Not later than yesterday we got a preview of the internal rivalries which exist in the Republican squadron. It looks more and more like Mitt Romney will become the Krishna under which wheels the competitors will end up crushed. Only Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Obama’s former ambassador to the P.R. of China, Jon Huntsman, make (often crooked) sense. The newcomer from suburban American hell, Rick Santorum, fits more in some Arthur Miller dark play than in the race. At least the US has in this latest aberration a fascist for modern times. Europe has lost yet again another monopoly.
The debate was rather painful to watch. The toxic mix of religious nonsense and lack of worldliness creates an atmosphere of unpleasant provincial amateurism. This is remarkable given that the US has plenty of intellectual and media personalities who have a vast knowledge of world affairs, second to none. The Republican candidates are often excellent in specific areas but hopeless in projecting a coherent world view. Meanwhile, the President and the Secretary of State are re-routing America’s strategic and maritime might towards Asia. The ideas of Francis Fukuyama and Joseph S. Nye prevail in the current diplomatic evaluation in the White House and State Department. Latin America still remains too often neglected and Europe is no longer a priority. The latest issue of Foreign Affairs published an article about the euro which is unflattering at least. Meanwhile, the Americans look as if they will be able to overcome the economical and financial slump, albeit with unorthodox means and over a long period of time. Unlike the Europeans they shun theological debates, and rightly so.
The Obama administration is also charting a new course in warfare, more in tune with technology than the former classical combat doctrine which we see failing in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is also high noon for dealing with Iran but it is wise to avoid confrontation, other than by proxy, intelligence and the “Libyan way”. The administration doesn’t get the credit it deserves. The Secretary of State is pursuing a sophisticated policy, shifting America’s priorities and maritime policies from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Nothing of this is discussed and one is stuck with the banalities and bombast which a Donald Trump spews out like some poker player in Atlantic City.
I still think that a Romney/Obama debate might be enlightening. When Romney leaves the pressures of the campaign behind him, he can be the impressive politician/businessman that he is, and a formidable match for Obama, who will be under pressure to switch from distance to proximity. The Republican and Democratic establishments are sophisticated enough to choose their candidates, as soon as this obligatory populist phase is over. What happens now is embarrassing. It is not representative. Still, it highlights certain frustrations which are legitimate and allows for an overview of a very complex country indeed, wherein class warfare exists and wherein poverty, poor education and alienation are becoming toxic. President Obama, who has achieved a lot after inheriting so little, seems to have underestimated the frustrations which are currently undermining the American dream. Too many are still lured by this utopia and have to find out that the reality is different from what they expected. They can still advance faster here than where they came from but they likewise experience that the effort required is a burden they did not expect. Indeed America has lost its exceptionality, while still retaining its array of almost infinite possibilities. Obama and Romney (if the latter is the Republican candidate) will have to switch from fairy tale talk to hard talk if they want to convince a disenchanted electorate, which in both camps looks more resigned than committed.
For Europeans, too, there is a lesson to be learned, both in the mishandling of democracy here and in their own increasing irrelevance in the world. Before ridiculing the American mess they should look over their shoulder, if they don’t want to become totally shortsighted. In the clash of ideas they are becoming an absent player, while their soft power is slipping away. The only way out is to rejuvenate a new-look Atlantic partnership, which will be difficult, given the US indifference to the EU, which is often considered as failing in the political, monetary and military fields. The Americans are fed-up with wars and one should not expect them to start leading from behind as a rule. The “burden sharing” idea will again become a point of contention in NATO, where the Europeans no longer fulfill their part of their share.
All this leads us away from the parochial Republican primaries which cover mostly the banal, seldom the important and never anything European. The old days of Thatcher/Reagan, the political counterpart of the Ginger Rodgers/Fred Astaire shared chemistry are over and neither Obama nor a Republican will bring them back. Peking Duck and Sushi rule. Americans will be too happy to vote for the chopstick rather than test the temperature of the Euro pessimistic/cynical waters. Angela Merkel will have to be content ruling over what is becoming an Asian archipelago in the new re-oriented projection of the world map.
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