GREAT EXPECTATIONS?

It was expected and it arrived on time. President Abbas asked for statehood to the United Nations along the pre-1967 war lines. In doing so he is taking enormous risks, getting support from the well-meaning as well as from the rogue states and entities. At the same time he might alienate many Europeans, the United States, and, last but not least, Israel. The Quartet is still painfully intervening (deadlines without providing for a stop of the settlements, might condemn it to be an other non-starter.) The deliberations in the Security Council, when and if they happen, will take time. Besides the American veto is the sword of Damocles which might behead a legitimate but ill-timed ambition.

History makes strange U-turns. We find ourselves back in the times wherein Jefferson felt obliged to intervene against the Barbary states, and in doing so starting an American involvement in the region which has experienced ups and downs. I could not help feeling for a visibly tired American secretary of state who has invested intelligence, creativity and patience in a peace process that made such a hard landing, while nothing can be achieved without the involvement of Washington. President Abbas, too, deserves understanding, stuck in a surreal situation, having no control over Gaza and receiving the unwelcome backing of Iran and its mortal siblings.

The Pax Americana and the outstanding tradition of the ”Arabists” in the State Department are on hold. Meanwhile, the geopolitical outlook in the region is becoming irrational. Syria remains a window of opportunities for Iran as long as the Alawite Rolex clique can hold to power. The cold peace between Israel and Egypt sits in the deep freeze. Iraq, after the surge, can still be, albeit unpredictable, a buffer against Iran. Yemen and Somalia could easily become creepy hangouts for the modern pirates. Ransoms being paid for recuperating hijacked vessels remind us again of President Madison’s words: “The United States while they wish for war with no nation, will buy peace with none.”

The Palestinian issue reminds me of the zoological efforts of bringing two primates together which refuse to mate. All efforts or enticements fail for lack of hormones, sex appeal, or whatever. Left alone, the Palestinians will not even be able to find the exit door. This is not for lack of intelligence but for lack of a common strategy. The same syndrome prevails in all Arab countries and communities which are divided for ancestral or bigoted reasons. Israel for its part sits alone in an ocean of obscurantism and must deal with its own segment of zealots who are hooked to mortar and pseudo-biblical codicils.

The French suggestion which was made is a good one because it creates time (again) to breathe and to arrive at a reasonable arrival point. Netanyahu left the door open. He should at the same time not antagonize the Turks who could play a major role, both positive or negative. The Egyptian behavior might not be to his taste but he had better swallow it. The Americans should continue to be the primary actors even if they wisely keep a lower profile. After all, if they have to resort to the veto-–and hopefully not be alone in this--they will have a lot of explaining to do, being themselves in favor of a two-state solution. Israel and the Palestinians should indeed carry the burden of bilateral talks. The Fatah faction should have the guts to rein in Hamas and its charter.

The US, the Quartet and Tony Blair might be well-advised to convince the Palestinians to give President Sarkozy’s “intermediary” a chance. America is in pre-electoral mood and President Obama is already more tuned to political reality than international necessity. His temperament is closer to the one of Fabius Cunctator wearing down Hannibal rather than confronting him. American movement will be difficult in the short term and the Europeans should fill the void. There is a need for movement even if it looks more like shadow boxing than a reality check.

Israel might have to deal with hybrid uprisings, a new Intifada and the USA might have to confront an increased terrorism, if indeed they feel obliged to let the sword fall. They should not stand alone after having spent so much political and economic capital for so long. The Europeans rebuilt Gaza from scratch (airport, port, financial support) and they, too, deserve more than being mere bystanders. Both Israel and the Palestinians should be wise enough to realize where their real interests and supporters are. It is only normal that the time has come for them to pay back.