Given the circumstances, Belgium is surviving its “longest day” rather well. It has broken the world record of functioning with a caretaker government for more than one year. As usual, the crisis has been ignited by an insignificant argument, opposing the French and Flemish communities against each other. These types of regular roadblocks have serious consequences, in the first place in financial matters and in adjusting norms to the European requirements. The resulting political consultations tend to drag on forever. Sometimes it looks as if one should resort to some form of Dayton agreement to restart the motor of the state.
Above all this incongruous mess there remains the King. In Belgium the head of state is more than just a figurehead. He has influence, if not power. Albert II has proven to be a patient sovereign, close to the people but above the fray. It can be argued that he “carries” the country and can show authority within the existing constitutional boundaries. This explains in part why the markets have remained rather calm and why there has not been any violence of the kind which occurs in other European countries. He can count on the trust of the business world and of a large segment of the population. His entourage is astute while occasionally not in tune with the changing mentalities in the land.
Nevertheless, too much is linked to one single person--as was the case with his brother King Baudouin I--and the succession will (again) be a difficult one. The heir to the throne, Prince Philippe, is a hard-working, well-meaning and ambitious personality but observers wonder if he will have the “savoir faire” of his father to face the Belgian political minefield. He certainly inherited some stubborn characteristics which can be found with many Coburgs (Leopold III and Baudouin I were the most recent examples) and which could get him into trouble with provincial politicians who too often have not come to terms with globalization. The private man is infinitely more approachable than the public representation which often comes over as too scripted. Belgium needs a king to survive as a nation and it has to be hoped that in the future Prince Philippe will be able to count on the same loyalties as his father. Belgium might be small but it is also a hard nut to crack. Internal politics are merciless and the arbitrage of the head of state is a most tricky exercise. The function of the king has been the subject of many studies (see i.a., the book by Andre Molitor about the specific role of the monarch in Belgium, or the commentaries regarding the “colloque singulier” whereby the content of a private conversation with the king is closed to outsiders.) The endless crisis should be a clear indication that this discreet role of the king should be left untouched. He is both guarantor and confidence builder. Obviously, a lot depends on the charisma and character of the individual, who must be a consensus builder. Belgium owes a lot to its two last kings who were paradoxically able to be master of the game without looking like it. The rise of the young political class will certainly complicate this traditional king’s game. Loyalties erode, respect diminishes, former links based on mutual interest and worldview are bypassed by more selfish, parochial considerations. The gap risks being both generational and ideological. An enlightened approach should be considered to reduce the distance between the various pillars of power, enabling younger generations to feel that they have a stake in the workings of the state, rather than becoming more alienated and indifferent.
Prince Philippe and Princess Mathilde are, in theory, ideally suited to be seen as transformational monarchs, on the condition that they accept to rule over what is, rather than over what they wish. Fatally, the next king will see his constitutional role curtailed but this must not necessarily lead to a diminution of his influence, which when played well, is indispensable. The absurd, short-sighted gerrymandering of the country needs to be buffered. If the future king can project a more “British cool” image and be seen as being in tune with the mood of the country he will find himself in a “win/ win” situation. A lot will depend on his choice of collaborators who will have to be close to the political, cultural, economical trends (as King Albert II is) of the moment.
The façade of the Royal Palace will be in need of a major clean-up.
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