COUNTRY HAS A TACTICAL ADVANTAGE) AND INCLUDING ALL MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST (ASSAD AS WELL), WOULD HAVE MADE IT MORE ARDUOUS FOR RUSSIA AND CHINA TO PLAY "DEVIL"S ADVOCATE"  WITH IMPUNITY.

TOO MANY FRACTURES SHOW A US FOREIGN POLICY LIMPING AND THE TRADITIONAL AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM FRACTURING.  THE AMERICAN LEADER NO LONGER HAS A FLOCK, SOON HE MAY ALSO LOOSE HIS FROCK..

ALICE

La mort d'un etre "particulier " devient intraduisible. Les paroles, les larmes, le renvoi aux souvenirs vecus ensemble ne sauraient cacher de la vue de l'immeuble existentiel qui s'est effondre de l'interieur. Le chagrin est un ecroulement fatal. Toutes ces pieces detachees ne retrouveront plus jamais une coherence. Certaines morts sont plus scandaleuses que d'autres, des lors qu' elles piegent le juste temps, la juste mesure...pour autant qu'il y ait de la justice dans la fin du voyage. Tout au plus peut il y avoir une liberation, un aboutissement. Mais quand le mal frappe avant l'heure, non annonce, il est insupportable.

Je n'entends pas elaborer car il ne s'agit pas de moi mais d'une personne dont l'integrite ne doit pas etre prise en otage par une projection qui doit garder la distance pour ne pas devenir exhbitioniste Mon ultime hommage sera de m'effacer autant que faire se peut,  pour laisser la place a qui la merite.

FAITES VOS JEUX

Enough about the disease, it is time to consider the treatment.  The diagnosis is not that simple though.  Presuming that Egypt is divided in two camps is an oversimplification. True, there are Islamists.   On the other side is the military, who for the time being have the support of a composite majority (for how long?)  Cracks are already appearing in this non-Islamist part of the population which is worried that the military might get "high" on their current status and reluctant to switch to a more pluralistic constitution and representation.  Indeed they appear to be more opportunistic than motivated by better governance. The economy is in shambles and nobody is coming forward with a "grand plan."   Egypt stands alone and the money which is provided by the Emirates or the Saudis does not replace a political regional and international relevance which is lost for an unforeseeable time. The Pharaoh state from Mubarak (watch my words...he might have some "come back") became a hybrid under Morsi, ending up being a pariah, an almost-failed state in the current turmoil.

There are mainly two dangers (besides the structural shortcomings that were always there) despite the largely subsidized foodstuff and the wealth of the few who lived in their gated communities.

The first obstacle is that Egypt stands alone in the region. Money is soft power. Hard power is absent. The army might as well blackmail the United States and turn elsewhere for support, reversing Sadat's strategic U-turn to America (and Israel).  The canal (remember Disraeli's "le canal SUEZ-CIDE") better not be for grabs! The Sinai has to be (ideally) monitored, internationally.

The second danger is Egypt's relative isolation in the region and in the world. Turkey condemns, Saudi Arabia applauds. The EU does what it does best:  talks. The Americans have lost most of their influence and find themselves in a quandary. One could argue that the US should not discontinue its aid package to the mostly Egyptian military.  If this were the case, conditions should have to be attached. If the military showed disregard for such concerns, the Americans might cut off aid. Otherwise they risk losing influence as well as the little moral credibility capital they still hold. The strategic partnership between Cairo and Washington is considered by both parties as a "win/win"situation. The long-term consequences of ending it might outweigh the moral high ground in the short term.  Also, imagine Israel stuck between Syria imploding and Egypt becoming ungovernable!?   Washington risks looking a 30-year investment, following in the footsteps of the Iranian meltdown!

It is becoming obvious that the situation needs an innovative therapy, after so many US leaders have been shown the door by the military. President Obama looks clueless (he is not the only one). If such a thing were still possible, the solution must come from the Arabs, first under the auspices of the UN and the Arab League, secondly with the support of the Quartet, when required. A new constitution, elections, return to civil rule,  better be decided upon in an accelerated fashion with the input of all (Islamists included).  Presidents Mubarak and Morsi should not be relegated to some Egyptian-style Guantanamo. The rule of law must be reinstated. Through all this, the West should help the democratic forces which existed and almost flourished during the last centuries under the Khedive and Kings Fouad and Farouk, until the Palace coup (again) which was stopped by the British. Western countries should be "low key" in this theatre of the absurd where they have more to lose than to gain. Both Islamists and supporters of the "non coup in the coup" find themselves in some anti-American unison. This goes for the West in general by the way, but the potential major losers are the Americans (and possibly Israel).  Iran and, to a lesser degree Turkey, are surprisingly discreet...so are cats when they see an opening.

The (half) Palestinian /Israeli "peace" talks continue, so it seems. The discretion might be as encouraging as it might become embarrassing.  Looking at Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, the Sinai, Macbeth's words come to mind: "Full of sound and fury."  Let us hope that this does not point to a foregone conclusion (Othello.III.3.426) but I fear the the noise will overtake the rumor.

The"Alexandria Quartet" belongs to the past, whatever the outcome of the present "killing streets."   Malesh!