Henrry Kissinger: on China

Henry Kissinger: On China

Dr. Kissinger‘s latest book is a trademark for all the qualities we liked in his past writings: professional skill, sense of surprise, humor and a “Weltanschauung”, which he shares with the likes of Metternich, Richelieu or Bismarck. The book is occasionally also somehow strangely dated, because the likes of Mao, Zhou Enlai or Nixon no longer hold power. Kissinger’s diplomatic ”Houdini-like performance” here (or in the Middle East) cannot be repeated in this globalized world, where hybrid non-states are overtaking diplomatic niceties.
After 40 years the author still remains under the spell of the former Chinese way of handling international affairs, when, after a long isolation, a resurrected combination of manners and mannerisms contributed to the creation of an atmosphere wherein the visitor found himself overwhelmed. The Chinese were masters in producing a “uniqueness“ which still prevails today. Their famous wei qi game surrounds and encircles the other party, which ends up feeling comatose. The description of the various encounters with Mao and Zhou are part John Le Carre, part Montesquieu (“Les letters Persanes”). The collapse of the Soviet Union made those long-standing former diplomatic premises obsolete. The “balance of power imperative” was one of the many casualities of its demise. We live now in a veiled world, where warfare as we knew it, and classical political science are taken hostage by a new breed of enemies who have no taste for classical diplomatic arrangements.
Still, the communiqué which resulted from the Mao/Nixon meeting continues after all those years to rule the bilateral relations between the USA and China. Nixon comes out of this saga as an informed, skilled statesman, in full control of his diplomatic game and initiative. This is a scenario for an opera (which was created, by the way, by the American composer John Adams to universal acclaim) and the consequences of this extraordinary move still rule both sides in their mutual off and on “stand-offs”. Dr. Kissinger has a tendency to return again and again to the secret visit, which in Zhou’s words shook the world. Hence there is a tendency to be too lenient when unpleasant themes such as Tibet, human rights, Taiwan, North Korea or Tiananmen come up.
The lights of the Eastern China seaboard still continue to overtake the dim landscape in Western China. Problems such as migration, minorities, unequal distribution of wealth are part of the diplomatic agenda but the pressure applied on the Chinese remains measured. In all fairness, it has to be admitted that China, under the current leadership, has advanced on most fronts, implementing the ambitions of Deng Xiaoping, initiator of the modernization and of the concept of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Chinese neighbors were initially positive because they benefited from China’s rise. Nowadays they are more circumspect since they don’t know if the Cheshire cat is going to choose to claw or to purr. Actually China has only two dysfunctional allies at its borders: North Korea and Myanmar. The other Asian countries are very suspicious with regard to Beijing’s maritime ambitions in the South China Sea and prefer the assurances of the USA to the often erratic-looking moves of the Middle Kingdom, which become more aggressive when its core interests are at stake.
Dr. Kissinger suggests that the two versions of Chinese and American exceptionalism might consider the creation of a Pacific Community. This could lead to a de facto condominium which would raise eyebrows elsewhere in Asia. The almost psychological tendency of the West to avoid confrontation with China does not serve Western interests. One can argue that the mess in which the West finds itself today should first prioritize a revision of the Atlantic community, where our moral, economical, financial and political values match. It has also to be recognized that the political arsenal we inherited after World War II is unfair and no longer representative. One can no longer act as if globalization did not have consequences worldwide. We are in need of a structural adjustment and international institutions which are no longer clubs for the happy few but which allow all parties “to face the music”. The survival of universal principles is at stake here if we want to avoid human rights “a la carte”. The West had better be prepared, keeping its house in order, before venturing into unchartered territory.
Soon China will have a new leadership. The princelings are waiting at the gate. It looks almost certain that Hu and Wei will be replaced by Vice-President Xi Jinping and by the Deputy Prime Minister Li Keqiang. Bo Xilai might also leave Chongqing for the Politburo in Beijing. The future will probably be more about overall assertive continuity than about fundamental change. We will probably live with a new slogan as empty as its predecessors (“Three precedents”, “Harmonious Society”). The role of Confucianism, lauded one day, vilified the next, remains a riddle. His statue on Tiananmen came as fast as it went. In this period of political and generational change, a degree of nervousness rules. Despite the travels, the missions, the BRICS, the financial/economical spiderwebs, the Middle Kingdom remains a power with more interests than friends.
Realpolitik is the ultimate Chinese answer. There is no one who understands the potential implications of such a strategy better than Dr. Kissinger. Can we expect a new book? The page was turned by the willpower of three Giants. The new storyline needs the foresight of the surviving ghostwriter.