2012's AGONY

The year is ending like a misshapen cheese soufflé.  All over, contradictions abound, bad faith rules.

In the United States the negotiations about the "fiscal cliff" show all the protagonists in their most unflattering "self." The class warfare that is a permanent sub-title for the comings and goings in Congress and in the White House is not only out of place, it goes head-on against America's psyche.  Worse, economic common sense takes the back seat, while the driver of the moment (there are many) too often appears reckless and demagogic. The President likes to remain aloof, seen as above the fray, but meanwhile the uncertainty principle undermines both the confidence and the morale of the man-in-the street and of the middle-class which he pretends to defend.

The EU received the Nobel Peace Prize. The speech of the President of the Council, Herman Van Rompuy ("Ich bin ein Europear"), was anything but Churchillian.  Most EU leaders were present but British P.M. David Cameron preferred to send his regrets with his vice P.M. The prize, deservedly so, recognizes past achievements but glossed over recent depressing events and the current dystopia. New emerging economies show more creativity than the EU.  Besides, a number of member states look like lumps of sugar on the verge of dissolving in a cup of hot tea.

The Middle East and the Arab world in general are a diplomat's nightmare. This vast minefield looks as if it will never be cleared. The revolutions are hijacked by various agendas which deprive the few who initiated them of their initial secular message. On the contrary, past arbitrary regimes make room for perverse successors. There are no visible heroes, no Lech Walesa, no Aung San Suu Kyi.  Sunis, Shia Muslims, Alawites, Wahabists--if not a metastasized Al Quaeda redux--kill each other in the name of the same god.  One should think twice before taking sides in those wars within wars.  Meanwhile in Gaza, the lynching of Israel remains the mantra. While disagreeing with him, I can also understand Netanyahu's maximalist reaction with regard to the settlements, although his most recent decision might have unpleasant unforeseeable consequences.

"Asia Felix" continues its march towards progress "a la carte" in the shadow of a rising, unstoppable China, which is able to merchandise its reach as a benevolent added value for all.

It is high time to pay closer attention to the spectacular evolutions in Latin America and the uneven, often dangerous changes occurring in Africa. By the way, the approach of African affairs and regional networking by the presumed front line candidate for the post of American secretary of state, Susan Rice, might raise some questions.

Australia is the first beneficiary of President Obama's "Asia First" foreign policy and is fast becoming a strategic geo-political player on the new world chess board.

The armada of players and problems which will enter the anno 2013 troubled waters does not bode well. The former are no longer identifiable because "non actors" tend to mingle with the recognized ones. The latter are in a flux or limbo, so that it becomes increasingly difficult to categorize or prioritize.  The "hybrid" prevails nowadays, creating a challenge for Intelligence. The yearly recycled James Bond saga looks quaint and antiquated compared to today's toxic cyber Armageddon. Energy, climate change, equality, and resources raise more problems than opportunities for working together, as should be expected. We have been unable to come up with the right answer after 9/11 which besides being a tragedy ended up becoming a multiplier of hell. The tragic miscalculations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the wasted lives for a murky, misguided goal, might stay with us for generations.  Iran and Syria are already on the waiting-list for possible wrong assessments at the wrong time.

The moral compass has disappeared. Instead, we live under the contradictory pattern of a collision course between opportunism and improvisation.  No stakeholder has a "grand plan."  Actions taken are too often directed at constituencies who might lack legitimacy and certainly have no strategic long-term insight. The last illusions stemming from the good old cynical times of Yalta are buried under the rubble of the Twin Towers. Since then political science has come up with ideas that were more fashionable than long-lived. Friedman, Fukuyama, Krugman, Nye or Huntington are formidable intellectual actors but they are also "entertainers" in the sheltered academic blogosphere, in the same vein as the formerly (in)famous French "nouveaux philosophes."

Somehow there is little "gravitas" around.  Challenges remain unanswered. For instance, one will have to end up talking "under conditions" to Hamas.  How to bring about a change of mindset?  One needs equally to face up to the duplicity of the Arab Spring and to "out" the various actors in this perverse poker game.  China needs incentives so that it might become a player rather than just being a raider.  Initiatives have to come from all sides and not be dictated by the few if we want to avoid the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The Security Council is obsolete. Europe is over represented while the "rest" continues to sit in the dry-dock.  I realize that reforms are difficult but kicking the can down the road does not provide for answers. One cannot expect countries to look on forever and be helpful, while they have to be content watching  bridge players while not being allowed at the table.  Responsibility is the brainchild of participation. One cannot continue with a static post-World War II situation which does not take into account the fundamental changes. Which of the three:  France, India or Brazil, for instance, has a bigger weight? The United Kingdom is likewise a permanent member. Could Germany not claim this seat? An EU seat would solve nothing and would only project dysfunctions which had better remain in Brussels. We need a new Dumbarton Oaks or Bretton Woods with a different set of players. The incremental recognition of change, ahead of the implementation of the consequences thereof, is preferable to denial. The dots need to be connected, so do the players.